SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[Kent Blizzard]

Looks cold for Central/Eastern and South Eastern Europe...as always it seems

Edited December 8, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Kent Blizzard]

Not the most exciting read, certainly not like it was in 2010  BUT could well be a cold and frosty Christmas?

Latest Meto written updates into FI highlighting the key phrases for us in the SE/E

UK Outlook for Tuesday 13 Dec 2016 to Thursday 22 Dec 2016:

It'll be dry and bright for most, but patchy overnight frost and fog are likely in the southeast. Through the week periods of wet and windy weather are expected to move across the UK from the west. The most unsettled conditions are likely across the north and west, with drier and brighter weather for southern and eastern areas. It'll be windy at times, with the possibility of gales in the west and northwest, but it will be much less windy further south and east. By mid December there'll probably be some longer, drier spells between the wet weather, perhaps heralding a change to something generally more settled. It'll be fairly mild initially but temperatures are likely to return closer to normal, although passing weather systems may raise them at times.

Updated at: 1140 on Thu 8 Dec 2016

UK Outlook for Friday 23 Dec 2016 to Friday 6 Jan 2017:

Whilst there is a good deal of uncertainty for this period, it is most likely that more settled conditions may dominate associated with high pressure affecting the UK. If the pressure does build, then we can expect drier than average conditions for most areas with lighter winds. Temperatures are also then likely to be below average with an increased risk of frost and fog, especially where skies remain clear overnight. There will probably also be some milder, unsettled interludes though, and as we head into the New Year this may become more of a feature in our weather, with the greatest likelihood of changeable conditions in the northwest, giving rain here at times.

Updated at: 1141 on Thu 8 Dec 2016

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast

Edited December 8, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Kent Blizzard]

Crikey its quiet in here today........Is everyone at the Beach? 

[alexisj9]

Been a mild cloudy day, with a bit of drizzle when the front went through.

[Captain Shortwave]

Again today was pretty bright with some sunny spells, there was a shower late morning but that was it.

[slater]

So 1st week of winter done and not a sniff of cold, Christmas charts are out and already heading for the 5th mild Christmas in a row, beyond that into 2017, much the same. Met office must be embarrassed to even predict a cold start to Winter yes was only a 30% chance and 70% of it not which is now the case. The "blocking high" which was with us most of November just now a distant memory.  Hey ho current balmy temp at 8 am 13.3 c just crazy couple more days then back to normal temps for a while then back to low teens run up to Christmas. Record temp for me last December 16.3c will i hit that again possibly!

[Ben Lewis]

Didn't have to put the heating on last night for the first time in a few weeks. Drove to work with the window down... Incredibly mild out there. At least it isn't raining. Not often we get this mild stuff without lashings of rain at this time of year, one positive at least.

So 11.5c at 8am in Hertfordshire this morning and doesn't feel seasonal or chrismassy at all.... A standard British run up to Christmas then, nothing new there.

Id rather have this mild weather now as everything Christmas takes over and I haven't time to worry about a SW Wind, we need it to turn cold and snowy in January to help with those "back to work/another year" blues....

 

[Blessed Weather]

Dull and dreary. But enough about me.

Checking the overnight temperatures at the local Met Off station at Wattisham and they actually went UP as the night progressed! From 10C at midnight to 11.3C by 07.00 this morning.

Wattisham overnight

I think I'm going to sit and write my first thriller. Working title "The great winter robbery". It's going to have a very exciting, fast moving opening chapter with a lurking "beast", then bit of a twist to the plot as the beast turns out to be a "slug". I'm still working on the end - can't make up my mind. Any ideas anyone?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Heavy, lowering clouds here - the sort that, if seen on a sultry summers' day would be the warning signs of an approaching thunderstorm.

[Dami]

13 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Heavy, lowering clouds here - the sort that, if seen on a sultry summers' day would be the warning signs of an approaching thunderstorm.

I couldn't of put this better myself! Very mild and humid feeling and yes the clouds looked like we had either had a storm or one was coming. 

