Winter Thoughts & Hopes 2016/17

[DAVID SNOW]

3 minutes ago, cheese said:

I don't intend on living for thousands of years I'm afraid. Good luck to you though!

We wont! But the weather will

[hillbilly]

Maybe we are in a period where global warming has changed our weather where winters are milder with jus a few odd exceptions like 2010 and 2013  .what seems strange to me more than anything  is getting  far more temps like 12 and 13 in winter even at night yet far more identical temps as a high in summer are we heading  for one season a year?

[Terminal Moraine]

On 08/12/2016 at 13:41, reef said:

If we were getting anything near average then it wouldn't be too bad, but in recent decades the frequency of lying snow has fallen massively. On that chart for 1981-2010 we're in the 5-10 days category, yet from 1988-2016 we've averaged only 2.2 days of lying snow in December.

 

Agree with that although here the greatest change has been in January and February. December's average has shown little change due to a fairly high number of days with lying snow in 2009 and 2010. Below are the mean number of days with lying snow at 0900 here for the 13 year period 1978-1990 compared to 2004-2016 ( 2003-2015 in the case of December)

                         1978-1990                  2004-2016

January                  13.1                             5.5

February                11.6                             6.8

March                     5.2                             3.4

November               2.0                             1.1

December              4.8                             5.1

Annual                 36.7                           23.4                 

 

[AderynCoch]

On 8. 12. 2016 at 15:09, snowray said:

Quite frankly it should not take that much for lowland UK to get a day or two of snow that settles in Dec on a regular basis, I mean it regularly snows in Greece, Southern Italy, Turkey, Ciprus, The holy land and Middle East Generally, Egypt, Lybia, Morocco, Iraq......The other day it was snowing on high ground in of all places Hawaii!!!

Just seems that we lock in a mild patern that goes on and on for ever once it gets started, and we regularly end up with the juicy Winter set ups and charts just outside of Winter proper, look at the great charts we had in Oct/Nov 2016! Bet we see fab Northern blocking in April, May, June next year....

This.

I understand the argument that the same synoptics as cold spells of yesteryear would not be as cold today, but that has not been the problem of recent winters - it's been simply due to horrendous synoptics. Would a Euro High have delivered snow to Blighty even during the Little Ice Age? I very much doubt it. There's plenty of cold around, it's just that the UK is having no luck whilst North America is basking in it. Again. When the right synoptics align with the right time of year we can still hit the jackpot, as in 2010.

[snowray]

3 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

This.

I understand the argument that the same synoptics as cold spells of yesteryear would not be as cold today, but that has not been the problem of recent winters - it's been simply due to horrendous synoptics. Would a Euro High have delivered snow to Blighty even during the Little Ice Age? I very much doubt it. There's plenty of cold around, it's just that the UK is having no luck whilst North America is basking in it. Again. When the right synoptics align with the right time of year we can still hit the jackpot, as in 2010.

Spot on, agree with you 100%.

Look at N America, lots of very cold air moving down into the states, they are about to get their usual pre-Christmas severe cold and snow while we get another near miss in spite of all the nice looking blues just to our East, this is what happens most years, but I think some have already forgotten Dec 2010 when we scored a much deserved bullseye along with much of Northwestern Europe.

I am still keeping a very open mind about this Winter, even Christmas week might turn up some surprises, its way too early to write things off for last 1/3 December, if we don't see any of the white stuff some decent frosts/freezing fog at the very least should manifest readily with the ever present feature of this quasi-scandi high/Euro slug reaserting itself and looking as if it might do yet another rise and repeat on us in late Dember, eventually it may even turn into something quite special.

Edited December 10, 2016 by snowray

[Summer Sun]

BBC weather longer range (after 16th)

Settling down

Chance of rain in north

Frost and Fog

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/feeds/38275843

[Methuselah]

Last words on latest BBC forecast: At least it'll be mild! Aaargh!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

29 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Last words on latest BBC forecast: At least it'll be mild! Aaargh!

Sadly, they know that most people prefer mild above all else at this time of year, even if it means a Bartlett set-up with endless days of gloom thanks to sheets of stratus.  Many don't even like cold, crisp, frosty weather with an anticyclone parked over the UK as they don't want to have to scrape their car windscreen or dress for warmth.  For these people, the weather is either convenient or inconvenient, and, as peoples' lives in cities become ever more divorced from nature and the world outside their homes and offices, it almost becomes an irrelevance.  The number of people for whom the weather is either important or interesting is, I suspect, much lower than people like us realise or care to admit.

Edited December 10, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Weather-history]

3 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

This.

I understand the argument that the same synoptics as cold spells of yesteryear would not be as cold today, but that has not been the problem of recent winters - it's been simply due to horrendous synoptics. Would a Euro High have delivered snow to Blighty even during the Little Ice Age? I very much doubt it. There's plenty of cold around, it's just that the UK is having no luck whilst North America is basking in it. Again. When the right synoptics align with the right time of year we can still hit the jackpot, as in 2010.

Two years after the great winter of 1683-84 came the winter of 1685-86 which was exceptionally mild. The difference between those two winters must have been remarkable. 

[Weather-history]

28 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Last words on latest BBC forecast: At least it'll be mild! Aaargh!

