Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[IDO]

19 minutes ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:

Erm basing your forecasts on the gfs one then yes fair enough but you can see how the ecm even at t144 thinks quite differently. In fact going by the update earlier today this time next wk we could well be looking down the barrel of a long cold spell with cyclonic weather systems sitting on the UK... cold uppers/low pressure= zonal westerly? No 

As I said, after D10 anybodies guess, and I did say cooler flow after the brief milder blip that is upcoming.

ECM does not go after D10 so yes referring to the GEFS after D10 and as a whole HP>LP for the Atlantic sector, but no specifics yet.

I rarely look at ECM op after D7 when a block is involved as garden paths are not my thing.

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just a quick one from me...have guest's

"UNDERCUT ALERT" on the ecm @ 240.

I definitely see potential down the line.

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

As I said, after D10 anybodies guess, and I did say cooler flow after the brief milder blip that is upcoming.

ECM does not go after D10 so yes referring to the GEFS after D10 and as a whole HP>LP for the Atlantic sector, but no specifics yet.

I rarely look at ECM op after D7 when a block is involved as garden paths are not my thing.

I agree re the ecm after day 7. 

But the update indicated by this time next wk which is less than 10 days away. Nobody knows how this will plan out although a cold cyclonic pattern has great potential. Stick a greeny high into the mix with southerly tracking lows gets the taste buds going.

[northwestsnow]

Well day 10 is hardly the most reliable of starting points but that Russian block is moving WESTWARDS and i really dont think there is much to stop it insofar as the Atlantic is concerned on the ecm 10.

As others have said a lot of water to go under the bridge but could we be looking at a big scandy block come latter end of November?

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z ends on an interesting note..increasingly blocked 

[terrier]

Well I don't think we can complain with the model output tonight from the ukmo right through to the ecm they are all painting a similar picture. And if it cold frosty with some snow then we are certainly on the right path. Certainly poles apart to this time last year. 

[blizzard81]

The way I would sum up the models today is - There is something brewing! In a cold sense of course Nothing is ever set in stone but there is that air about it which I haven't felt since 2009/10. 

Edited November 11, 2016 by ajpoolshark

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, terrier said:

 Certainly poles apart to this time last year. 

Not really, last November had quite a lot of polar maritime incursions, it's longer range into December which sounds more promising for coldies from the updates by Fergieweather with increasing signs of blocking from the longer range models like the CFS, EC32, GloSea5 etc.

Edited November 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! The ops that's gfs and ecm  are showing some turbulent cold weather from mid-week onwards  Devil in the detail folks but Fasten your seat belts!!!

[Spah1]

Ryan Maue - Twitter

Largest area of 50°F below normal I've seen on global map for temps. Russia & Kazakhstan under influence of yuugge Siberian High 1050 mb
+7d

 Where will it end up ???

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Ryan Maue - Twitter

Largest area of 50°F below normal I've seen on global map for temps. Russia & Kazakhstan under influence of yuugge Siberian High 1050 mb
+7d

 Where will it end up ???

Eastern Siberia 

[Guest]

9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Ryan Maue - Twitter

Largest area of 50°F below normal I've seen on global map for temps. Russia & Kazakhstan under influence of yuugge Siberian High 1050 mb
+7d

 Where will it end up ???

it will end up sat right on top of the UK....

[sorepaw1]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 12z ends on an interesting note..increasingly blocked 

Nice chart could end up a battleground situation there.

[nick sussex]

I hope people don't get dazzled by the Siberian high. Its record at directly influencing the UK is poor, the better chance easterlies come from a smaller high located over Scandi.

So if anything is to pop up its more likely to be centred to the ne of the UK, whether we get any further progress from the ECMs T240hrs chart time will tell.

The pattern upstream in North America is expected to remain amplified for some time;

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN AND MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SHOW GOOD TO EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT ON A QUASI-PROGRESSIVE AND INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED FLOW
BY THE MIDDLE/END OF NEXT WEEK FROM ASIA INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.  WHILE THE GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR DAYS,
THEY HAVE ALL CHANGED THEIR COMPLEXION OF THE SYSTEM NEAR THE EAST
COAST EACH DAY IN UNISON -- SOMETIMES MORE NORTHERLY AND
PROGRESSIVE, SOMETIMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND NON-MOBILE.  THIS ISSUE
IN PARTICULAR DEALS WITH TROUGH AMPLITUDE.  CONSIDERING THE
SIGNIFICANT AMPLITUDE SEEN IN THE FLOW PATTERN BY MID NEXT WEEK,
ANY OF THE TROUGHS IN AND NEAR NORTH AMERICA COULD BE SPORTING A
CLOSED CENTER, THOUGH DETERMINING WHERE WITHIN THE TROUGHS THIS
CLOSED CENTER MAY LIE IS OF SOME UNCERTAINTY

The above from NCEP does give some room for manoeuvre within the medium term in terms of any colder air into the UK. You'll note that the ECM is a bit more amplified with the Atlantic high, the GFS runs a shortwave through the high which stops it from retrogressing further to the nw.