[Kent Blizzard]

I'm quite interested in the Meto Outlook written update today, just hoping it's published before they have the Pub Lunch

[Kent Blizzard]

Here Goes

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Wednesday 14 Dec 2016 to Friday 23 Dec 2016:

As we move through next week we are mostly likely to see a north-west to south-east split developing. During this time periods of wet and windy weather are expected to approach the UK from the west, however their eastward progression at this stage is fairly uncertain. In this type of scenario the most unsettled conditions are likely across the north and west, with drier and brighter weather for southern and eastern areas. It'll be windy at times, with the possibility of gales in the west and northwest, but it will be much less windy further south and east. It'll generally be mild with temperatures above average, however, in between weather systems temperatures will return closer to normal.

Updated at: 1222 on Fri 9 Dec 2016

UK Outlook for Saturday 24 Dec 2016 to Saturday 7 Jan 2017:

There is a good deal of uncertainty for this period as the UK remains in a battleground between higher pressure across the near continent and lower pressure in the Atlantic. The exact orientation of these will dictate conditions across the country. Currently western parts are most likely to see outbreaks of rain at times, along with relatively mild conditions, whilst eastern areas will see drier and perhaps colder conditions. There will probably also be some milder, unsettled interludes though, especially into early January, with the greatest likelihood of changeable conditions in the northwest, giving rain here at times.

Updated at: 1223 on Fri 9 Dec 2016

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u10khsx41#?fcTime=1481241600

Edited December 9, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[lassie23]

Disgusting output from the models, a green Christmas and mild for most of December.

[Lauren]

On ‎06‎/‎12‎/‎2016 at 11:44, Kent Blizzard said:

A quick little community poll/question for us SE/EA Folk.....

Many of us seem to chase the snow, we want it, we want to see it, we have been starved of it for the last few years. In many Winters I've witnessed since the early 80's  we only use to get a couple of days of snow and if it lasted on the ground for 5 days then that was amazing, now from memory this use to happen almost every winter, or it felt like it.

So...

Q: Would you take 2 days of snow this Winter if it means the rest of Winter bring us Average or above Average temperatures?

 

The reason I ask is we are only 6 days into Winter with plenty of days to go right up till end of Feb, even though we all know Spring can often bring good snowfall and despite what some say it can stay on the ground for a while even in the longer days of sunlight. I don't see the reason to be so downbeat at present. If we was already into the start of Feb then perhaps.

Only if it's that proper heavy snow that means everything becomes winter wonderland and we can all go play in it as no one can get into work.

[MAF]

Well it is nice and bright here in C London now. The grey start to the day has given way to mild and sunny. I cant remember the last time we had any significant rain in SE London, so am hoping the rain on saturday will wash away all the horrible residue from the gritting we had over the frosty period. The lack of rain makes me wonder just how much we have had over Autumn and whether it is significantly below the average or not.

[Kent Blizzard]

Awooooga Brave Call LOL 

[seaside 60]

2 hours ago, MAF said:

Well it is nice and bright here in C London now. The grey start to the day has given way to mild and sunny. I cant remember the last time we had any significant rain in SE London, so am hoping the rain on saturday will wash away all the horrible residue from the gritting we had over the frosty period. The lack of rain makes me wonder just how much we have had over Autumn and whether it is significantly below the average or not.

Dont know of the actual details but it must be well below average.

[seaside 60]

1 hour ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Awooooga Brave Call LOL 

Love it, other third party weather types wont know this weather is coming, classic.......

[Emz by the Thames]

Tonsillitis fever plus 12.1c outside at night makes for feeling more like the Bahamas that Christmas. I am so hot.

Having said that, dozing on the allotment in a mild breeze and hazy sun, very pleasant.

I think "front loaded winter" was simply "a few frosts".

[Blessed Weather]

6 hours ago, MAF said:

Well it is nice and bright here in C London now. The grey start to the day has given way to mild and sunny. I cant remember the last time we had any significant rain in SE London, so am hoping the rain on saturday will wash away all the horrible residue from the gritting we had over the frosty period. The lack of rain makes me wonder just how much we have had over Autumn and whether it is significantly below the average or not.

