Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Hi all haven't had chance to look at the models Ian said chance of a colder outbreak later next week where are we looking north or east thank you. 

NW / N

Edited November 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[Scandinavian High.]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

NW / N

Thank you .

[Ali1977]

Chilly but nothing special late next week from the 06z, by Sunday's it's actually quite mild.

[nick sussex]

After a build up similar to the  anticipation post Star Wars we end up with a bit of a dud aka The Phantom Menace!

The operational  outputs are less amplified today and less enthusiastic about removing low heights from the north. 

The pattern in the USA however is still expected to amplify more next week and the ECM strat still shows weak zonal winds which means we might still see more changes back towards a colder solution .

I think we best give it a few more runs to see whether that might be the case.

Edited November 11, 2016 by nick sussex

[The Beast From The East]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

NW / N

Hi Frosty, love reading your posts everyday and the models you post to explain what the models show. I'm hoping the weather eventually comes from a n/ne rather than a Nw direction as I find this never delivers anything down here in the SE corner. Things do look great though for us collides . Thanks also I.F for your time on posting in this forum to keep us updated . ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️

[Man With Beard]

A look at the GEFS and ECM ens out to D15

   

My view is that long range means are very meaningful - when there is a clear diversion from the norm. And I think both charts have a clear suggestion - all the darker blues far away from us - which means blocking around the pole is more likely to happen on our side of the Atlantic than any other. (I take this primarily from the GEFS, but the ECM profile for our local area does not seem to contradict it)

Given that NH blocking is going like hot cakes at the moment, I suggest a higher than usual chance of the UK ending the month with a freeze-up. All depends where the blocking ends up, of course.

Edited November 11, 2016 by Man With Beard

[Froze were the Days]

Have to say pretty uninspiring GFS 06z run - seems to be getting flatter, where are the projected height rises to the west/north west in 9/10 days time?...only 1 run though but hope it's not a growing trend.

[feb1991blizzard]

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2016111106&var=HGT&lev=30mb&hour=348

BOOM!!

Its this the Wave 2 GP is on about?    Not just a split but look where from!!!!! (location wise)

& LOOK WHERE TO - ALTITUDE WISE!!!!!

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-strat.php?run=2016111106&var=HGT&lev=7mb&hour=384

Edited November 11, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Singularity]

I've been watching the GEFS plot for GLAAM/GWO fail time and time again to capture the actual behaviour; if the model had been correct two weeks ago we'd now be down in phase 1/2. If it had been correct a week ago we'd be in or near phase 8. Instead we're still hanging out in phase 5/6 which represents an El Nino-like state (never mind the La Nina SST state!). 

As GP explained in his excellent post two days ago, convective forcing should see us in or near GWO phase 4 toward month's end, not 1 or 2. So I'm not expecting GFS/GEFS to be sniffing out the right configurations for blocking and troughs beyond about a week's range.

[Frosty.]

3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

Have to say pretty uninspiring GFS 06z run - seems to be getting flatter, where are the projected height rises to the west/north west in 9/10 days time?...only 1 run though but hope it's not a growing trend.

It's a question of whether you trust the Gfs 6z more than the Ecm 00z..i don't ! 

P.S...thanks Siberian Xpress for your kind comments

Edited November 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[jvenge]

15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's a question of whether you trust the Ecm 00z more than the Gfs 6z.To quote Alan partridge..Ahhhaaa

P.S...thanks Siberian Xpress for your kind comments

Two runs a day vs 4 runs a day, I guess? I generally prefer the 0z. I forget which of the two out of 4 GFS runs contain most data thought.

The 6z has gone against recent GFS ensemble trends and slightly backtracked on how many members are keeping Eastern Europe below average in the more unreliable time frame. It will be interesting to see if the 12z goes back to the 0z thoughts, backs the 06z or even goes in a different direction :-)

Certainly not boring though, is it?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Carbon copy run from CFS today for December

Some tasty uppers too coming in 4-6C below LTA

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Two runs a day vs 4 runs a day, I guess? I generally prefer the 0z. I forget which of the two out of 4 GFS runs contain most data thought.

The 6z has gone against recent GFS ensemble trends and slightly backtracked on how many members are keeping Eastern Europe below average in the more unreliable time frame. It will be interesting to see if the 12z goes back to the 0z thoughts, backs the 06z or even goes in a different direction :-)

Certainly not boring though, is it?

I agree, it's certainly not boring, coldies are definitely in the game according to the latest models and longer range CFS & EC32..GloSea5..Mogreps etc

Edited November 11, 2016 by Frosty.