Putting that aside the models want to drop heights again to the nw, the key going forward is whether that amplification upstream can help deliver more digging south of troughing in the Atlantic to the west of the UK, this then forces heights to rise to the east/ne of the UK.

I'd say at the moment that the outputs don't show a cleanish route to cold, its like having some goodish ingredients on the chopping board but not really sure yet as to how to deliver a decent meal.

For that reason best to not have high expectations in the medium term but don't be too surprised if something more interesting doesn't pop up within the T240hrs timeframe.

Edited November 11, 2016 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks increasingly chilly from the NW later next week with a cold outbreak indicated.

Edited November 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks increasingly chilly from the NW later next week with a cold outbreak indicated.

Excellent mean charts there. The Russian high looks like it could be a real contender as December approaches.

Edited November 11, 2016 by blizzard81

[Blessed Weather]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I hope people don't get dazzled by the Siberian high. Its record at directly influencing the UK is poor, the better chance easterlies come from a smaller high located over Scandi.

(post snipped)

I'd say at the moment that the outputs don't show a cleanish route to cold, its like having some goodish ingredients on the chopping board but not really sure yet as to how to deliver a decent meal.

For that reason best to not have high expectations in the medium term but don't be too surprised if something more interesting doesn't pop up within the T240hrs timeframe.

Great analogy. We must hope that one of the key ingredients - the exceptional cold that's creeping towards us - can finally be launched towards us by a Scandi high. It's not showing in this evening's Op runs, but hinted at by the those 13% ECM Ensemble members (chart posted earlier) that showed such a scenario.

Max temps Russia 11th Nov  17th Nov

[bryan629]

On 11/7/2016 at 23:07, bryan629 said:

Judah seems to be as confused as the models this week... as he put it `` hes scratching his head`` quite a lot of ifs, buts and maybe`s in this weeks blog . 

http://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation

Im kinda thinking the siberian high will grow into a monster fairly soon.. no evidence to back it up mind, i just seem to remember JH saying a few years back that because of its remoteness , not much data is gathered from that part of the world. 

 

its just a question now of how far west it creeps .. but certainly looking at a possible nose bleed high. 

 

[bluearmy]

It should be noted that the Russian ridge to our east in conjunction with a mid Atlantic high anomoly keeps the w euro trough in place which gradually sinks - thereafter a southerly jet keeps the low height anomoly to our south. Whilst this would promise  a continental flow and potential wintry incursions, the Russian ridge keeps uppers to our east and south east above normal. we would probably be surface cold but not deeply cold in the 10/15 day period.  at some point, you would think that this broad solution will find a way to bring a further blast of winter to our shores before november is out. the pattern fits well with what the ec46 predicts come December. 

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It should be noted that the Russian ridge to our east in conjunction with a mid Atlantic high anomoly keeps the w euro trough in place which gradually sinks - thereafter a southerly jet keeps the low height anomoly to our south. Whilst this would promise  a continental flow and potential wintry incursions, the Russian ridge keeps uppers to our east and south east above normal. we would probably be surface cold but not deeply cold in the 10/15 day period.  at some point, you would think that this broad solution will find a way to bring a further blast of winter to our shores before november is out. the pattern fits well with what the ec46 predicts come December. 

Yes, you would think that for there to be any potent cold in the 15 day period, you would at least be seeing some GEFS members 850mb temps flatlining near to -10c, i keep thinking we are firing blanks but then keep having to tell myself its Nov 11th!!!!  apart from 2010, have any really cold uppers ever appeared in modelling by Nov 11th?  No i would suggest - its me getting too far ahead of the game!!!!.

 

Edited November 11, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Spah1]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, you would think that for there to be any potent cold in the 15 day period, you would at least be seeing some GEFS members 850mb temps flatlining near to -10c, i keep thinking we are firing blanks but then keep having to tell myself its Nov 11th!!!!  apart from 2010, have any really cold uppers ever appeared in modelling by Nov 11th?  No i would suggest - its me getting too far ahead of the game!!!!.

 

Almost feels like we've done half of Winter. 

[Captain Shortwave]

A long way off still from a proper blast of winter though at least there are promising signs.

      

Certainly a trend to weaken low heights over the pole in general and develop a more meridional pattern with a trough somewhere across Europe which is hitting a brick wall that is that Russian ridge. So a mixed and rather cool picture though wintry precipitation will be restricted to high ground at the present time.

A lot of talk about this block to our east, it is not a given that this will precede a wintry spell for the UK, we only need to go back to 2014 at this point where we saw persistent blocking to our east with a lot of positive signals only for the pattern to break down come the end of the month and a pretty average winter followed. At this point I am keeping an open mind, there are a lot of positives to take but a lot of time to go until the end of the month when things could get interesting.

[Iceaxecrampon]

17th November still in the frame.No ppn at low levels maybe but you never know.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Almost feels like we've done half of Winter. 

Yes it does.

i looked at the ECM mean earlier at 240 and didn't think much of it but had another inspection when it got good reviews on here and it does sharpen the atlantic ridge up slightly between 216-240 so decent.

Edited November 11, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Fozfoster]

Can someone say the last time we had a cold winter from a Russian high, they promise much but seldom deliver.