SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

[karlos1983]

Wave inbound!! All eyes down

Looks good to me 

Edited January 10, 2017 by karlos1983

[Mapantz]

Cold air not digging in quick enough behind it..

Just left with this..

Edited January 10, 2017 by Mapantz

[festivalking]

24 minutes ago, khodds said:

This weather watching is really interfering with my work!! Can't wait til home time!! 

Viewing at work for me is certainly easier than viewing from home.....where my real job is!

[Nights King]

13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Wave inbound!! All eyes down

Looks good to me 

Karlos your killing me now 

My nerves are shot through is it really still showing over west country 

[festivalking]

1 minute ago, Nights King said:

Karlos your killing me now 

My nerves are shot through is it really still showing over west country 

 

16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Wave inbound!! All eyes down

Looks good to me 

 

I know these ppn charts are a bit piff but, hey, thats lookng like some heavy wintery stuff for NK and my locale. Dare to dream?

[festivalking]

 

A closer view makes great viewing. This is of course is for a mere 3 hours after 6 hours of rain, but hey!!!

[Nights King]

4 minutes ago, festivalking said:

 

A closer view makes great viewing. This is of course is for a mere 3 hours after 6 hours of rain, but hey!!!

You have to ignore the exact timing of transition on charts. I love this sort of event though waiting and watching as rain turns to sleet then to snow and you watch it work its way down from the hill tops to sea level hopefully. 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Nights King

[jethro]

It is with some trepidation that I logged into here....will it, won't it? Has this mornings promise gone up in smoke? Relieved to hear we're still in with a shout, probably even better than first thing this morning.

Sign of a snow starved saddo....I usually have Wednesday off, I've changed that to Thursday this week. If we're in with a shot at snow, especially as it's likely to be marginal, I'm blowed if I'm going to work and be 150mtrs lower all day and miss out on something falling at home. I'll be staying put on my Mendip hill.

[jethro]

5 minutes ago, festivalking said:

 

A closer view makes great viewing. This is of course is for a mere 3 hours after 6 hours of rain, but hey!!!

But wouldn't it be wonderful if the temps are a bit off and we actually got the full 9 hours as all snow Yeah I know, dream on.

[Nights King]

6 minutes ago, jethro said:

It is with some trepidation that I logged into here....will it, won't it? Has this mornings promise gone up in smoke? Relieved to hear we're still in with a shout, probably even better than first thing this morning.

Sign of a snow starved saddo....I usually have Wednesday off, I've changed that to Thursday this week. If we're in with a shot at snow, especially as it's likely to be marginal, I'm blowed if I'm going to work and be 150mtrs lower all day and miss out on something falling at home. I'll be staying put on my Mendip hill.

I might even drive up to mendip golf course and welcome in the first flakes at 305m jeth if it happens its been so long   Beakon Batch woods is another nice place in snow.

Or I could walk that is rather lazy of me 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Nights King

[Mapantz]

I'm gonna stick my head on the line by saying this will be a 100% rain event along the coasts, even marginal slightly further inland. Higher ground is the obvious choice, but if the cold air doesn't dig in quick enough, you're talking 0.5 - 1cm/hr snow rates. These precip charts are not painting the full picture.

[ARTDEMOLE]

 

Here I shall stay on the hillcrest of a high round hill here .Start of the Cotswolds, 159ft. Awaiting those few or many precious flakes of glory......

Edited January 10, 2017 by ARTDEMOLE

[Andy Bown]

We might not even get any precipitation on Thursday yet. THese waving fronts are never accurately forecast even up until an hour beforehand. It could just as easily stay over France.

[jethro]

7 minutes ago, Nights King said:

I might even drive up to mendip golf course and welcome in the first flakes at 305m jeth if it happens its been so long   Beakon Batch woods is another nice place in snow.

Or I could walk that is rather lazy of me 

I'll probably end up at Stockhill if it happens, brilliant sledging to be had in those woods. Plus just a short trip to the Queen Vic for a warm up.

[jethro]

3 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

We might not even get any precipitation on Thursday yet. THese waving fronts are never accurately forecast even up until an hour beforehand. It could just as easily stay over France.

Hush now, I'm nowhere near ready to be woken from my dreams.

[AWD]

39 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Wave inbound!! All eyes down

Looks good to me 

Rain - Heavy rain/hill snow - light snizzle.

Probably the most realistic outcome too.

[festivalking]

Just now, Mapantz said:

I'm gonna stick my head on the line by saying this will be a 100% rain event along the coasts, even marginal slightly further inland. Higher ground is the obvious choice, but if the cold air doesn't dig in quick enough, you're talking 0.5 - 1cm/hr snow rates. These precip charts are not painting the full picture.

I agree these PPN are just for fun!!

[khodds]

Still not believing it. One day, just one day,  our dreams will come true and we will get hammered. What's the betting it's not this week but when we are in our 90s and won't even care?  100% guaranteed.

blimey I'm sounding a depressing pain in the bum!! Lol!  

[AWD]

12z Hirlam also keeps the majority of PPN in the channel;

What little PPN that does make it further inland is more geared towards rainfall rather than snowfall with some parameters the wrong side of marginal for us;

A lot of higher res modelling is keeping the PPN further south than some global modelling ala GFS.

Mmmmm....................

[Frank Trough]

"not bad" he said in the MOD!

[Dorsetbred]

2 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

"not bad" he said in the MOD!

The yellow are the sunshine snow free areas...right?

[AWD]

12z Arpege also similiar to the 12z Hirlam in keeping most of the PPN in the channel;

With conditions further inland the wrong side of marginal away from the highest parts of our region for snowfall anyway;

I know where I'm starting to draw some initial conclusions toward now.

[Nights King]

18 minutes ago, Certain kind of fool said:

"not bad" he said in the MOD!

That map really is a kick in the teeth.. 

Oh and cheer up AWD this is closest near miss we will have seen in 5 years... 

[Bristawl Si]

Surprisingly GFS short term (24 hrs or less) was better than other mods for forecasting snow back in the good winters of 09/10 and 10/11 if i remember correctly.

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, Nights King said:

That map really is a kick in the teeth.. 

Oh and cheer up AWD this is closest near miss we will have seen in 5 years... 

Yeah but look at snow 'depths'........aint worth a ****!