Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Easterly incoming in the later stages.

No frigid cold though.

[Snowman.]

10 minutes ago, booferking said:

Easterly incoming in the later stages.

Knowing the GFS is just going to spin into a monster low and not slide.

[doctor32]

Next week pretty much nailed down now... very mild start then cooling off towards the end of the week from the north, pretty windy to for northern half of uk. messy next weekend with low over or near uk. 

Pointless looking to charts after that period as they are chopping and changing so much from run to run it will take a good 5 or so to get an idea on where we are heading for the latter stages of november. I do believe that there is a good chance for some decent snowfall for some parts before months end.

[Catacol]

54 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's the control run.

Oops quite right! Damned iPad... Mean here. No Atlantic train.

[karlos1983]

Control looks to be linking the Atlantic ridge with Russian as blue referenced earlier?

 

Doesn't quite this time  

Edited November 12, 2016 by karlos1983

[fergieweather]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Oops quite right! Damned iPad... Mean here. No Atlantic train.

No 'train' in sense of last year, BUT continued signals for some deep cyclonic outcomes (a minority of which would yield gales / severe gales) from a broad W/NW flow bias from next weekend on into following week. The cyclonic signal, whilst still a majority in clusters by w/c 21st, are juxtaposed by then against a minority that go fully blocked. As I noted earlier, these latter solutions (dominated by a more NE/E flow bias) then become more numerous out into the 15d period (= last few days of Nov), by which stage GloSea5 switches to it's more +ve MSLP signal on into turn of month. So, considerable spread post d10, and we are entering a finely-balanced phase where I'd expect model volatility (and doubtless wild swings between mobility v blocking) to become very apparent for outcomes ca. 20-21st onwards.

[Singularity]

Its a shame that GEFS/GFS is making such a mess of how the tropical forcing evolves beyond about a week's range. Other models may be struggling too with the combination of a La Niña ocean and El Niño-like atmospheric state. I wonder if GloSea5 for example is able to capture the sustenance of the El Niño-like state through to (at least) early Dec?

I suspect that without the tropical mishaps, GEFS and GFS would be producing some quite dramatic charts in the 12-16 day range. As much as they could be jumping the gun and being too quick (always a possibility), they'd be providing a lot of entertainment on here.

Having said that, many on here are managing to read the potential from 'sort of' charts and provide interesting insights and opinions, which is great to see - keep up the good work everyone 

[Iceaxecrampon]

56 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

Next week pretty much nailed down now... very mild start then cooling off towards the end of the week from the north, pretty windy to for northern half of uk. messy next weekend with low over or near uk. 

Pointless looking to charts after that period as they are chopping and changing so much from run to run it will take a good 5 or so to get an idea on where we are heading for the latter stages of november. I do believe that there is a good chance for some decent snowfall for some parts before months end.

Yes - all eyes maybe on the 17th November as it that date has been quite constant in subsequent runs - worth watching to see how good the model accuracy holds up. 

[ITSY]

17 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

No 'train' in sense of last year, BUT continued signals for some deep cyclonic outcomes (a minority of which would yield gales / severe gales) from a broad W/NW flow bias from next weekend on into following week. The cyclonic signal, whilst still a majority in clusters by w/c 21st, are juxtaposed by then against a minority that go fully blocked. As I noted earlier, these latter solutions (dominated by a more NE/E flow bias) then become more numerous out into the 15d period (= last few days of Nov), by which stage GloSea5 switches to it's more +ve MSLP signal on into turn of month. So, considerable spread post d10, and we are entering a finely-balanced phase where I'd expect model volatility (and doubtless wild swings between mobility v blocking) to become very apparent for outcomes ca. 20-21st onwards.

Another great post, thanks Fergie. Got to say that you can see the spread clearly on the GEFS 06z suite - some wildly blocked and some that really build cyclonic conditions in the N Atlantic (albeit 'really' being a relative term after last year's bulldozer storms). Having said that, even some of these wind up with a high starting to retrograde northwards by the end of low res, so clearly it follows the pattern you've described. Let's hope, given the background signals already discussed, that this is a case of short vs long term routes to cold and not the emergence of a break with longer term expectations for December...

