Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Sperrin]

Was just about to post that image, Ravelin. Looks a lot different to the same time from this mornings 06z.

 

[Ravelin]

1 minute ago, marksiwnc said:

Ian f did say that there could be a few windy spells before the transition. this could be what he had in mind maybe?? 

I'm no expert, but it could be possible. Experience says though that when the GFS blows a low up that quickly then more often than not it tempers it down quite a bit on the next model run.

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The general theme is okay though with the pattern becoming increasingly amplified in line with some of our resident experts expectations.

Yep, the detail will change but for now theme is great. Look at the block to the NE on this run!!!!

[Ali1977]

Massive Siberian / Scandy high in FI maybe!!! Can't post pics sorry.

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

But should it swing SE, it might turn into a 'snow hurricane'? What's more it might end up in the North Sea...So, on balance, a good outlook still...

"swinging" into these mild uppers I doubt even Scotland would manage snow .....

 

Edited November 10, 2016 by Tim Bland

[bluearmy]

The TD/possible hurricane still showing around day 10 on ecm op and para heading n through Cuba. 

If that were to verify and eject into the n Atlantic, I wonder how much it would affect the ec46 run from today for weeks 3 and 4.   Would guess it will hang over any output from the suite as being questionable until it can take the input on board which could be next Tuesdays output. 

The GFS Greenland tip dartboard low was on both the ecm op and para 00z to some degree.  The Atlantic profile not too different on gfs 12z v ecm 00z for T228

[Mucka]

Just now, That ECM said:

Yep, the detail will change but for now theme is great. Look at the block to the NE on this run!!!!

Yup perfect opportunity for retrograde pattern to set up if we got something like this. 

Let's hope we see the blocking theme continues.

[daz_4]

I will gladly take this run over the 6z which blew all the cold air from the western Russia away.

[northwestsnow]

Synoptically GFS12Z is beautiful, 1060 mb siberian high in all its glory, now can it push westwards ?

[Glacier Point]

..another GFS op showing a highly distressed upper vortex. The detail will change, but the broad gist isn't dissimilar to 18z, 00z and 06z...(you need to view as contour heights not temperature)

This stemming from troposheric pattern early November. There is more to come c/o wave 2 likely to hit end of November into December.

Edited November 10, 2016 by Glacier Point

[feb1991blizzard]

Very decent polar stratospheric profile as well.

EDIT : already pointed in the genius's post directly above!

Edited November 10, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

"swinging" into these mild uppers I doubt even Scotland would manage snow .....

 

Sorry, my bad...I mean, once it's passed to through North Scotty, it'll do two things: it'll pull-down cold northerlies on its western flank, and it'll get mixed up with whatever air is on the near-Continent...?

But, assuming it'll end-up wherever it's needed least - don't they all? - it doesn't matter, anyway: winter is still only ten days' old!

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, daz_4 said:

I will gladly take this run over the 6z which blew all the cold air from the western Russia away.

Great for your country but not the UK unfortunately.  This is a perfect example of how blocking and a disturbed PV doesn't always = cold.   This scenario has us mild and dry.  We would be seriously unlucky if this happened though ie the block is over us.    Ultimately the cold from eastern Europe could back west with time but it would require a trigger.  Glad to see the disturbed vortex still showing. As has been said many times this week... its a lottery,    but at least this year we have a ticket!

 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Great for your country but not the UK unfortunately.  This is a perfect example of how blocking and a disturbed PV doesn't always = cold.   This scenario has us mild and dry.  We would be seriously unlucky if this happened though ie the block is over us.    Ultimately the cold from eastern Europe could back west with time but it would require a trigger.  Glad to see the disturbed vortex still showing. As has been said many times this week... its a lottery,    but at least this year we have a ticket!

 

I would take that as a starting point for winter as from there the opportunities are plentiful.

[fergieweather]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The TD/possible hurricane still showing around day 10 on ecm op and para heading n through Cuba. 