I detest that term when there is a severe gale blowing, storm warnings are out, squally rain or showers are driving through and they add on at least it will be mild. Who gives a monkey's, wondering if your roof is going to stay on or you could be flooded out. 

 

Edited December 10, 2016 by Weather-history

[Summer Sun]

53 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Last words on latest BBC forecast: At least it'll be mild! Aaargh!

I guess you were watching the same one as I saw? Just before 6pm on BBC One with Darren Bett?

Edited December 10, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

I guess you were watching the same one as I saw? Just before 6pm on BBC One with Darren Bett?

In deed, SS...It takes me all the way back to the 1960s!

[March]

3 hours ago, snowray said:

Spot on, agree with you 100%.

Look at N America, lots of very cold air moving down into the states, they are about to get their usual pre-Christmas severe cold and snow while we get another near miss in spite of all the nice looking blues just to our East, this is what happens most years, but I think some have already forgotten Dec 2010 when we scored a much deserved bullseye along with much of Northwestern Europe.

I am still keeping a very open mind about this Winter, even Christmas week might turn up some surprises, its way too early to write things off for last 1/3 December, if we don't see any of the white stuff some decent frosts/freezing fog at the very least should manifest readily with the ever present feature of this quasi-scandi high/Euro slug reaserting itself and looking as if it might do yet another rise and repeat on us in late Dember, eventually it may even turn into something quite special.

It's not luck, North America is almost entirely within a different climate zone from us. That's like saying we're unlucky to not get +30C average highs in summer. 

[mountain shadow]

My Winter thought is "when will it start?"

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

My Winter thought is "when will it start?"

Probably March and April

Edited December 10, 2016 by Summer Sun

[AderynCoch]

17 minutes ago, March said:

It's not luck, North America is almost entirely within a different climate zone from us. That's like saying we're unlucky to not get +30C average highs in summer. 

It is luck when you consider the temperature anomalies. Much of North America is seeing well-below average temperatures while the UK is seeing well-above.

[snowray]

18 minutes ago, March said:

It's not luck, North America is almost entirely within a different climate zone from us. That's like saying we're unlucky to not get +30C average highs in summer. 

Where did I say anything about luck? Confused

[Paul]

For those wanting a snow fix

 

[Hanny]

Evening all, this is to going sound very 'unconventional' and not intended as a ramp but with all the lrf's,flip-flopping of the models, I think that a cold spell with some flurries will arrive sometime over the holidays.

ive tried to stand back and view the many posts with the various Synoptics as a whole, I get a gut feeling that their is something brewing in the background that 'may' produce a favouble outcome.

 

Edited December 10, 2016 by Hanny

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Where did I say anything about luck? Confused

Ahh I see Aderyn mentioned luck. Well theres certainly an element of something that seems like like luck at play but its probably got more to do with other factors like the gulf stream, obviously N America has a diferent climate but some years even over there Winters will be milder and some colder, its in the lap of the Weather gods. The main point though that was made and I agree with this, is that with the right synoptics we can still get the sort of Winter weather in the UK that we have always had in the form of cold and snow. Large sprawling conglomerates like London the will undoubtedly become warmer though.

Example, I have cousins in Quebec who were convinced back in the 80s that the winters of old were gone, not much snow anymore they were saying, they couldn't take the Skidoos out North for 100s of miles like they used to because there were snowless patches, etc. Now its virtually back to normal, in fact there was so much snow in Montreal a few years ago that it was all piled up for a while in car parks and they were having fights over a parking space, people were exiting their houses from the 1st floor windows.

[damianslaw]

We had heavy snow which delivered a cover on the 30 April this year, after the exceptional mild winter weather - our weather is perplexing, what it delivers now has absolutely not bearing on what it may deliver in a month or two months time - keep an open mind at all times. I really do despise doom and gloom winter over posts at this time of the year, bin them! People's physce becomes obscured at this time of year, not least by the winter wonderland image of christmas - its  terrible time of year in many respects, where emotions become the better of people, normal order often resumes once christmas day is over, and also when winter normally gets it act together as well. This time of year is renowned for delivering mild atlantic fest weather.

Edited December 10, 2016 by damianslaw

[pegg24]

2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Probably March and April

We will get a winter set up in June and July and the weather will be 15c again 

[LetItSnow!]

I think the most potential for cold and snowy weather lies in February/March this winter, just a hunch I have. We are overdue a proper cold winter, and I have a weird feeling that 17/18 will be one to remember, but let's not get too far ahead... 

Edited December 11, 2016 by LetItSnow!

[Gustywind]

9 hours ago, AderynCoch said:

It is luck when you consider the temperature anomalies. Much of North America is seeing well-below average temperatures while the UK is seeing well-above.

Luck would suggest it's purely random and down to chance that we're not experiencing cold currently and N America is.

I believe the increasingly zonal winters are down to loss of arctic sea ice and an increasingly strong polar vortex -  root cause global warming. Unfortunately the above symptoms lead to a stronger jet meaning milder, wetter and stormier winters for ourselves. By contrast the US may actually benefit from the stronger polar vortex in terms of colder and snowier winters.

[Norrona2015]

My gut feeling is the majority won't see snow this winter.