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Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)

When we have op disagreement then we like to look to the the ens for guidance. The eps days 10 to 12 are usually a consistent tool. take a look at the 24 hour changes in output on mean and mean/anomolys for current day 10 back to Tuesday's day 12

note the big anomoly change nw Europe and also aleutians. suspect that this building aleutian ridge is responsible for some of the shenanigans we are currently seeing in the output. The polar field also changing itself about re vortex placement and depth. 

IMG_0468.PNG

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Has turned an upper trough into a weak upper ridge within 48 hours over nw Europe. Very progressive for the eps. 

I wonder if a cluster exists on the current output days 10/15 where a ridge has managed to establish far enough to our north to advect any really cold continental air our way.  It would be feasible now! 

Edited by bluearmy
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Deary me! I don't think I have ever seen such a huge spread on the T2 temp ecm extended ensembles for debilt.

Yes,some 25,26-27 degrees difference toward the end

pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes,some 25,26-27 degrees difference toward the end

pluim_06260_0_12_60.png

 

Bigger mild cluster though unfortunately, mind you, that very cold cluster could be the cluster that advects really cold continental air our way, have to wait until 2330 hours to find out.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Bigger mild cluster though unfortunately, mind you, that very cold cluster could be the cluster that advects really cold continental air our way, have to wait until 2330 hours to find out.

Yes compared to the 00z

pluim_06260_0_00_60.png

and has been shown across the models of late,what shall we get,screaming northerlies,settled high pressure or milder SWly's,hope not the latter.

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Tonight's 6-10 anomalies are not a great help in solving the evolution puzzle The GEFS an NOAA are more or less on the same page with the EPS a couple of pages further on so just comparing the former and the latter.

The differences essentially centre around the ridging in the NW Atlantic and the HP N. Canada/Greenland and the Newfoundland trough.

The GEFS has this much more amplified than the EPS and this partially blocks the western Atlantic veering the upper flow to the NW and with the trough in the east to the north of the UK this will allow forcing from both south and north of Greenland and troughs could certainly impact the UK, and Scotland in particular. Given the source of the air this could certainly lead to transitory, wintry, shots.

The EPS on the other hand has any block further west This effectively cuts off the NW upper flow and replaces it with one from the south west whilst at the same time promoting ridging in mid Atlantic which drifts east to be near the UK whilst the trough is now away to the NE. Given the source of the upper flow temperatures will quite likely be a little above average and certainly the chances of wintry outbreaks, a la GEFS, are removed. But given the large discrepancy shown confidence in all of this is very low so absolutely no point in looking further ahead at this stage but just to note both are retrogressing the GOA HP

610day.03.gifecm_eps_z500a_5d_nh_11.pnggefs_z500a_5d_nh_41.png

 

 

Edited by knocker
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stewfox Accomplished

stewfox

Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Great post, very funny. I hope you'll be doing this nightly throughout the winter.  

I'm trying to summarise 20 pages and hope I have shown a fair reflection of members thoughts. 

.Tomorrow will UKMO stay in hospital, go on life support  or 'flip 'and be the 'best model', the 12Z did get a horrible beating today :sorry:

Edited by stewfox
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted (edited)

Can't post charts as on mobile but I smell a full GFS backtrack to the ECM route here... Energy coming out of the US different but looking much more EC like.

Edited by Weathizard
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Weathizard said:

Can't post charts as on mobile but I smell a full GFS backtrack to the ECM route here... Energy coming out of the US different but looking much for EC like.

Yes, this run a busted flush already, unless it delivers deep in FI.

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted (edited)

t132 Charts...

18z gfsnh-0-132.png?18    12z gfsnh-0-138.png?12

Edited by Ravelin
Whoops, labelled wrong
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, this run a busted flush already, unless it delivers deep in FI.

It looks very pleasant so far, very anticyclonic / tranquil:)

h500slp.png

h500slp (1).png

h500slp (2).png

h500slp (3).png

h500slp (4).png

Edited by Frosty.
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

It looks very pleasant so far, very anticyclonic / tranquil:)

Not what really floats my boat although if its very cold with temps struggling above freezing and nights circa -8 then its a lot better that Bartletts, anyway I might (and hope) ive called the run wrong, we may get a later retrogression although id struggle to place faith in it with the chopping and changing.

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igloo Enthusiast

igloo

Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
Posted
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, this run a busted flush already, unless it delivers deep in FI.

i have seen this countless times with the GFS over the years it takes 2-3 extra runs to catch up with the euros hopefully the ECM monthly will show a more bullish outlook for mid december

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

t132 Charts...

12z gfsnh-0-132.png?18    18z gfsnh-0-138.png?12

You got the runs wrong way round Ravelin,but i see where you are coming from,the 18z phases the Newfoundland shortwave more so with the Greenland one so early as t96

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

It would be quite ironic if shortwave energy moving over the top of the block snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.

gfsnh-0-162.png?18

 

LOL the last and most important one after series of 4 or 5 phased with the trough of course stalls and deepens instead of pushing through and phasing.

gfsnh-0-180.png?18

Not that it matters as it is almost certainly already wrong by 120, so all JFF really.

Edited by Mucka
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

It would be quite ironic if shortwave energy moving over the top of the block snatched victory from the jaws of defeat.

gfsnh-0-162.png?18

Nope - its crap now - ironically its more like the 12z now than about 70 hours earlier!!!

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Kentish Snowman in Yorks Experienced

Kentish Snowman in Yorks

Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
Posted (edited)

Well if the ECM and GFS 18z is anywhere near the mark the Met Office's talk of wet and windy weather for the second half of next week looks way off.

Settled, dry and cold looks the order of the day for the foreseeable.....until all the models flip back to a GFS 6z type solution in the morning!  :cold:

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nope - its crap now - ironically its more like the 12z now than about 70 hours earlier!!!

Agreed 91 , I was hoping for a revival but not on this occasion .

 

Have to laugh all the ups and downs already and its only November , imagine the fun in D J F

Edited by Banbury
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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Looks like Freddie Kruger got into the GFS 18hrs run and has inputed some Nightmare On Elm Street type synoptics for coldies.

I don't want to flog a dead horse but those shortwaves are causing chaos in the Atlantic, here we have the stationary one waiting for an injection of low heights from Greenland to deepen and trap the UK on the wrong side of the jet.

Does the NW swear filter know French because I'm about to lose it big time! lol

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nope - its crap now - ironically its more like the 12z now than about 70 hours earlier!!!

All academic but that is very close to giving a Northerly, just a more convoluted route and delayed version. If that last shortwave doesn't stall and develop and instead phased with the trough we would get a different outcome. It is all fine margins that can make differences for our little Island.

Edited by Mucka
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Gfs 18z becomes slightly milder later next week but high pressure stays in control for the most part with any unsettled weather restricted to the far north but for a while next week it looks chilly by day and frosty by night. It then turns unsettled with a deepening atlantic low bringing a spell of wet and windy weather across the uk followed by brighter showery conditions but the heaviest and most frequent showers across northwestern uk but as the trough pushes to the east it opens the door to an Arctic incursion with frosts and sleet / snow showers. The run ends with high pressure building to the north and the uk in a chilly ESEly airflow.

ukmaxtemp.png

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prectypeuktopo.png

h850t850eu (1).png

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h500slp.png

h850t850eu.png

Edited by Frosty.
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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted (edited)

Some ECM weekly updates, still looking very good mid December...

IMG_3186.JPG

Never mind that's last weeks haha!

Edited by bradythemole
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, bradythemole said:

Some ECM weekly updates, still looking very good mid December...

IMG_3186.JPG

Charts from a week ago.

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