If that were to verify and eject into the n Atlantic, I wonder how much it would affect the ec46 run from today for weeks 3 and 4.   Would guess it will hang over any output from the suite as being questionable until it can take the input on board which could be next Tuesdays output. 

Totally agree. Models have been playing with the Caribbean TD potential in latest runs and as you note, any such feature (should it become reality) then getting entrained into the pattern - with downstream effects - will cast major doubts over operational model handling of medium range, plus how the lagged 30-d models resolve it. We saw this sort of emergent saga with Nicole.

[bluearmy]

To add that I dont recall one gfs op having this feature so we can't even see what a run might do with the extra energy coming into the basin. 

Its on the gem 12z

[fergieweather]

12 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Great for your country but not the UK unfortunately.  This is a perfect example of how blocking and a disturbed PV doesn't always = cold.   This scenario has us mild and dry.  We would be seriously unlucky if this happened though ie the block is over us.    Ultimately the cold from eastern Europe could back west with time but it would require a trigger.  Glad to see the disturbed vortex still showing. As has been said many times this week... its a lottery,    but at least this year we have a ticket!

 

Doesn't look 'mild' to me from those Theta-W's and an inevitably quite chilly E/SE boundary layer flow...?

[fergieweather]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

To add that I dont recall one gfs op having this feature so we can't even see what a run might do with the extra energy coming into the basin. 

Its on the gem 12z

I don't think GFS has, but I haven't checked ENS. EC toyed with it; e.g. as per the low probs shown in the 00z tropical cyclone activity prognosis further into the month:

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, fergieweather said:

Doesn't look 'mild' to me from those Theta-W's and an inevitably quite chilly E/SE boundary layer flow...?

Yes, I think though some people on here wrongly (including myself) refer to anything other than a setup that can bring snow (ie, surface cold with a front moving over it or convective setup with circa -10c uppers) as mild!

[fergieweather]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, I think though some people on here wrongly (including myself) refer to anything other than a setup that can bring snow (ie, surface cold with a front moving over it or convective setup with circa -10c uppers) as mild!

Gotcha. Yup, admittedly not 'cold' as many on here might define the word. 

[Mucka]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

To add that I dont recall one gfs op having this feature so we can't even see what a run might do with the extra energy coming into the basin. 

Its on the gem 12z

Of course it's all about timing and phasing regarding potential mT mixing with the mP flow so no way to know. As far as I can make out it could just as easily aid blocking attempts to our NW as inhibit them.

[phil nw.]

Quite a noticeable injection of warm air heading north in the Arctic at day 5-note too the sharp turn of the jet into the Polar regions.

All that warmth heading up there is unsettling the pv and we can see what such wave action could do as we view the later frames.I think we will see all sorts of configurations in the vortex pattern in the coming days but that wave 1 action will certainly throw it off kilter.It's too early to say if we are looking at a proper warming but we are heading for some quite unusual charts i reckon.

 

Edited November 10, 2016 by phil nw.

[inghams85]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Of course it's all about timing and phasing regarding potential mT mixing with the mP flow so no way to know. As far as I can make out it could just as easily aid blocking attempts to our NW as inhibit them.

When did BA ever mention it would lead to mild? He said it would add uncertainty!! Haha! Very defensive strange comment

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

When did BA ever mention it would lead to mild? He said it would add uncertainty!! Haha! Very defensive strange comment

I think you are projecting. I didn't mention mild neither did I attack his comment. In fact I liked it as soon as he posted it.

Just do us both a favour and put me on ignore.

 

GFS 12z ensembles

Edited November 10, 2016 by Mucka

[feb1991blizzard]

4 hours ago, bluearmy said:

The bias corrected gefs is continually building heights to our ne in comparison to the non BC mean later week 2

 

Do I detect (all be it very slightly) a movement towards this solution on the standard GEFS (12z) and how does this tie in (or not) with Stewart's (albeit later) theory of a Mid Atlantic /Greenland ridge?