[Froze were the Days]

hhhmmmm...personally can't see anything in the way of +ve height anomalies to the W/NW as per GloSea/EC of the UK going by the last few op runs from both GFS/ECM heading towards the last 1/3rd of the month, possible blocking to the east yes but unfortunately we could be the 'buffers' for a period and lots of cool wet weather. Nothing too appealing in my eyes.

As Fergie mentioned no Atlantic train as per previous winters just something a bit different with a varying jetstream.

Edited November 12, 2016 by Froze were the Days

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

hhhmmmm...personally can't see anything in the way of +ve height anomalies to the W/NW as per GloSea/EC of the UK going by the last few model runs from both GFS/ECM heading towards the last 1/3rd of the month, possible blocking to the east yes but unfortunately we could be the 'buffers' for a period and lots of cool wet weather. Nothing too appealing in my eyes.

As Fergie mentioned no Atlantic train as per previous winters just something a bit different with a varying jetstream.

Well taking the last paragraph of Ian's post, might explain this, though.

"So, considerable spread post d10, and we are entering a finely-balanced phase where I'd expect model volatility (and doubtless wild swings between mobility v blocking) to become very apparent for outcomes ca. 20-21st onwards."

[marksiwnc]

2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

hhhmmmm...personally can't see anything in the way of +ve height anomalies to the W/NW as per GloSea/EC of the UK going by the last few op runs from both GFS/ECM heading towards the last 1/3rd of the month, possible blocking to the east yes but unfortunately we could be the 'buffers' for a period and lots of cool wet weather. Nothing too appealing in my eyes.

As Fergie mentioned no Atlantic train as per previous winters just something a bit different with a varying jetstream.

I'm sure the blocking is not until start of December or last few days of November.  I might be wrong.  interesting model viewing at the moment 

[gottolovethisweather]

15 hours ago, Trom said:

There is a slight irony in posting "predicting the weather 10 days ahead made a fool of us..." before predicting cold and ice by the end of autumn in the very next sentence.  Nonetheless synoptically we remain in a much better place than in previous years so I do see your point. The vortex continues it's fragmented movement and looks a long way from being cohesive.  Can't see any signals for cold and ice for the whole country as yet but the potential is certainly there.  Just nice to have a season that is thus far free from raging zonality.  Think back to the last two years with the compact vortex over Greenland and the high pressure constantly to the south and east of the UK and the difference is stark.  I do agree at this stage of autumn/winter to focus on the specifics of each run is a little pointless but to focus on the long run broad patterns is encouraging if colds what you want.

Given this is my house at present and my family is living in the garden in a caravan the law of the sod says it's bound to be cold.  

 

 

 

 

 

1

Yes, I can see the irony Yet the experts can have all the supercomputing power in the world and even they, don't always see what's just around the corner, ten days it seems was a long time in Meteorology, especially when looking back at 2010. I will continue to go on my gut instinct and the hints through the Natural World and via my matching analogues. I do hope you get stocked up on the necessities for life in what might become a cold snowy winter and things sort themselves out sooner or later for your home.

All the best

gottolovethisweather

 

Edited November 12, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

8 hours ago, Mucka said:

GFS 00z

Snow on leading edge of channel runner in November?

It could be possible if this came off.

And staying chilly under our cold trough. especially up North

All in FI and quite different to previous runs so not to be taken too seriously but interesting nonetheless. 

 

GFS ensembles an absolute dogs dinner by day 10 with everything on offer. Take your pick;

A couple of chilly days clearly defined on the graphs now though.

2

2

Hi Mucka, which location is that graph supposed to reflect?

Edited November 12, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[bobbydog]

7 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Hi Mucka, which location is that graph supposed to reflect?

