Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Man With Beard]

6 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I'm one of the biggest cold fans going but at the moment there is no WOW going on........just November weather we should be getting and not the dross from last year. Yes there is potential but until that is been reached it is only potential .

The time of year is still a little against us. Perfect cold synoptics will bring snow - "good" synoptics will just bring very cold rain. It dawned on me today - that's probably what we're going to get by the end of the week away from high ground in the north. It's going to be very unpleasant!

Is this the longest northerly ever btw - from the Arctic to the Canaries?

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The time of year is still a little against us. Perfect cold synoptics will bring snow - "good" synoptics will just bring very cold rain. It dawned on me today - that's probably what we're going to get by the end of the week away from high ground in the north. It's going to be very unpleasant!

Is this the longest northerly ever btw - from the Arctic to the Canaries?

I wouldn't disagree with that , seems a fair assessment

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

14 minutes ago, Banbury said:

I'm one of the biggest cold fans going but at the moment there is no WOW going on........just November weather we should be getting and not the dross from last year. Yes there is potential but until that has  been reached it is only potential 

I agree for the shorter term. Longer term, into the early part of December, There is a lot of potential. I honestly think in the days ahead we'll start to see some "BOOM" charts. I feel this because all longer output nearly is pointing towards cold. EC, JMA, ECMWF monthly and the CFS. 

With a very weak PV, a negative NAO and strat warming, everything is there, all set up nicely, just need to be patient and hope.

Also* would be nice to build some cold in continental Europe before we get our long awaited easterly.

 

[Banbury]

16 minutes ago, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

I agree for the shorter term. Longer term, into the early part of December, There is a lot of potential. I honestly think in the days ahead we'll start to see some "BOOM" charts. I feel this because all longer output nearly is pointing towards cold. EC, JMA, ECMWF monthly and the CFS. 

With a very weak PV, a negative NAO and strat warming, everything is there, all set up nicely, just need to be patient and hope.

Also* would be nice to build some cold in continental Europe before we get our long awaited easterly.

 

Providing the block sits in the perfect position for the UK .......................that 'could' be a stumbling block and of course would be sods law

[Frosty.]

All things considered, like the time of year for example with the meteorological winter still over 2 weeks away. Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks good from my cold point of view, especially the further north you are, it looks just as good as the 00z and last night's equivalent. There would be snow in the forecast, at least for northern hills..and frosty nights for most, especially sharp where there is snow cover..yeah its still November and some of us have already had snow!

Edited November 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Providing the block sits in the perfect position for the UK .......................that 'could' be a stumbling block and of course would be sods law

Ofc, just trying to think of *positive** potentials!

[nick sussex]

Just looking at the ECM De Bilt short ensembles and the operational run was one of the mildest solutions for that area on days 9 and 10.

We'll need to wait for the more detailed ones which show wind direction etc which come out a bit later. Overall the ECM 12hrs op moves away from its 00hrs run whilst the GFS 12hrs has now gone with that 00hrs so perhaps the ECM is picking up on a change and the others might follow.

 

Edited November 12, 2016 by nick sussex

[Gael_Force]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Just looking at the ECM De Bilt short ensembles and the operational run was one of the mildest solutions for that area on days 9 and 10.

We'll need to wait for the more detailed ones which show wind direction etc which come out a bit later. Overall the ECM 12hrs op moves away from its 00hrs run whilst the GFS 12hrs has now gone with that 00hrs so perhaps the ECM is picking up on a change and the others might follow.

 

The control is easterly after the 24th and a very small hint of a cluster there but really just a plate of spaghetti as far as a general picture.

[bluearmy]

The extended eps continue with excellent continuity- southerly jet, high anomolys across the n Atlantic and across to our ne. Low anomolys to our south and southwest. Continental surface cold seems a probability but the position of the Russian ridge seems unlikely to allow any low uppers to get involved. I imagine that there remains a chance that systems could drop in from the north which would seem the only chance to advert low uppers into nw Europe. (Eventually this broad pattern will deliver )

Note the mid Atlantic ridge at day 10 is sharper than we have seen previously. Good trend. 

 

[cheshire snow]

If the models were a food i would say they were like a trifle at the

Moment

We have a lovely base,with a tasty filling,however we are just missing

The cream and the cherry on top.

C.S

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The control is easterly after the 24th and a very small hint of a cluster there but really just a plate of spaghetti as far as a general picture.

Bringing uppers between +5 and + 10c !!!

