Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Nouska]

21 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

I don't think GFS has, but I haven't checked ENS. EC toyed with it; e.g. as per the low probs shown in the 00z tropical cyclone activity prognosis further into the month:

For the likes of us with no access to the suites you have, the NOAA TC genesis site can help. There's a looping facility to check and compare the models on a day to day basis. Runs only as far as +168 but there's big divergence with what they forecast for this.

The UKMO along with CMC show a strongish system by day seven.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

 

 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Do I detect (all be it very slightly) a movement towards this solution on the standard GEFS (12z) and how does this tie in (or not) with Stewart's (albeit later) theory of a Mid Atlantic /Greenland ridge?

I think it just adds to the likely more amplified solutions that have now indeed begun to appear in the fi gfs ops. whether the Siberian ridge extension becomes the driver or indeed a mid Atlantic ridge would currently be uncertain. trying to pin down the pattern for weeks 2 and 3 currently looks very tough apart from the amplified trend which could easily begin to reduce over the next couple days output. just good for coldies that we are chasing solutions like this before winter actually begins. you wont actually see a gfs op winter chart modelled until next tuesday !

[phil nw.]

One post being argumentative has been removed.Please use the pm system if you wish to continue-not in here,Thanks. 

[bluearmy]

Bias corrected gefs for the end of the run

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Bias corrected gefs for the end of the run

I actually think I would prefer the Greenland route to cold (normally prefer the Easterly), ive just been through the first 10 of the BC perbs and only p5 offers any high chance of a route to deep cold in the near future after that, yes I know its about the bigger picture but at some point we need to start firing something other than blanks before the Gun is taken off us and we go back to zonality, you would think (given the synoptical chart) that we would have at least seen some ens on the graph flatlining somewhere near to -10 850hpa temps by now.

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I actually think I would prefer the Greenland route to cold (normally prefer the Easterly), ive just been through the first 10 of the BC perbs and only p5 offers any high chance of a route to deep cold in the near future after that, yes I know its about the bigger picture but at some point we need to start firing something other than blanks before the Gun is taken off us and we go back to zonality, you would think (given the synoptical chart) that we would have at least seen some ens on the graph flatlining somewhere near to -10 850hpa temps by now.

I don't believe the individual perturbs shown are bias corrected  - the correction is made on the mean at then end

[SMU]

ECM showing a wave 2 split across the pole- 

[mountain shadow]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM showing a wave 2 split across the pole- 

Is that not a wave 3 with the heights into Greenland also?

[joggs]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Is that not a wave 3 with the heights into Greenland also?

It's still joined to the vortex in scandi quadrant.If it detaches I'd have said 3 way.

[booferking]

I would bank the ECM run all day all day

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, joggs said:

It's still joined to the vortex in scandi quadrant.If it detaches I'd have said 3 way.

It is still a wave though, this is subjective really dependent on what height and horizontal size you actually call a wave.

[northwestsnow]

ECM goes a different route to the GFS -

Wouldn't kick it out of bed though- can the incoming low at day 10 dig enough south to allow heights behind it..

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z is even colder than the 00z post T+168 hours and I'm sure we would see some wintry precipitation from this..it's been another encouraging days models for those of us who love cold weather and its not finished yet,  hopefully it won't be long before the south has snow too.

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, Nouska said:

For the likes of us with no access to the suites you have, the NOAA TC genesis site can help. There's a looping facility to check and compare the models on a day to day basis. Runs only as far as +168 but there's big divergence with what they forecast for this.

The UKMO along with CMC show a strongish system by day seven.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

 

 

Reference to the possible TD development, not in reply to Nouska's post.

Well with that track, *if it develops*, interacting with Cuba's mountains may well pick the storm to pieces. Not even up for discussion at NHC from what I can see. Incredible to even be talking of sorm development so late on. 

 

[Duane S.]

I am liking it. The ECM 10D is primed and there for the taking. We need to pinch ourselves here, this will be Mid November and we could well be playing hunt the vortex.

However, it is the GFS I find even more interesting. It (possibly over-) develops the low out in the Atlantic (and would no doubt send the forum into the depths of despair as we are plunged into a regime of SWerlies / TM!) BUT... short term pain / long term gain. Although not modelled perfectly in the latter stages of the 12z run, that would likely produce a surface high over Scandi and open the door to retrogression as the high is pumped up and we get a WAA burst Westwards towards the Iceland vicinity. The rest would likely follow. That would be nice anyway! :-)

 

[Man With Beard]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Bias corrected gefs for the end of the run

That is a remarkable chart, BA. A serious punt for a Scandi High there. Will be interesting to see the ECM ens later as I don't believe it showed anything like this earlier.

[Frosty.]

I even found a GEFS 12z perturbation with a Scandinavian high and cold air spreading across the uk..so, all sorts of possibilities which very much include polar / arctic maritime and easterlies too..potential is bubbling up nicely as we can almost sniff winter before us.

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That is a remarkable chart, BA. A serious punt for a Scandi High there. Will be interesting to see the ECM ens later as I don't believe it showed anything like this earlier.

With 51 members, the extended eps won't show a mean like that!

ian might be able to advise if there are any such clusters though

 

[feb1991blizzard]

47 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

That is a remarkable chart, BA. A serious punt for a Scandi High there. Will be interesting to see the ECM ens later as I don't believe it showed anything like this earlier.

There is a very very slight indication of a scandi high way down the line on the ECM mean 240 chart.

[bluearmy]

35 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is a very very slight indication of a scandi high way down the line on the ECM mean 240 chart.

Looking at the extended, I suspect there must be a scrussian ridge cluster. Also, this run brings back the w European upper trough which drifts slowly east and finally offers a split jet off the eastern seaboard late on. 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean indicates a colder trend later next week from the NW with showers turning to snow on northern hills.

[ITSY]

Fergie - any word on latest EC monthly?! 

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

With the NAO set to go negative again shortly, a very disrupted PV, Most longer ranges cold and stratospheric warming, I see cold potential right the way through December and possibly the end of November.  exciting times indeed.

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Fergie - any word on latest EC monthly?! 

After 10 I think, possibly around 10.30, ive never heard an update before 10pm.

[lorenzo]

The Arctic High sniffing around in the later stages of the GFS Ens at 12z is of particular interest, as far as model thread drama goes you cannot ask for much more than the original pantomime villain rearing his head for winter...