[Catacol]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Carbon copy run from CFS today for December

Some tasty uppers too coming in 4-6C below LTA

Yes - consistency from the comedy model... but consistency is nevertheless consistency. The potential for a proper cold shot in December is growing. Still need luck to get the finer details right, but I'd say the Scottish Ski Centres are going to have a lot of ploughing to do in December with the projected trough sat over us.

For us soft southerners I'm still looking longer term than that for a retrogression of the Siberian high and the jet dropping far enough south to allow channel bumpers. Timescale difficult to pin down, but I think the wave 2 forecast of GP's is key in this regard as it maintaining the pacific ENSO disconnect between atmosphere and ocean. I'm guessing a bit here, but I'd go for a cold trough through until approximately the last third of December when perhaps retrogression may feature. Battleground snow ala Feb 1996 is what we want down here. :-)

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - consistency from the comedy model... but consistency is nevertheless consistency. The potential for a proper cold shot in December is growing. Still need luck to get the finer details right, but I'd say the Scottish Ski Centres are going to have a lot of ploughing to do in December with the projected trough sat over us.

For us soft southerners I'm still looking longer term than that for a retrogression of the Siberian high and the jet dropping far enough south to allow channel bumpers. Timescale difficult to pin down, but I think the wave 2 forecast of GP's is key in this regard as it maintaining the pacific ENSO disconnect between atmosphere and ocean. I'm guessing a bit here, but I'd go for a cold trough through until approximately the last third of December when perhaps retrogression may feature. Battleground snow ala Feb 1996 is what we want down here. :-)

a guess... no no no no no Sounds spot on to me, particularly your last couple of lines. If it comes off, I'll send a bottle of thank you very much to you 

Things still look good to me, no change in the theme, PV having a little rest back at base camp, then it's off on its travels again. We would have to consider ourselves extremely unlucky IMO, if we don't benefit from this setup at some point in the next 4 weeks from a coldies perspective. We've got a ticket, we just have to hope our seat isn't behind a pillar! 

[fergieweather]

30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I agree, it's certainly not boring, coldies are definitely in the game according to the latest models and longer range CFS & EC32..GloSea5..Mogreps etc

Yup. I see WSI have tweeted the latest EC extended range and the resurgent blocking signal I mentioned, for those who otherwise can't see that output.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

 

[Zakos]

 

Im finding it quite difficult to spot any trends in the output recently. Although blocking in the atlantic is set to weaken, there is a signal that it will start to reassert itself at day 8. 

It looks like we are going to see a week or so of atlantic weather, before blocking in the atlantic may well take over again.

In the later frames of the GFS, there is a tendency for the low heights over Greenland to drop into southern central europe, and the siberian and atlantic blocks are set to merge, creating significantly blocked conditions for the UK.

The 00z an yesterday's 12z also showed this.

 

However the 18z had the block form too far east, leaving us in  a very mild and wet pattern.

It looks like the AO is going to dive negative after a short uptick, hopefully the block will setup in a favourable position for the UK

 

 

Edited November 11, 2016 by Zakos

[mb018538]

Perhaps slightly less good news on those AO forecasts - a few days ago, they were pretty much all showing negatives going forward, and there are a few there staying in positive territory...new trend? Or barking up the wrong tree?

[karlos1983]

39 minutes ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

 

That last graphic,bottom right. OH MY  BANK! @Catacol you've nailed it LOL

[jvenge]

Last 7 days 2m temp anomaly

Crazy to see how cold Scandinavia was.

Next 7 days 2m temp anomaly

 

 

Edited November 11, 2016 by jvenge
delete duplicate image

[daz_4]

Hopefully we'll soon start seeing some cold charts in FI. Ensembles from 6z leave a lot to be desired.   Too bad that the Scandinavia will warm up but I guess that was to be expected.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

 

[Man With Beard]

I don't agree that the GEFS 06Z ensembles were poor. By the end (T384), more than 50% of the members had clear heights to our NW, N or NE and minor troughing to our S or SE. That's a recipe for cold and possibly snow - just a matter of time once we get to that position.

One has to bear in mind that, in recent winters, the ensembles have been almost unanimous in going against northern blocking in their latter stages (and correctly so).

Noteworthy that ECM ensemble solution of heights to the NE appears in quite a few GEFS members too.

[Frosty.]

Looking ahead, the GEFS 6z perturbations show lots of encouragement for those of us who like it cold!

Edited November 11, 2016 by Frosty.