That's somewhere between Birmingham and Nottingham. If you Google the coordinates, it gives you the exact location on Google maps.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean I'm seeing a cold outbreak later next week from the NW with showers turning to sleet and snow across northern hills and perhaps to some lower ground too, especially but not exclusively in the north together with night frosts and icy patches. Further ahead there is mid atlantic ridging and a trough either over the uk or just to the nw / n / ne with generally below average to rather cold temps across the uk and a continuing unsettled theme with rain and showers with an ongoing risk of snow on hills, mainly in the north..The 6z mean doesn't indicate any mild weather as such, apart from early next week.

Edited November 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[Banbury]

At the moment all I can look at is the W / NW , I see a coolish flow rather than anything in the Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr category .

If it stays that way I will be a tad disappointed ( yes better than last year ) but for me I like looking E always brings the best of Winter to our shores

[Banbury]

Today's 0z ECM control has easterlies and ENE'lies over the UK from 288 to 360 -

 

From Darren over on TWO ..................if only that worked its way to 0 hour

[bluearmy]

6 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Today's 0z ECM control has easterlies and ENE'lies over the UK from 288 to 360 -

 

From Darren over on TWO ..................if only that worked its way to 0 hour

 

Marcus, the control follows the route of the sinking trough and the ridges meeting north of the uk. The easterly isn't deep cold but the high retrogresses to become a strong greeny ridge by day 15. 

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

That's somewhere between Birmingham and Nottingham. If you Google the coordinates, it gives you the exact location on Google maps.

Cheers bobbydog, I'm just lazy yet I guess many others do wonder like I do, thanks for confirming that. 

[Nouska]

The last major blocking episode, FIM was similar to the ECM and quite close to what transpired. This is the fifteen day blocking forecast from the 00Z run (increased signal from previous run). You can never be sure of the latitude of the block but it seems, on the surface, to suggest a link between Atlantic and Scandinavian sectors.

An edit for the 336 hour NH chart from the run.

500 height          

925 mb temps

Edited November 12, 2016 by Nouska

[Banbury]

28 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Marcus, the control follows the route of the sinking trough and the ridges meeting north of the uk. The easterly isn't deep cold but the high retrogresses to become a strong greeny ridge by day 15. 

Thanks Blue , it wont take long for cold to track Westwards , IMBY winters with an E or NEly are often the best

[gottolovethisweather]

42 minutes ago, Banbury said:

At the moment all I can look at is the W / NW , I see a coolish flow rather than anything in the Brrrrrrrrrrrrrr category .

If it stays that way I will be a tad disappointed ( yes better than last year ) but for me I like looking E always brings the best of Winter to our shores

 

 

 

Better to have NWr'ly flow than a broader W/SWr'ly flow which is rather more than norm for November and sadly, for most winters in recent years. Any flow from a Northerly quadrant is welcomed by me because it usually brings colder than average air, frosts by night and clear gin skies in between, a perfect winter scene, at least to my mind. The added bonus is that a NW'rly doesn't take much nudging to become a colder N'rly or NE'r'y given the increased chances of an undercutting low.

 

For instance, from this at t+240 hrs three days to this from the overnight run at t+168 hrs.

 

 

All the best, a colder spell is clearly on its way. Incidentally, these charts for next Saturday (should they come off to be relatively accurate) by then, we will already be into the third day of the colder spell. The details from Thursday 17th November onwards is where it's at, for coldies.

 

gottolovethisweather

Edited November 12, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Faronstream]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

Hmmmmmmm, you sure ?

GFS showing a cold PM airstream next week as the jet digs south, mild is not a word i would use to describe the outlook...

Before thursday this week the last 10 days of november looked colder and more influences from HT over west russia, i still think that it will be closer to mild than cold which for me is day below 4-5 degrees in the middle of the day, it's soon meteorological winter after all ( 1st december)

[Frosty.]

There is strong support from the GEFS 6z for a cold shot later next week with some ensembles wanting to prolong it into the following week by way of reloads and even increase the potency..

Edited November 12, 2016 by Frosty.