Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[northwestsnow]

GFS0z looks mainly cold with plenty of PM shots on offer as we move further into November-

Wouldn't rule out some snow as the jet and the 528 DAM line clear the south coast periodically, some of the best snow events are borderline!

ECM less keen it would seem - looks flatter at 144-

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Fascinating model watching..

 

[carinthian]

Morning all. The latest version of the GFS shows a another variation on the ops this morning. Plenty of changes in the 7-10 days time span going on. This current chart is my favourite from the cold prospective with sinking jet, Polar trough over Western Europe being held in place by the super Russian cold high and Mid Atlantic height rises poleward. No doubt there will be plenty of changes in the various ops but the theme continues towards a colder spell later next week with increasing snow risk. Will the cold become prolonged ? Now I think no one can call that presently but looking much better to this start to winter for many cold lovers on this site.

 C

[fergieweather]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS0z looks mainly cold with plenty of PM shots on offer as we move further into November-

Wouldn't rule out some snow as the jet and the 528 DAM line clear the south coast periodically, some of the best snow events are borderline!

ECM less keen it would seem - looks flatter at 144-

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.html

Fascinating model watching..

 

ECMWF Deterministic by T+240 sits in a smaller cluster (n=10) with a focus amongst ENS towards colder patterns thereafter. Whilst confidence is invariably low on this extended range period, it's nonetheless noteworthy how we are seeing increasing signs now of clusters emerging that tally more broadly with the repeated signals from both GloSea5 and EC Monthly for a blocked tendency characterising the opening of December.

[bluearmy]

signs that the mid Atlantic ridge is more marked at day 10 which could well mean the core of the upper trough sinks south of us allowing the Atlantic ridge to join with the Russian across the top. If this happens then it doesn't lead to deep cold as the uppers to our ese are not low. However, a continental flow at this time of year is never warm! 

The extended eps taking on the look of yesterday's  ec46 which is guess is good news for coldies! 

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

ECMWF Deterministic by T+240 sits in a smaller cluster (n=10) with a focus amongst ENS towards colder patterns thereafter. Whilst confidence is invariably low on this extended range period, it's nonetheless noteworthy how we are seeing increasing signs now of clusters emerging that tally more broadly with the repeated signals from both GloSea5 and EC Monthly for a blocked tendency characterising the opening of December.

So that means soil resembling concrete under 6 inches of crisp powder snow is guaranteed!!! 

Many thanks for your input, very much appreciated.

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

T+192

 

Forum Meltdown?

 

[Summer Sun]

Week 2 is pretty cold on GFS note the darker greens and even a hint of light blue in the north

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

signs that the mid Atlantic ridge is more marked at day 10 which could well mean the core of the upper trough sinks south of us allowing the Atlantic ridge to join with the Russian across the top. If this happens then it doesn't lead to deep cold as the uppers to our ese are not low. However, a continental flow at this time of year is never warm! 

The extended eps taking on the look of yesterday's  ec46 which is guess is good news for coldies! 

Yes, fergies post above suggestive of the blocked scenario longer term Blue.

-I'm not greedy  i will happily accept a continental feed in any shape or form to usher in winter

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ens mean looks better than the op and more in line with last night's 12z op / mean..becoming colder later next week from the NW, indeed a cold outbreak is indicated with night frosts and wintry showers, and longer spells of rain / wintry ppn, even some snow, especially for the north and on hills. 

Edited November 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[northwestsnow]

Cracking mean charts there Frosty

Fingers crossed for a better 12z op run, and of course a juicy meto update today will increase confidence, whichever way you look at its a completely different landscape to this time last winter.

 

[Ice Day]

6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 00z ens mean looks better than the op and more in line with last night's 12z op / mean..becoming colder later next week, indeed a cold outbreak is indicated with night frosts and wintry showers, even some snow, especially for the north and on hills. 

 

Indeed, this is definitely a case of further north the better.  The Scottish mountains are going to receive a good few days of decent snowfall from this scenario.  All this before winter proper as well, lovely stuff.

Edited November 12, 2016 by Ice Day

[Faronstream]

I can only see mild wet Atlantic weather for the rest of November in yesterday and todays run, especially GFS is repeating the same movements of the deep low pressures so maximum only 1-3 days with dry and cold weather is expected.