Certainly October was much drier than the 1981-2010 average.

But November at face value not such a clear picture. My take from a closer look at the Met Office charts is that the month in fact had long spells of dry and cold weather, but because this was punctuated by several days of heavy rain, the overall monthly average turned out to be close to average.

Nov Rainfall anomaly  Rain days anomaly

But certainly colder than average

[seaside 60]

12 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Certainly October was much drier than the 1981-2010 average.

But November at face value not such a clear picture. My take from a closer look at the Met Office charts is that the month in fact had long spells of dry and cold weather, but because this was punctuated by several days of heavy rain, the overall monthly average turned out to be close to average.

Nov Rainfall anomaly  Rain days anomaly

But certainly colder than average

Trouble is to me it seems like a very dry last few weeks.

Most of the wetness is from weather like recent days on the ground.
To me this has been a very dry autumn, very few days lost to rain, despite what the figures show.

How many days can you remember that were a wipe out...esp down here in this corner.

[Blessed Weather]

17 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Trouble is to me it seems like a very dry last few weeks.

Most of the wetness is from weather like recent days on the ground.
To me this has been a very dry autumn, very few days lost to rain, despite what the figures show.

How many days can you remember that were a wipe out...esp down here in this corner.

I wish my memory was better! When I wrote my post I had a nagging feeling that we did indeed have a couple of days of heavy rain that would have cancelled out the longer dry spells during November to give (on face value) an average rainfall month, but I couldn't remember when. Then it came to me - Storm Angus on the 20th November. Followed the next day by frequent bands of heavy showers moving through. Here's some posts (from pages 20 and 21 of the thread):

Nov 20th
We have had quite a bit of rain, not much wind though. (Captain Shortwave)
Nothing to note here (wind) only a lot of rain fell! (Surrey)
We did have over 40mm of rain. (katemart)

Nov 21st
It's absolutely throwing it down! (Ed Stone)
Drenching has started. (lassie23)
Absolutely tipping it down here. (PurpleButterfly)
Very dark with heavy rain here now. (80sWeather)
Very heavy rain has passed through here, some tropical intensity bursts in there! (Stainesbloke)

[Captain Shortwave]

Yeah November rainfall was completely skewed by two areas of low pressure which moved across us in two consecutive days, a head on collision which meant we got a lot of rain.

Still no meaningful rainfall this month and this looks like continuing for the foreseeable future. Lets hope we see a cooling trend with frost and fog becoming a feature again.

[seaside 60]

1 hour ago, Blessed Weather said:

I wish my memory was better! When I wrote my post I had a nagging feeling that we did indeed have a couple of days of heavy rain that would have cancelled out the longer dry spells during November to give (on face value) an average rainfall month, but I couldn't remember when. Then it came to me - Storm Angus on the 20th November. Followed the next day by frequent bands of heavy showers moving through. Here's some posts (from pages 20 and 21 of the thread):

Nov 20th
We have had quite a bit of rain, not much wind though. (Captain Shortwave)
Nothing to note here (wind) only a lot of rain fell! (Surrey)
We did have over 40mm of rain. (katemart)

Nov 21st
It's absolutely throwing it down! (Ed Stone)
Drenching has started. (lassie23)
Absolutely tipping it down here. (PurpleButterfly)
Very dark with heavy rain here now. (80sWeather)
Very heavy rain has passed through here, some tropical intensity bursts in there! (Stainesbloke)

Now this is a question,

if the months mean is ave to above ave, but almost all the rain fell in 2 days, stats show the figures as above, but your feel is a dry month.

Shouldn't this be classed as a dry month from a feel prospective, when you look at stats on weather I feel they are very much ruined/skewed  by this type of problem and often it doesnt give the true happenings of the month.
I think this autumn and winter so far is one of the driest for a long time.

[stainesbloke]

Least favourite weather type today, dank, gloomy, dreary, etc. At least it's not windy.