North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[cheshire snow]

16 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

I really hope it isn't another tease mate, as we can fare pretty well when it comes to fronts pushing up against a cold block.

I've stated in the mod thread we all deserve a change of fortune. This winter really has been exhausting in terms of looking for a proper cold spell with proper snow.

Let's hope the trend from the UKMO & ECM continue later on. The GFS can do one as it always tries to just barge the high out of the way in these situations then later backtracks into line. Interesting 12z runs coming up tonight. Back up the flaming roller coaster we go!

Indeed mate,I wish the GFS would do one,but it won't and whilst there is such disagreement it is certainly squeeky bum time.lets see what the next few days brings

Lots of ups and downs me thinks....

C.S

Edited January 24, 2017 by cheshire snow

[Weather-history]

7 hours ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I'm convinced there is something wrong with the thermometer at Manchester Airport.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/maps/current?ART=karte&TYP=wetter&LANG=en&UP=0&WMO=03334&CONT=ukuk&NOREGION=0&CEL=C&TIME=std&LEVEL=140&R=310

 

Min temp overnight was apparently +2C yet at home in Withington (near the Christie) everything is frozen solid. Thick ice on all the pavements, and the cars are all caked in it. 

My area can't be a frost hollow surely? 

Its not the first time I've noticed it this winter. 

Yes, I've noticed this as well and has got me thinking.

[Joe Bloggs]

1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

Yes, I've noticed this as well and has got me thinking.

It must be wrong. Not the first time I've noticed this winter. If anything Ringway should be colder than the city, surely? 

Not good given it's an official station and isn't it one for calculating the CET? 

[dodge]

I see some of the models are gathering the troops at the top of the usual spot again..

 

Who knows, I don't.  Maybe this time something promising could be at the end of it, but on the basis of previous 5-7 day predictions I won't be getting up from the garden bench just yet.

[Day 10]

3 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

I see some of the models are gathering the troops at the top of the usual spot again..

 

Who knows, I don't.  Maybe this time something promising could be at the end of it, but on the basis of previous 5-7 day predictions I won't be getting up from the garden bench just yet.

I'm already walking past the daffs

[damianslaw]

An unusual situation developing for Thursday, a cold surface flow moving through the region from the SE, with strong winds, BBC forecasting an ice day here, despite preety warm uppers, on paper you'd think no way.. but alas it is the strength of the wind which will aid the very low temperatures - a long draw from a frigid France with no modification. Who says you need -10 uppers for an ice day. All very interesting indeed, Thursday will be a bleak very raw day with little sunshine and the chance of some snow flurries - a colder version of Sunday. 

Looking ahead, I'm reminded of events 20-24 Feb 94, when the BBC was forecasting a quick march of mild air and rain from the atlantic, but beneath there noses, the fronts stalled and struggled against building heights to the north, we were rewarded with a foot of snow. Not saying this will happen, but it can happen when you have weak ineffectual atlantic and a cold block near our shores. 

[Frost HoIIow]

The wind feeling a tad chilly on Thursday!

[pip22]

Chorley got me below freezing all day tomorrow!!

Proper Ice day coming up!!

[cheshire snow]

1 hour ago, pip22 said:

Chorley got me below freezing all day tomorrow!!

Proper Ice day coming up!!

Indeed with a feel like temperature of -7c add on the wind,the snow grains,and the freezing drizzle it is going to be an unpleasant day all round.

C.S. 

[Day 10]

16 hours ago, dodgeredee said:

I see some of the models are gathering the troops at the top of the usual spot again..

 

Who knows, I don't.  Maybe this time something promising could be at the end of it, but on the basis of previous 5-7 day predictions I won't be getting up from the garden bench just yet.

 

16 hours ago, Day 10 said:

I'm already walking past the daffs

I have stopped halfway up the path, I will await this evenings runs before deciding whether to carry on or turn around and join dodgeredee on the bench....

[weatherobsuk]

If I knew the weather was going to be this clear today i'd have gone down to the airport with the D3100 for some snaps, eerily warm though in the sunshine today sat-out in the garden watching the overheads flying above (something i've struggled to do during this month.) Forecast has the airport down for a bone-chilling -11'c in the wind for tomorrow however, i think i'll pass on that, and make the best of today's blue-skies.

[robbo88]

Met office and BBC apps both have me down for a high of -1c at midday tomorrow. 

 

[cheshire snow]

Yes Robbo

fully expect quite a few ice day reports tomorrow going be a short but very cold blast of continental air.

C.S

[itsnowjoke]

Well I can feel the cold now 

Quote

 

[Frost HoIIow]

Dew point dropping..... continental air slowly making it's presence felt, going to be absolutely freezing tomorrow. Defo the coldest feeling day of the Winter. Probably an ice day for many of us even close to the coast.

[iand61]

when Di goes through a full forecast without once mentioning the mild word you are pretty sure that plenty of layers are going to needed.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, iand61 said:

when Di goes through a full forecast without once mentioning the mild word you are pretty sure that plenty of layers are going to needed.

she'll be happy next week, with rain and wind and mild, flood warnings by this time next week

[Weather-history]

4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

she'll be happy next week, with rain and wind and mild, flood warnings by this time next week

 

GFS rainfall totals on 12z run by Tuesday 06z

Given also the dryness of recent weeks, do you really think their will be flood warning by this time next week?

[iand61]

13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

 

GFS rainfall totals on 12z run by Tuesday 06z

Given also the dryness of recent weeks, do you really think their will be flood warning by this time next week?

Looks like the worst of the rain is in the south so given the amount of frost they've had in the last couple of weeks it's possible.

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Looks like the worst of the rain is in the south so given the amount of frost they've had in the last couple of weeks it's possible.

 

yeah for Midlands, ECM looks worse, I'm going for one of wettest February's on record, could be horrendous, flooding to make the news! If I worked for 'em, I'd put it in the express! but this time realistic, not the stupid cold/snow things

[Weather-history]

5 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Looks like the worst of the rain is in the south so given the amount of frost they've had in the last couple of weeks it's possible.

 

 

Talking about NW England though, Diane Oxberry talking about flooding next Wednesday for our region?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

 

Talking about NW England though, Diane Oxberry talking about flooding next Wednesday for our region?

maybe not that soon, but get ready it's coming!

[cheshire snow]

12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yeah for Midlands, ECM looks worse, I'm going for one of wettest February's on record, could be horrendous, flooding to make the news! If I worked for 'em, I'd put it in the express! but this time realistic, not the stupid cold/snow things

WOW February sorted then,come of it you are having a laugh.Even the Met office have no idea how next month will turn out.

The forecast SSW is causing absolute Havoc with the models as the last two days has proved,and to be quite honest your above suggestion is something like The Express would come up with 

C.S

 

Edited January 25, 2017 by cheshire snow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

WOW February sorted then,come of it you are having a laugh.Even the Met office have no idea how next month will turn out.

The forecast SSW is causing absolute Havoc with the models as the last two days has proved,and to be quite honest your above suggestion is something like The Express would come up with 

C.S

 

No, the express would come up with SSW on way, 6 week mega freeze for the UK, I really believe a very wet February is realistic

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

No, the express would come up with SSW on way, 6 week mega freeze for the UK, I really believe a very wet February is realistic

Agree to disagree then.

C.S