SW & CS England Regional Weather Discussion

[khodds]

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

5th Jan '98 for me

What happened? I'm wondering in this day and age with all this technology whether Thursday could go completely in our favour (straw clutching!)

[MidnightSnow]

2 minutes ago, khodds said:

Out of interest, can anyone remember of any time that the forecasters said it would be rain that falls and it ended up being snow? 

It's happened many times for sure.. although I couldn't give you a specific time.

I have a gut feeling there will be some pleasant surprises for some on Friday.. even if it's just a dusting. What usually happens is the main event is a let down and then there's some unexpected shower activity the day after when it's colder.

[ARTDEMOLE]

Watching. Wondering. Waiting. Willing it...

[MidnightSnow]

3 minutes ago, khodds said:

What happened? I'm wondering in this day and age with all this technology whether Thursday could go completely in our favour (straw clutching!)

Nothing wrong with a good straw clutch.  A 20% chance of significant snow is better than I thought. A few minor changes could swing it even more in our favour.

 

[karlos1983]

15 minutes ago, khodds said:

Out of interest, can anyone remember of any time that the forecasters said it would be rain that falls and it ended up being snow? 

If the met say it's looking good for a cold spell it will be mild, if they say rain.....snow 150% 

[karlos1983]

Upgrade 

This ain't over by a long stretch 

Edited January 10, 2017 by karlos1983

[AWD]

5 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

It's happened many times for sure.. although I couldn't give you a specific time.

I have a gut feeling there will be some pleasant surprises for some on Friday.. even if it's just a dusting. What usually happens is the main event is a let down and then there's some unexpected shower activity the day after when it's colder.

If there is PPN about, then conditions for snow would be somewhat better on Friday, but there is a lack of any noteworthy PPN across the NWP output for our region.

[khodds]

YES!!!! Upgrade.... still a long way to go before we know but it's in our favour!

obviously the METO aren't too concerned at this stage though judging by latest tweets 

Edited January 10, 2017 by khodds

[MidnightSnow]

 

[fromey]

Nice little upgrade so far for Thursday evening 

[festivalking]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Upgrade 

This ain't over by a long stretch 

You damn right it ain't over yet. Upgrade here to 3 hours of heavy snow now Thursday afternoon. Even Plymouth has some sleet!

[karlos1983]

I think it's best to remain open minded RE Thursday. After all, it's what makes me go to the offi every Friday and buy a Lottery Ticket.. you gotta be in it to win it. We are in it..

[AWD]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Upgrade 

Don't mean to be a party pooper but that looks better than what it actually is for our little corner.

The UK only graphs show a rain - heavy rain - hill snow - light snow - snizzle event for a lot of our region.

The further south & west & lower down you are in the region, more rain less snow, the further north & east you are still some rain, but more potential snow.

Still, doubt any model is 100% accurate yet, only the lampost will unveil the true outcome.

[chris55]

All those bemoaning an easterly...... show me one heavy widespread snowstorm for the south west that came about without at least some kind of easterly element entrenching the cold air first???

our very best snowfalls come from Atlantic fronts bumping into cold dry continental air, 90% of the time from an easterly flow.

Thursdays "potential" is a good example in a way, although some may well get lucky, the northerly flow isn't quite cold enough re dew points etc for a guaranteed widespread event.  Whereas if we had entrenched dry cold continental air in place it would be far less marginal.

So even though for us lot an easterly may well be dry initially , it's the breakdown attempts from the west that give us our best shot at real widespread snowfalls  

Edited January 10, 2017 by chris55

[MidnightSnow]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think it's best to remain open minded RE Thursday. After all, it's what makes me go to the offi every Friday and buy a Lottery Ticket.. you gotta be in it to win it. We are in it..

 

 

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, AWD said:

Don't mean to be a party pooper but that looks better than what it actually is for our little corner.

The UK only graphs show a rain - heavy rain - hill snow - light snow - snizzle event for a lot of our region

 

 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

Don't mean to be a party pooper but that looks better than what it actually is for our little corner.

The UK only graphs show a rain - heavy rain - hill snow - light snow - snizzle event for a lot of our region.

The further south & west & lower down you are in the region, more rain less snow, the further north & east you are still some rain, but more potential snow.

Still, doubt any model is 100% accurate yet, only the lampost will unveil the true outcome.

I know AWD, but it is getting better each run, so I remain hopeful that we will see some snow.

[festivalking]

Met office and BBC apps showing back edge snow. Checked for my folks location who are near Wareham and they have a couple of hours of snow. So hey it won't lay but least there is a chance. Until they change there mind for the umpteenth time but this why we are here. The thrill of the chase!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, festivalking said:

Met office and BBC apps showing back edge snow. Checked for my folks location who are near Wareham and they have a couple of hours of snow. So hey it won't lay but least there is a chance. Until they change there mind for the umpteenth time but this why we are here. The thrill of the chase!

Exactly. Can't we just enjoy the prospect of wintery precipitation. 

Even if we are kidding ourselves 

Edited January 10, 2017 by karlos1983

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I know AWD, but it is getting better each run, so I remain hopeful that we will see some snow.

I have no doubt that some of us somewhere around the region will see some falling snow in our region, the high up members could get a good covering, ie Mendips, Exmoor based on GFS 18z Op.

However, at this stage I don't expect much more than that, but I await tomorrow's modelling in the hope of some good widespread upgrades.

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, AWD said:

I have no doubt that some of us somewhere around the region will see some falling snow in our region, the high up members could get a good covering, ie Mendips, Exmoor based on GFS 18z Op.

However, at this stage I don't expect much more than that, but I await tomorrow's modelling in the hope of some good widespread upgrades.

I'll look out for an AWD ramp then, as we are sure to get the good stuff if that happens 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

33 minutes ago, khodds said:

What happened? I'm wondering in this day and age with all this technology whether Thursday could go completely in our favour (straw clutching!)

heaviest snow I think I have seen, few cms dumped after rain! forecast was all rain!

[karlos1983]

 

And my met office app now shows light snow from 6pm to midnight Thursday 

Edited January 10, 2017 by karlos1983

[khodds]

Mine says sleet for a meazly 3 hours still.  I keep checking!!

[khodds]

@karlos1983 guess what?

 

 

IVE RUN OUT OF LIKES TODAY!!!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, khodds said:

@karlos1983 guess what?

 

 

IVE RUN OUT OF LIKES TODAY!!!

Khodds.... 

karlos likes this...

Ditto 

Edited January 10, 2017 by karlos1983