Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[snowflakey]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z brings winter to Scotland!

Also the  528dam down to the south coast 

 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yeah all FI though, and not Op output as you point out, but something to raise hopes. 

GFS ensembles (central England)

After our little chilly snap a real mixed bag. Some colder runs showing up but mostly just noise.

Indeed. The op is also quite a significant mild outlier.

[gottolovethisweather]

7 minutes ago, snowflakey said:

Also the  528dam down to the south coast 

 

 

Yep, GFS and UKMO on board, now the ECM?

[Frosty.]

Gem & Ukmo 12z both look as though they would be cold next weekend with wintry showers, snow on hills and night frosts.

Edited November 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[MR EXTREMES]

im pretty sure 2 low pressures then blocking been watching heights over eastern states the vortex is in bits.

confidence is growing i think a atlantic ridge joining scandi ridge lows starting to show a more southerly track its looking good.

low solar activity and the flux is dropping like a stone.

Edited November 12, 2016 by MR EXTREMES

[shaky]

8 hours ago, karyo said:

The 6z GFS is slightly more amplified than the earlier run. The Atlantic ridge is a bit stronger and the winds are coming from Iceland in the 2nd half of the week.

I suppose the weather can be described as mild for a time by Swedish standards but for us here it is quite chilly.

So is it better than the 00z run then?aint seen this mornings runs properly which is why am asking!

[shaky]

Massive massive differences on the ecm 12z compared to its 00z run and in a good way aswell!!at 168 hours its got slider lows in the atlantic lol coming into the cold air across the uk!!interesting!!

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Massive massive differences on the ecm 12z compared to its 00z run and in a good way aswell!!at 168 hours its got slider lows in the atlantic lol coming into the cold air across the uk!!interesting!!

Indeed, looks good! decent low thicknesses too, 524/526 dam

Edited November 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

6 minutes ago, shaky said:

Massive massive differences on the ecm 12z compared to its 00z run and in a good way aswell!!at 168 hours its got slider lows in the atlantic lol coming into the cold air across the uk!!interesting!!

seems like a normal late Nov setup to me? we gonna get a soaking

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

seems like a normal late Nov setup to me? we gonna get a soaking

Yes it's a pity but at least we get a cold snap before that

[Summer Sun]

ECM gives us 3 chiller days later next week

Then it turns stormy

[Singularity]

+168 to +192, ECM was like "Surprise! I undid the trough disruption!""

I have a feeling that overall, the outputs are only going to get weirder and wackier as the days by.

There is a sense of great anticipation for the first det. run to show the sinking trough right into Europe and a bridge between blocking high pressure to the E/NE and a mid-Atlantic ridge - i.e. what the EPS and GloSea5 has been hinting at. Hopefully we'll get there before too long.

[northwestsnow]

Oh well, we move on, bit of everything over the coming week or so, there was always going to be a period of mobility.

All in all not a great day but its mid Nov, i think its easy to forget that, i know i do. So, while the background signals remain positive for coldies we might have to patient - horrible word!

ECM is to be fair, pretty mobile with a few systems sweeping in but i dont mind the 240

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2401.html

Just a matter of time before the huge high to the east moves in.

[beng]

JMA getting there.

[Frosty.]

Actually, T+240 Ecm 12z looks much better going forward than the 00z

Edited November 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[swfc]

not the worst ecm tbh.imo tho esp in late november early dec"fi"id prefer to keep the cool pool to the east.short sea track regarding 850s ete and get some cold in.still just one run and an improvent on this mornings run from ecm

.

[Frosty.]

The good news for coldies is we are going to have some form of cold outbreak later next week but duration and strength are still unclear with the Ecm 12z looking completely different in the day 9 / 10 timeframe compared to the 00z..more runs needed!

Edited November 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

We are very dependant of where the low goes next weekend. If it heads south we open up all sorts of options.

[Frosty.]

Just now, Connor Bailey Degnan said:

We are very dependant of where the low goes next weekend. If it heads south we open up all sorts of options.

