Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16

[Mucka]

Goodish support for eCM from JMA

Edited November 13, 2016 by Mucka

[karyo]

I am not a fan of this huge Russian high! It is a bit too far south for my liking and all it does is to cause a southerly in much of Europe, wasting away all the early cold.

[Banbury]

7 minutes ago, karyo said:

I am not a fan of this huge Russian high! It is a bit too far south for my liking and all it does is to cause a southerly in much of Europe, wasting away all the early cold.

Not that concerned at the minute seeing as the date is only November 13th .....................this is very early days

[bluearmy]

Just now, Banbury said:

Not that concerned at the minute seeing as the date is only November 13th .....................this is very early days

Indeed, those of a more technical nature have already explained why it's a good thing in the longer term. who wants to waste dream sypnotics in November.  the extended GEFS are removing the feature on their means although not convinced as yet. Awaiting the eps 12z to see if they continue the flattening of the downstream pattern as we head towards the end of November. 

The AO forecasts are trending slightly more negative with each ens suite. 

[Frosty.]

The Gem 12z shows a milder trend later in the run with swly winds backing sly and pumping air up from southern Europe as an atlantic low drifts south to the west of the uk and heights rise considerably to the east.

Edited November 13, 2016 by Frosty.

[Sweatyman]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gem 12z shows a milder trend later in the run with swly winds backing sly and pumping air up from southern Europe as an atlantic low dives south to the west of the uk and heights rise considerably to the east.

Well that can go and do one!

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

Well that can go and do one!

I'm just adding some balance, don't shoot the messenger

I actually don't think the GEM 12z will verify given the general trend..

Edited November 13, 2016 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

ECM latter stages: big blocking either side of us, cold winter and warm autumn separated by not very much!!

   

The UK is just about on the cold side but not by much. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean looks very good synoptically from a cold perspective for late november. P2 would do nicely!

Edited November 13, 2016 by Frosty.

[lorenzo]

Although this looks like a picture, it is modelling just on a very cool representation, this to me shows the depth of cold out east more readily than any of the current charts, considerable.

Now - what would we need to get it here...

 

 

[phil nw.]

As expected we do see the pattern re-amplify later in the week as the Atlantic ridging returns and the Greenland upper trough sends a segment this way ushering a cold cyclonic spell extending into next week end.

A look at the C.England gefs show the fall of in the 850;s and 500 temperatures after the next 2/3 days as that colder weather extends south.

 

no real deep cold in the ens members as yet,just running around the average after the colder spell from days 4-8 but the weaker vortex is still modeled in the gefs.Not enough in the way of +ve heights to indicate Arctic blocking as yet but we do see a disrupted vortex with a weak and amplified jet which is creating so many possible permutations.It's certainly different this year-no raging sw-ne jet and endless days of mild and wet. 

 

[MR EXTREMES]

7 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Although this looks like a picture, it is modelling just on a very cool representation, this to me shows the depth of cold out east more readily than any of the current charts, considerable.

Now - what would we need to get it here...

 

 

 a miracle or a channel runner.

[The Enforcer]

12 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Although this looks like a picture, it is modelling just on a very cool representation, this to me shows the depth of cold out east more readily than any of the current charts, considerable.

Now - what would we need to get it here...

 

 

Is that 2m temps? Is it for T+0? Is there a scale?

[Dancerwithwings]

37 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Is that 2m temps? Is it for T+0? Is there a scale?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=120.02,61.28,169/loc=105.800,68.820 

Just click on EARTH, overlay, temps, sfc, then the area/part of the earth, it will show the live temps for that area.

Sorry the above wasn't the 2m temps, this is  

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=147.57,69.81,256/loc=134.665,66.836

Edited November 13, 2016 by Dancerwithwings

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Evening All , From a purely winter loving fan I find tonights ecm and gfs outputs really exciting , after a briefly milder spell a blast of cold air from mid week onwards with snow on northern and western hills and mountains and IE Wales , even the Moors and Tors over Southwest England and perhaps the tops of the Cotswolds and Malverns.  Down the line both ecm and gfs at a very unreliable timeframe .......show plenty of high pressure over the Artic a broken Vortex and the Jet stream goes on holiday to North Africa  Happy Days

[Man With Beard]

A chart like this surely has potential for an easterly flow. 

The level of cold would depend on the positioning of the block to the east. If the southerly source into central Europe could be interrupted (could easily happen), we would go cold shortly after.

[ITSY]

i can't remember seeing so many frequent ensemble charts loaded with such blocking to our N and NW, run after run. It's been many years at least. We are but touching on the opening period of interest, so we should NOT yet expect to see raging blizzards in FI. Patience! 

[damianslaw]

Models in sync with jetstream profile forecast, i.e. a sinking deep trough moving down from the NW on a NW-SE trajectory, thanks to a highly amplified jetstream. The profile remains highly amplified as we move through into the latter part of the month, but I think there is a chance we may end up temporarily on the milder side of the jet - a little bit like now, for a short while, perhaps with a slow moving low pressure system anchored out to our west, drawing in a southerly flow, whilst all the time heights build strongly to the east, it would then only be a matter of time before the ridge rides over the low heights and draws us back onto the colder side again.

Its a very different scenario to where we were at this stage in the past 3 Novembers. Atmosphere is much more pre-disposed to colder outbreaks as we enter December for the first time since 2012. It is making for far more interesting model watching and just like 2012/2013, trough disruption seems much more likely than a powering jetstream riding troughs across the country with gusto.

Edited November 13, 2016 by damianslaw

[Ice Day]

4 minutes ago, ITSY said:

i can't remember seeing so many frequent ensemble charts loaded with such blocking to our N and NW, run after run. It's been many years at least. We are but touching on the opening period of interest, so we should NOT yet expect to see raging blizzards in FI. Patience! 

Great post, we are seeing the sort of synoptics that 'could' deliver a stunning winter. It's not nailed on and we do have a habit of clutching defeat from the jaws of victory on our little isle,  but we're in with a great shout of proper winter weather in the next 6-8 weeks.

[blizzard81]

Icelandic high beginning to form on the ECM day 10 op. Always a very welcome sight

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Icelandic high beginning to form on the ECM day 10 op. Always a very welcome sight

Yes and increasingly blocked to the east and west

Edited November 13, 2016 by Frosty.

[biggreyface]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes and increasingly blocked to the east and west

Yep definitely looks like the EXCITEMENT is building for winter

[damianslaw]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes and increasingly blocked to the east and west

Look at how amplified the pattern is as shown on the ECM model picture above - quite unusual for late November, when traditionally it should be at its flattest...

[bluearmy]

Current trend is for the upper trough to drop just west of the uk. Suspect this is to do with the models underestimating the strength of the blocking to our east. 

Disagreement in the longer term between the eps and GEFS re how long the Russian/Eastern European anomoly persists. Eps not letting go of them. 

[Bradowl]

Long term forecast on BBC just hinted at a blocked pattern week commencing 21st with hp to North building.