Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Current trend is for the upper trough to drop just west of the uk. Suspect this is to do with the models underestimating the strength of the blocking to our east. 

Disagreement in the longer term between the eps and GEFS re how long the Russian/Eastern European anomoly persists. Eps not letting go of them. 

I also suspect the amazing extent of the snow cover over to our east is also causing this westwards correction.

[Scandinavian High.]

I wonder if we will ever see this again January 1987 parts of  Country buried in snow south east England 

Edited November 13, 2016 by abbie123

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I wonder if we will ever see this again January 1987 parts of  Country buried in snow south east England 

What an incredible cold spell that was. Proper Siberian weather in the UK I got 2 or 3 snow days off school for that amazing event.

[Snowman.]

Could be an interesting 18z, total lack of a trough over scandi compared to the 12, might shove some more heights northwards.

18z  12z 

 

But this slow moving trough is killing me, complete bore as it just spins and slowly sinks south. Possibility for lots of rain on that too. 

Edited November 13, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean doesn't show a mild outlook, the next few days will be mild but then temperatures gradually fall below average and it looks mainly chilly and cyclonic, eventually the trough over the uk fills in situ.

Later in the week ahead it looks rather cold, windy and showery from the NW, the showers turning to sleet and snow over high ground, especially in the north and some of the showers will be heavy with hail and thunder and occasionally merge into longer periods of rain. Then, just like the operational there are signs of a low developing to the southwest and running NE into the uk and becoming a little milder in the process but short-lived and followed by a return to chilly and showery with overnight frosts and fog as winds fall light.

Edited November 13, 2016 by Frosty.

[feb1991blizzard]

28 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

What an incredible cold spell that was. Proper Siberian weather in the UK I got 2 or 3 snow days off school for that amazing event.

I got a week and a half off school for it.

[Spah1]

GFS FI continues to be interesting.

[Snowman.]

Greeny High incoming?

Edited November 13, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Timmytour]

Trough?   Trough?

Pah!

That is not a trough. It is instead an enormous willy!....(for those who remember NTNON)

[feb1991blizzard]

Hello 17th Dec 2010.

 

EDIT  :  Now what we need is it NOT to be an outlier for 850mb temps.

 

Edited November 13, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello 17th Dec 2010.

Excellent end lets hope this we can give GFS a spotters badge

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello 17th Dec 2010.

 

EDIT  :  Now what we need is it NOT to be an outlier for 850mb temps.

 

Absolutely agree, if we get atleast 7 or 8 like this in FI, on the Ensembles, then this could become a real trend. 

[Ravelin]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello 17th Dec 2010.

 

EDIT  :  Now what we need is it NOT to be an outlier for 850mb temps.

 

Quick everybody think nice thoughts about the GFS models for the next 384hrs. Me, I've never doubted it's accuracy at long range, honest! 

Edited November 13, 2016 by Ravelin

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hello 17th Dec 2010.

A few more days it would've been in Boomvile.

[Zakos]

Wow, probably the best anomaly chart ive seen all season!

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Absolutely agree, if we get atleast 7 or 8 like this in FI, on the Ensembles, then this could become a real trend. 

Yes, its no good them zig - zagging on the graph though, they need to be flatlining, they wont all suddenly flip but hopefully a good few more will be in the same ballpark by tomorrow night and most importantly the ECM eps come aboard as well.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Just now, SN0WM4N said:

A few more days it would've been in Boomvile.

Yeah, pity we can't go further, would've loved to see the eye candy charts in the days after.

[karlos1983]

Hmm pub run needs to be treated with some caution. Don't get me wrong I love seeing those charts as much as anyone, but I absolutely refuse to let myself get carried away with a Fl gfs 18z. I of course hope I'm made to look a fool and it verifies bang on 

Edited November 13, 2016 by karlos1983

[lorenzo]

This tune is always good - sometimes it verifies..

[Dancerwithwings]

4 minutes ago, Zakos said:

Wow, probably the best anomaly chart ive seen all season!

 

Hasn't been said for a while 'HOUSE'....or is it....."BANK" 

[Frosty.]

Boom

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

Anyway, putting longer output aside, back end of next week and into the weekend suggests a cold north westerly, bringing significant snow to Northern hills and maybe some of the white stuff to low levels, as far south as the Midlands. Definitely all looking up, at the minute.

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

Anyway, putting longer output aside, back end of next week and into the weekend suggests a cold north westerly, bringing significant snow to Northern hills and maybe some of the white stuff to low levels, as far south as the Midlands. Definitely all looking up, at the minute.

Looking good for those higher ground up north. Probably another warning for snow which would make 2 this year which is more than we had last year and it's only November!

[Zakos]

Its not without support either.

It may be 2 weeks out, but the GFS has definitely been hinting at a major blocking event here for a while now.

The runs show the atlantic high and the siberian high converging. I believe these highs merge and form a very large block in the atlantic/Greenland area.

Same from the ECM. Once that area of low heights drops south towards Spain, it looks likely to me that the UK is going to experience fairly blocked conditions, hopefully we'll end up in a cold airflow too!

Edited November 13, 2016 by Zakos

[ITSY]

Superb ending. Over to the ensembles, then the 00Z's. Trends trends trends...

(In the same way I have constantly said not to take milder solutions seriously, please also view these charts tentatively until we begin to see cross model consistency. It is only the patterns that are significant and noteworthy at this point)...