Agreed, there are some fascinating possibilities from a cold perspective.

[shaky]

37 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

seems like a normal late Nov setup to me? we gonna get a soaking

Until it blew up the low out of nowhere lol!!gona look very different next run!

[IDO]

29 minutes ago, Singularity said:

+168 to +192, ECM was like "Surprise! I undid the trough disruption!""

I have a feeling that overall, the outputs are only going to get weirder and wackier as the days by.

There is a sense of great anticipation for the first det. run to show the sinking trough right into Europe and a bridge between blocking high pressure to the E/NE and a mid-Atlantic ridge - i.e. what the EPS and GloSea5 has been hinting at. Hopefully we'll get there before too long.

They are long range and are fallible, even more so than the shorter range models. As we have seen with the strat forecasts of the last year or two, other stuff gets in the way. The Long Range forecasts are just algorithms churned out based on historical data, and in this Winter, I think you may have to throw the rule book out the window...

...so we are stuck in a rut at the moment with the UK at the end of a mobile pattern, the odd transient mini ridge to mix it up, but otherwise relatively slow cyclones warming out over our vicinity. The PV is ready to throw in the towel for an extended period but there is no trop forcing to finish it off, at least in the next 10 day period (longer from the GEFS); which is just typical. If that carries on we will have to rely on the strat to force the game changer (experts not sure viz a viz SSW).

We know if we give it time the PV will get its act together and take 6 weeks plus of the winter with it, I prefer to get the cold stuff now, rather than wait till Jan/Feb for any hope of cold (though no sign of the PV happening for sometime I think). Even though its mid-November, we certainly now need the groundwork to come into play for a potentially interesting Dec/Jan.

Saying all that we just have to hope those background signals are not just ghosts in the machine, and will start to show up as we move into the last third of November, as the GEFS are not reading the script just yet. Though with the GFS hinting at the MJO going COD late in its run we should see the potential for more Atlantic Ridge activity late in Novembe (-NAO likely):

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean looks good for a cold incursion towards and including next weekend, especially for scotland.

[Geordiesnow]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The good news for coldies is we are going to have some form of cold outbreak later next week but duration and strength are still unclear with the Ecm 12z looking completely different in the day 9 / 10 timeframe compared to the 00z..more runs needed!

Cold? Or just slightly below the average? I think the latter and the air is never going to be cold enough for snow at any point in the near future. As i said in my last post, the outlook is interesting for the convection side of things, the fact its going to be windy with blustery showers and that it will actually be proper autuminal weather but for snow lovers, at the moment, its a rather poor outlook at the moment.

I have to admit, I probably was a bit wrong calling the output "flat" as there is 'waves' and 'amplification' but the issue is, I have yet to see or be convinced by any blocking charts, all I see is half attempts which therefore allows some cooler/chilly air to set in but nothing out of the ordinary.

The charts remind me of Jan 2016, a negative AO, warm Arctic,  deep cold over Siberia, some half hearted ridging but very little cold on our side of the Arctic or over Scandinavia so its one of those where you ask, where is the cold going to come from!?

I think if we want Northerlies at this time of year, there has got to be a positive AO to actually bring some noteworthy cold air down otherwise it will be rather diluted.

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Cold? Or just slightly below the average? I think the latter and the air is never going to be cold enough for snow at any point in the near future.

Regarding later next week..Cold as in cold enough for snow on northern hills and perhaps to lower levels in the north, specifically scotland where 522-524 dam thicknesses are likely and I wouldn't rule out a wintry mix of ppn on modest hills in the south too..also cold enough for widespread frosts..it's still only mid November we are talking about so it's very acceptable to me. 

Edited November 12, 2016 by Frosty.

[Banbury]

I'm one of the biggest cold fans going but at the moment there is no WOW going on........just November weather we should be getting and not the dross from last year. Yes there is potential but until that has  been reached it is only potential .

Edited November 12, 2016 by Banbury