 

[gottolovethisweather]

58 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The time of year is still a little against us. Perfect cold synoptics will bring snow - "good" synoptics will just bring very cold rain. It dawned on me today - that's probably what we're going to get by the end of the week away from high ground in the north. It's going to be very unpleasant!

Is this the longest northerly ever btw - from the Arctic to the Canaries?

 

 

Conversely, we could have 14 or 15c with SW'rly gales so I'll take cold or at least below average conditions each and every time. Yes, often such conditions are deemed as imperfect (who wants cold rain) but when is the weather perfect for all? I like as much variety as the next man or woman but so often our weather gets stuck in a zonal train (winter 13/14) with fleeting glimpses of cold, this time around the dice are slowly loading towards favouring those who like it cold.

 

Edited November 12, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

The control is easterly after the 24th and a very small hint of a cluster there but really just a plate of spaghetti as far as a general picture.

Yes , earlier there seems to be uncertainty around what that low pressure might do,how far east/se it gets before filling. For the UK it needs to get far enough se.

[karlos1983]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Bringing uppers between +5 and + 10c !!!

 

Edited November 12, 2016 by karlos1983

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Wouldn't take long to change the colours over the UK

[legritter]

Evening gang ,Well currently looking at available charts and Data we go from mild mid week to a colder position come next week end or even a bit sooner .

I think plenty of wintry showers around with higher ground across our north prone to several cms ,I,M not getting fired up over the russian high just yet ,this could wax and wane for ages ,but good to see it around though ,not going to worry too much about later charts of the main models ,as we all know they can change twice per day .

But we do have some different synoptics around compared to last several Autumns ,and of course the Data we dont get to see but are able to read between the lines on met office long range updates daily ,And looking out to 30 days is a big minefield even in this day of computers and sophisticated Satellites ,perhaps the weather will follow the world news this year  brexit,  trump ,all not expected , record breaking snow and cold , any how ,just my take on things , Eyes down for tomorrows runs ,Crikey its time for Gfs  ,.

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Wouldn't take long to change the colours over the UK

The ecm control isn't the same as the gfs control !

[Jonan92]

So far this run looks much more promising than 12z for a nice blocking next weekend

[cheshire snow]

This evening 18z shows snow showers packing into NW Scotland,

NI and NW England Thursday evening

C.S

[shaky]

Much better 18z run!slightly more amplified in the atlantic aswell!!

[Gael_Force]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Bringing uppers between +5 and + 10c !!!

 

Surely not uppers? I thought that was the 2 metre temps on those graphs. No variance between the day and night suggests a cold dank feed over there.

[snowflakey]

A bit of a snap shot, but has potential imo with a mah retrogressing towards Greenland ?

 

[Frosty.]

18 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

This evening 18z shows snow showers packing into NW Scotland,

NI and NW England Thursday evening

C.S

Yes it does

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Surely not uppers? I thought that was the 2 metre temps on those graphs. No variance between the day and night suggests a cold dank feed over there.

Yes indeed but at this time of year likely to deliver grey skies and cool temps. 

Im looking at the raw data rather than the Dutch graphs 

[Snowman.]

2 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Cold? Or just slightly below the average? I think the latter and the air is never going to be cold enough for snow at any point in the near future. As i said in my last post, the outlook is interesting for the convection side of things, the fact its going to be windy with blustery showers and that it will actually be proper autuminal weather but for snow lovers, at the moment, its a rather poor outlook at the moment.

I have to admit, I probably was a bit wrong calling the output "flat" as there is 'waves' and 'amplification' but the issue is, I have yet to see or be convinced by any blocking charts, all I see is half attempts which therefore allows some cooler/chilly air to set in but nothing out of the ordinary.

The charts remind me of Jan 2016, a negative AO, warm Arctic,  deep cold over Siberia, some half hearted ridging but very little cold on our side of the Arctic or over Scandinavia so its one of those where you ask, where is the cold going to come from!?

I think if we want Northerlies at this time of year, there has got to be a positive AO to actually bring some noteworthy cold air down otherwise it will be rather diluted.

It's November the 12th and we're heading into winter with probably the best prospects in a few years. We have already seen that the PV is clearly not up for a fight this season and continues to show no real power.

Yes its a shame that all models aren't showing -10 850's on a cold easterly breeze but you have got to approach with realism and lower your expectations. The UK just simply is a cold and snowy environment and to get such thing to our shores it takes a little patience and a dash of luck.

Please everyone stop overthinking and getting yourselves in a pickle over what the models show in 10-15 days, it simply isn't worth the fuss.