SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Hanny]

10 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I acknowkedge those that stick up a long range forecast and a FI chart but we all know anything past 10 days is pushing the limits especially in such a scenario where we can't really determine the actions if the PV, the models don't pick up on the signs too well with the weak shifting if the Polar Vortex.

It could go one way or the other, amazing some right off the whole month on Day 1 let alone the whole of Winter and compare it to last year already.

Those that stick up detailed LRFs and share professional knowledge shouldnt be slaughtered when things don't show what others want to read.

 

 

 

Well said

[alexisj9]

 frost this morning, clouded over just after dusk last night, and I assume stayed like that all night. Still cloudy now, and will probably stay that way.

[Kent Blizzard]

Cloudier day today, slight mist on the horizon but nothing major. Notice the air slightly milder, will feel fresh again by Sunday under clearer sky and a noticeable E'ly breeze....but not for long!

Edited December 2, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Daniel*]

Quite a typical November day however mild it is not. / just realised I'm losing the plot! 

We must be running quite a big deal below average lately temps struggling to get much above 5c, with some hard frosts, sad to see this go, all very unusual for my location.

We have to go back to 2010 to see anything remotely similar. Not overjoyed with the model output, but my eyes are glued to mid month. 

Edited December 2, 2016 by Changing Skies

[Dami]

slightly milder today, grey and slightly misty. Chilly when I opened the door to receive chippy lunch from hubs. 

No frost, but i thought I felt a bit of rain 

[Reefseeker]

15 hours ago, Mal Kapadia said:

Frosty and a bit icy outside where the days ground frost melted this afternoon and has now frozen! 

Indeed, the mean streets of Surbiton were very slippery last night walking the dog, with some stretches of pavement solidly white for three nights in a row and the roads a bit slippy for us two-legged and four-legged pedestrians.

As others have said, the cloud arrived and de-sparkled the cars overnight, so no frost clearing of the windscreen required and an above zero temperature on the car thermometer this morning.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

Overcast all day here, quite mild outside too today.

[shotski]

Genuinely gutted with the latest model output, just goes to show that as far as technology goes we're still a long way off figuring out Mother Nature. I know it's only the second day of winter but as we know from previous winters it's difficult to shift a pattern once it's set up. I was so looking forward to a frosty seasonal run up to Xmas. 

[alexisj9]

Having a strange evening now, I see stars, but it's also raining lightly.

[slater]

Winter over even before it's began! Massive confidence now that the Atlantic will win the battle, so I guess the 30% probability from the met office cold start to winter was wrong lol! If you read my posts in October other weather agencies were heading for mild for UK, seems they were right as the blocking which shift start of winter how spot on were they!

[JennyJane1]

Today walking to work reminded me of the november walks to school in the 70s with the cold air you could see as you were breathing, shame i didn't eat my readybrek and have a glowing red line all round me.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Think we are seeing the phenomenon of industrial precipitation. Must be an inversion with the stagnant high pressure and temperature differences at the surface compared to higher above! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

I did say..  I won't get smug until March if it pans out 

Model thread is a bit down beat.. 

[alexisj9]

 The sky looks like there's a proper convective easterly blowing. Shame the uppers are far to warm.

[Ben Lewis]

10 hours ago, Surrey said:

I did say..  I won't get smug until March if it pans out 

Model thread is a bit down beat.. 

Yes it's only 3rd December- Definitely don't get to smug, although you will probably be right as you've described above - being a default UK winter pattern.

Pretty predictable and an obvious winter summary, which probably most members on this thread would go with! 

[stainesbloke]

Clear air, showing nicely on satellite, steadily moving W and slightly N from the continent has just arrived here  Not as cool at 7C currently and little wind again.

[Dami]

Had some rain last night, during the run to swimming. Where we go is normally a few degrees warmer than home(outside!), so if it freezing there you know it's cold.

Christmas will arrive today, even the bottle of bleach has snow flakes on it. 'winter spiced bleach who would of thought it?

Hubs has brought more lights and stuffs for the crimbo table. Am very happy. 

Cool outside and the sun has just appeared.

[alexisj9]

Been sunny all day here, with cumulus around. Wind gusting between 30-35 from the ese. DP has been slowly falling during the day, which you would expect. The dry air is coming.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

5 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

Yes it's only 3rd December- Definitely don't get to smug, although you will probably be right as you've described above - being a default UK winter pattern.

Pretty predictable and an obvious winter summary, which probably most members on this thread would go with! 

Got it bang on last year and the year before can he make it a third! 

 

[Ben Lewis]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

 

As it's the most obvious and predictable outcome I'd say you have a good chance of being right again. 

Not sure I'd big myself up for predicting a prodomently wet and mild winter though... your probability is already there as UK winters turn out. 

Bit like going for a snowy and cold Eastern Canada winter - the probability is already there. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

7 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

Yes it's only 3rd December- Definitely don't get to smug, although you will probably be right as you've described above - being a default UK winter pattern.

Pretty predictable and an obvious winter summary, which probably most members on this thread would go with! 

Got it bang on last year and the year before can he make it a third! 

Not quite,  predicting the UKs weather for the next 3 months is slightly different to that of say alaska Russia etc given we are an island to start with and we have a warm ocean to West cold to the north and east. Our weather is unpredictable and sometimes fast pace. 

Give it a try,  it's good fun to see how close you get! 

[Daniel*]

Feeling very chilly today E winds. Brrrrr.

 

[Ben Lewis]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Not quite,  predicting the UKs weather for the next 3 months is slightly different to that of say alaska Russia etc given we are an island to start with and we have a warm ocean to West cold to the north and east. Our weather is unpredictable and sometimes fast pace. 

Give it a try,  it's good fun to see how close you get! 

I agree that our Island is perhaps a little more versatile in weather types over short periods. But it's not what I would call extreme- ie; viscous snow storms and hurricanes. 

Our weather may be unpredictable but its not on the high extremities bar the odd occasions. It's unpredictably in 'will it rain today' or 'will it be dry' - lol 

Going for a wet and mild winter is pretty obvious, it's the UK default winter pattern! 

If you were predicting a UK deep cold lock in for 2 months - that's something you should pat your self on the back for if it were to materialise. 

But anyway, I'm with you on your winter summary and think you will make the 3rd strike :-) 

[Mal_UK]

Supposed to be 2 to 4 degrees tonight however there is already a very heavy frost on the cars.... 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

38 minutes ago, Mal Kapadia said:

Supposed to be 2 to 4 degrees tonight however there is already a very heavy frost on the cars.... 

Met office was going for - 2 maybe - 3 right out in the sticks I already have frost too and frozen ground its all crunchy again!!  I'm a little down beat about the incoming mild weather next week but we have had some decent sunny weather and dry!  

A wide spread frost though tonight away from Eastern costal counties even central London going below zero