Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, wild weather said:

54 years ?

For a minute there, I thought I'd aged 10 years since 2 p.m!

[gottolovethisweather]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I suppose the frustrating thing about the outputs so far is that you've got a PV that's not really interested in setting up in its normal position but yet the models aren't really doing anything to move towards a colder outlook.

The issue at the moment is that low which drops down lands in precisely the area we don't want and then spends days filling. You either want this low much further east or west.

As it stands where it ends up means it will be like watching paint dry before we can move to something more profitable in terms of cold.

 

Time for a Nick S doodling speciality?

[northwestsnow]

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

UKMO 144 looks enticing. Siberian high better aligned than GFS at the same time.

 

[nick sussex]

Just now, gottolovethisweather said:

Time for a Nick S doodling speciality?

Lol! Ah you missed my paint jobs! I'll see what the ECM has to say first. Hopefully that won't stick the low in the worst possible position.

[gottolovethisweather]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! Ah you missed my paint jobs! I'll see what the ECM has to say first. Hopefully that won't stick the low in the worst possible position.

 

Indeed I do. Which timeframe are we talking about? D5 , D6 etc. 

Edited November 13, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

22 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Folk know my thoughts and what I think is coming.  This to me is LIA footprint showing, with this year into next the tipping point. That jetstream is like the PV......smacked.   

No I don't know feller ? I think I can guess though #solar minimum lol

[bobbydog]

12 minutes ago, wild weather said:

54 years ?

Yeah got it. Big thumbs, small keys on phone...

[northwestsnow]

GFS still going for snow showers Sat night across NW England/N.wales/parts of the midlands ..

[bobbydog]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I suppose the frustrating thing about the outputs so far is that you've got a PV that's not really interested in setting up in its normal position but yet the models aren't really doing anything to move towards a colder outlook.

The issue at the moment is that low which drops down lands in precisely the area we don't want and then spends days filling. You either want this low much further east or west.

As it stands where it ends up means it will be like watching paint dry before we can move to something more profitable in terms of cold.

I suppose though Nick, there doesn't seem to be much energy in the N hemisphere at all. Consequently, we have the PV flapping around like a wet lettuce. The plus side is, if and when any cold weather does come our way, it could stick around for quite some time.

[bluearmy]

47 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Lots of optimism around for wintry weather to take hold soon but very little in the models to get excited about yet. This day last year we had this in the reliable time frame ....

And what verified 10 days later ...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I suppose the frustrating thing about the outputs so far is that you've got a PV that's not really interested in setting up in its normal position but yet the models aren't really doing anything to move towards a colder outlook.

The issue at the moment is that low which drops down lands in precisely the area we don't want and then spends days filling. You either want this low much further east or west.

As it stands where it ends up means it will be like watching paint dry before we can move to something more profitable in terms of cold.

Exactly, the reason we haven't seen any members flatlining at -10c 850hpa temps (which is the classic ensemble signature for a proper cold spell) is because any Easterly doesn't provide cold enough uppers and any attempted Northerly ends up a west based -NAO.

[Dancerwithwings]

23 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

T240 reliable? 

I do remember that though, as both the 0z and 12z had it.

It was but a fleeting dream 24 hours later though: another example of the ECM op over-amplifying at the end of its run.

Couldn't agree more, 10 days a reliable time frame is not, if I remember ECM was on it's own from the other models.....Anyway that was last year, Now the trend is for cold....I know this because 'knockers' on the missing list 

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS still going for snow showers Sat night across NW England/N.wales/parts of the midlands ..

You'll find nearer the time that at absolute best, will be hills only,

[nick sussex]

16 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Indeed I do. Which timeframe are we talking about? D5 , D6 etc. 

The low that heads se at T144hrs from Greenland. You'll see that  then becomes slow moving filling slowly  near the UK .

[bobbydog]

Anyway, despite the output we shouldn't forget, we still have a little 'Ace up the sleeve'

[gottolovethisweather]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

You'll find nearer the time that at absolute best, will be hills only,

Lend me your time machine and I'll let you know, lol. You may well be right but you may well be wrong, I'll give you a 50/50. 

[fromey]

seems to me that theres a lot more negative lines than positive lines (but im only an amateur at this!!)   which i assume is a good thing NAO thinking about it

Edited November 13, 2016 by fromey
spelling

[Paul_1978]

11 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Anyway, despite the output we shouldn't forget, we still have a little 'Ace up the sleeve'

.....at T+384. 

[Johnp]

14 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Anyway, despite the output we shouldn't forget, we still have a little 'Ace up the sleeve'

Why are these always at 384 hrs?

[Zakos]

It has to be said the models are reluctant to bring in cold air at any fast pace, theyre certainly showing it to be a slow evolution if it occurs.

Im not too phased by the apparent lack of cold 850's showing in the output. The difference between the 00z and 06z today shows how small tweaks in the flow can drastically alter the potency of the air heading our way. This was only at 120 hours out.

As we are heading into December, I would have thought that aslong as a cold pattern manages to sustain itself, we would eventually receive cold air.

The bigger picture looks very good in my opinion as we head into winter proper, a very timid vortex at day 10 from the GFS IMO, for the time of year

Edited November 13, 2016 by Zakos

[northwestsnow]

15 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

You'll find nearer the time that at absolute best, will be hills only,

Thats enturely possible

I still feel robbed from last week when it rained round these parts at 300m and snowed t'other side of the border (Yorky) at about 150m. I'm willing this one into the back of the net !

 

[bobbydog]

12 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

.....at T+384. 

It's shows the best example of the warming signal which is increasing (overall) with each run.

and the strat charts are less volatile, therefore more reliable

Edited November 13, 2016 by bobbydog

[Ali1977]

ECM Looks a bit different at 144, the second low doesn't develop leaving us colder air, and probably quite grey weather!! 

[bobbydog]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM Looks a bit different at 144, the second low doesn't develop leaving us colder air, and probably quite grey weather!! 

It splits the trop  in half at t120 which doesn't happen on the GFS.

Huge differences in just 5 days!

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z shows a generally mild day across the uk tomorrow and again in the south on tuesday due to a mid atlantic airmass but further n / nw it starts to turn cooler with an increasingly north atlantic flow veering to polar maritime and that process accelerates through midweek with lowering heights swinging down towards the uk from the NW with -5 T850's making inroads with showers becoming heavier and more frequent and turning wintry across northern hills with hail, thunder, sleet and snow, a wintry cocktail of weather as significantly colder air sweeps down across the uk with 526/528 dam thicknesses and night frosts. By sunday a vigorous low pushes in from the southwest with wet and breezy / windy weather spreading NE across the uk with potentially a short spell of wet snow on its leading edge across the north, especially high ground..it looks like we are heading for a very unsettled spell..that's what I call trough domination

Edited November 13, 2016 by Frosty.