Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[igloo]

18 hours ago, igloo said:

19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The ukmo is well known for poor verification at T+144 hours, something I've learned from being in here for the last 10 years. 

yes we are better sticking to the ECM for the 144h charts interesting the GEM trys to form a scandi HP but then decides to flatten everything the models i feel have a good hold on this the first few weeks of december looks like it will be wet and windy we can only hope the met office and ECM longer range models have it nailed for mid december for more favrorable blocking or are they just churning out dross

 

Edited November 27, 2016 by igloo

[gottolovethisweather]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its an upgrade, looks to me like Stewart Rampling's face if you look at the whole hemisphere!!!!!

You might have to go your GP if that truly looks like Stewart's face I reckon, lol.  Or if like me, Specsavers. GFS latest a bit of a snoozefest but no broad changes in the next seven or so days so no panicking from me. Could turn mild, could stay on the cool to cold side by December 2nd or 3rd, will be largely dry up to then, a case of as you were, outside of deep FI.

Edited November 27, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[carinthian]

 Looks like the UKMO holding its own at 144hours against the more progressive American Models. Still the British Isles high ridges on a nw/se axis and holds the Atlantic at bay. Still lower heights over the Azores. Also good development for Med Low circulation to form in post 144 hours. See what ECM brings soon. I think it will side with the UKMO charts tonight.

 C

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

to my untrained eye thats a worry with larger vortex segment canadian side

The strat vortex is displaced right over the other side right up to the top and theres a split about to ensue up to the mid strat so it might not be causing us any bother for a good while.

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Nice easterly coming to close out the run...just as was shown on the 0z

Yes and proper uppers the nearest they've been to smashing us.

[Man With Beard]

24 minutes ago, ICETAB said:

GEM looks like it might go on to produce a scandi high to me at T144!

Best not mention the GEM tonight. Uppers close to +15C in NE England at T216!!!

Evaluating all the runs so far ... can't quite get the Atlantic split that would keep a ridge close to Iceland and send enough energy underneath - but it's very very close. And yes, even a build of heights through Scandi must be possible at even T180. 

But odds perhaps 70/30 in favour of any ridge getting sunk by the jet close to Greenland. For now.

[Seasonality]

8 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Start of the march from the east. 

You want to be careful not to jinx it with a username like yours

[SMU]

Last one from me - Sunday roast beckons...

After many many moons of watching the GFS & how it behaves the 12z is exactly what I expected from the run in terms evolution-

The model along the way has made attempts to resolve a difficult pattern & certainly the 96-120timeframe has seen the largest positive change- 

Firstly more trough disruption & energy seperation evident

you can see there is a marked difference from 06-12 with trough disruption there - Now the GFS has 'seen' this expect further marked emphasis on a bigger distance between the 2 over the next 24 hours -

because this change is energy allows more elevation of the high - the subsequent cold air feeding south through scandi is further west-

The 12z sees a significant correction west with the upper air cold -maybe 300 or so miles

This is all because of a small change at 72 hours in terms of energy-

imagine the total amount of energy moving east is 30 M/S then the split on the 06z was probably 20 NE 10 SE ( this is just estimations BTW ) - The updated GFS has probably gone to 17 NE 13 SE allowing for a slower eastward progression-

Further out we see the ramifications of that marginal swing in the early stages & what it means at 186 & for the mild lovers they wont notice this through the red tinted glasses -

You see if look close the 12z carving out a scandi high & even closer distorting a little energy SE

net result ?

A correction of about 500 miles west on the cold out if europe-

so theres your afternoon- The GFS timeline to move to the euros is about another 24 hours & by then colder uppers ( sub -5) could be on offer for england - ita whether we can just squeeze more from any undercut to deliver-

The GFS & to a certain extent will be around 24 hours behind that so expect smaller incremental corrections-

Important ECM tonight as that should be better on the money with the southern energy ......

S

[nick sussex]

Don't you just love the GFS insults you for T300hrs then suddenly sends you a bunch of flowers!