[Blessed Weather]

To see how different this November is to last year here's a comparison using 2m temp anomalies from NCEP. Note that the charts use GFS data and this years chart is based on actual to date plus today's GFS 0z forecast for the next 7 days (i.e. the first 19 days of Nov).

Look at the Greenland & NE Canada/Newfoundland anomaly last year v this. The cold footprint of a PV in it's usual residence is evident last year. This year the anomaly showing just how much warmer the same area is. And the Arctic Circle showing a very large anomaly to confirm the record breaking warmth there. The impressive cold pool in Siberia also evident.

So this year there is less cold in NE Canada/Newfoundland to help generate the vigorous Lows that barrelled across the Atlantic last year. Indeed, a generally slack temp gradient between mid latitudes and the Arctic supporting a meandering Jet and blocking scenarios. 

Nov 2015  Nov 2016 (to 19th)

Zooming in on Europe, again a complete opposite in the temp anomaly. I don't think we can moan about a lack of cold to tap into this year.

Nov 2015  Nov 2016 (to 19th)

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

I can only see mild wet Atlantic weather for the rest of November in yesterday and todays run, especially GFS is repeating the same movements of the deep low pressures so maximum only 1-3 days with dry and cold weather is expected.

Hmmmmmmm, you sure ?

GFS showing a cold PM airstream next week as the jet digs south, mild is not a word i would use to describe the outlook...

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Faronstream said:

I can only see mild wet Atlantic weather for the rest of November in yesterday and todays run, especially GFS is repeating the same movements of the deep low pressures so maximum only 1-3 days with dry and cold weather is expected.

GFS 10 day ensemble mean would disagree with you.  

 

EDIT oops that's the control run. Looks good! - but ensemble mean is in my next post. Apologies.

Edited November 12, 2016 by Catacol

[booferking]

10 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

I can only see mild wet Atlantic weather for the rest of November in yesterday and todays run, especially GFS is repeating the same movements of the deep low pressures so maximum only 1-3 days with dry and cold weather is expected.

Yea your probably right being from Sweden them charts would look mild compare to what you would get

 

Edited November 12, 2016 by booferking

[A.J]

57 minutes ago, Iceaxecrampon said:

T+192

 

Forum Meltdown?

 

lol....servers crashing everywhere!....but yes, the GFS does show a marginal event next weekend and into Monday, no support from the ECM though, so we'll have to see if the GFS continues with this scenario on subsequent runs, as at the moment it's all on the verge of FI (t144-168)

GFS T850 & dewpoint temps for time period

        

 

and the ECM T850/SLP for the same time period

  

[The PIT]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmmmmm, you sure ?

GFS showing a cold PM airstream next week as the jet digs south, mild is not a word i would use to describe the outlook...

You mean Friday mild to that point then it goes rather cold if it survives the next few runs. Hopefully it will.

[karyo]

The 6z GFS is slightly more amplified than the earlier run. The Atlantic ridge is a bit stronger and the winds are coming from Iceland in the 2nd half of the week.

I suppose the weather can be described as mild for a time by Swedish standards but for us here it is quite chilly.

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

GFS 10 day ensemble mean would disagree with you.  

That's the control run.

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 6z GFS is slightly more amplified than the earlier run. The Atlantic ridge is a bit stronger and the winds are coming from Iceland in the 2nd half of the week.

I suppose the weather can be described as mild for a time by Swedish standards but for us here it is quite chilly.

So is it better than the 00z run then?aint seen this mornings runs properly which is why am asking!

[karyo]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

So is it better than the 00z run then?aint seen this mornings runs properly which is why am asking!

Yes, it is certainly an improvement. The 0z wasn't bad either but the 6z is colder in the 140-200hour timeframe. In fact with a slack arctic airflow it could give some quite frosty nights when skies clear.

Edited November 12, 2016 by karyo

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's the control run.

Indeed, this is the GEFS 00z mean @ T+240..doesn't look mild at all, slightly below average in the south and cold for scotland in particular.

Edited November 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[booferking]

Easterly incoming in the later stages.

[bluearmy]

As a note, if we are going to drop the upper trough to our south then the ops are going to be quite a mess for a while in the 6/12 day period as they get the distribution of the jet ne/se worked out. Could well swing between scandi troughs and ridges plus biscay troughs and sliders/channel runners into the upper trough. 

given recent lack of run to run continuity in fi, I doubt that what people want to read!