Putting aside the GFS tragic attempt at not becoming public enemy number one its still looking less than enthused earlier on. The UKMO has quite a bizarre looking T144hrs output but at least its unlikely to sink the high.

Now that the warm up acts have been and gone we await the ECM.

[weatherguy]

I know it's pointless getting excited about extreme FI, but lookey here at +384h...

Stonking chart! First modelled significant cold spell I can think of so far this month, which is encouraging.  

[knocker]

I don't think the end of the GFS is quite so daft as it looks This to me was always the most likely way to HP building to the NW and thus an easterly component. I did post this this morning so just to update. And I only had tongue partly in cheek The movement of the ridge east from Canada.

[SLEETY]

9 minutes ago, weatherguy said:

I know it's pointless getting excited about extreme FI, but lookey here at +384h...

Stonking chart! First modelled significant cold spell I can think of so far this month, which is encouraging.  

if only an fl chart would verify just for once,this would be the one ,if your after bitter east winds and snow showers in East,in all years of model watching i,ve only seen one run verify at 384 and still be the same at t0 hours

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

I don't think the end of the GFS is quite so daft as it looks This to me was always the most likely way to HP building to the NW and thus an easterly component. I did post this this morning so just to update. And I only had tongue partly in cheek The movement of the ridge east from Canada.

Is this a RAMP from Knocker??

[Dorsetbred]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

if only an fl chart would verify just for once,this would be the one ,if your after bitter east winds and snow showers in East,in all years of model watching i,ve only seen one run verify at 384 and still be the same at t0 hours

Agreed, given that @240 we are still way  way out in la la land, anything @ 384 has to be a dream, and not reality.

Given the current trend for such swings as seen over the past few days, it's becoming clear that anything a long way out is a model wobbly..

Edited November 27, 2016 by Dorsetbred

[weatherguy]

5 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Agreed, given that @240 we are still way  way out in la la land, anything @ 384 has to be a dream, and not reality.

Given the current trend for such swings as seen over the past few days, it's becoming clear that anything a long way out is a model wobbly..

I did say it was extreme FI! Was just such a nice chart it was worth posting, nonetheless

Encouraging signs from the GFS as it trends towards a less progressive solution today, still a way to go though if we are to get some proper UK cold.  All eyes on the ECM next up. 

[Frosty.]

Bank

 

[MR EXTREMES]

20 minutes ago, knocker said:

I don't think the end of the GFS is quite so daft as it looks This to me was always the most likely way to HP building to the NW and thus an easterly component. I did post this this morning so just to update. And I only had tongue partly in cheek The movement of the ridge east from Canada.

what worries me is this a scary clown prank 

[Frosty.]

2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Let's hope there's something worth ramping at T+384 hours.

Wow I was right.. all I need now is the winning lottery numbers!

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[Snowman.]

46 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

to my untrained eye thats a worry with larger vortex segment canadian side

Nothing to worry about.

Two charts from two famous winters. One from a recent winter.

  

 

The chart from the GFS

Don't fret and enjoy the wild ride.

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

After next weekend chilly snap the mean remains above 0 for the remainder of the run

 

Even Inverness doesn't look too cold the snow row only hit's 6

Edited November 27, 2016 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Being greedy, I would like the high to be further north with a stronger Easterly turning the north sea into a snow making machine, with a bit of tinkering we would have a January 1987 on our hands!

Edited November 27, 2016 by Frosty.

[andymusic]

All the good stuff is in FI folks - we will have to wait to see if it continues in that way - just a trend right now - that's all it is

[SMU]

Noone commenting-

ECM 144- very nice.

[Tom Jarvis]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Noone commenting-

ECM 144- very nice.

v nice indeed steve. I think some of them r in shock

Edited November 27, 2016 by Tom Jarvis

[Man With Beard]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Noone commenting-

ECM 144- very nice.

It's agony Steve. So darn close to cutting off some heights to the north ... even just a little bit would be game on for cold. Will it happen at T168?