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Scotland/Alba Regional Weather Discussion

A.J

By A.J
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Hairy Celt Maestro

Hairy Celt

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted
46 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

If the ECM turns out to be right then we all might be on for something... 

ECM1-168.GIF?07-0

If I've learned anything then that kink in the flow over the UK could bring snow if the upper temps play ball. 

Why even bother looking at charts a week away?  Nothing interesting more than 4 days away on the charts happens so you might just as well look at random childrens' drawing from the last 100 years (I have a stack in my attic).

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hairy Celt said:

Why even bother looking at charts a week away?  Nothing interesting more than 4 days away on the charts happens so you might just as well look at random childrens' drawing from the last 100 years (I have a stack in my attic).

I've always liked fantasy novels, films etc so looking at weather models is just an extension of that. :closedeyes:

Edited by Ravelin
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Hairy Celt Maestro

Hairy Celt

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted
1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

I've always liked fantasy novels, films etc so looking at weather models is just an extension of that. :closedeyes:

Yes I was being unnecessarily negative. I look at the long distance fantasy charts too.

Young HC has just been out for a moonlit run - 'ideal conditions' he says :wallbash:

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asjmcguire Rising Star

asjmcguire

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Snow
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
Posted
3 hours ago, Hairy Celt said:

Why even bother looking at charts a week away?  Nothing interesting more than 4 days away on the charts happens so you might just as well look at random childrens' drawing from the last 100 years (I have a stack in my attic).

Can we.... um.... see them?

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Hairy Celt Maestro

Hairy Celt

Posted
  • Location: NH7256
  • Weather Preferences: where's my vote?
  • Location: NH7256
Posted
32 minutes ago, asjmcguire said:

Can we.... um.... see them?

No, it's family archive stuff so doesn't get displayed publically.  But I don't think that detracts from my point, which I have since kind of softened anyway.

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skifreak Accomplished

skifreak

Posted
  • Location: Highland Scotland
  • Location: Highland Scotland
Posted

This morning I left Inverness not long after 6am and headed down the A82, now it was 6ºc on the car thermometer in Inverness, it bounced around between 5 and 7ºc before the road turns into Drumnadrochit. Now often the temperature drops a degree or two there when there's not much wind at this time of year, but it was still showing 6 on the car around the 40mph zone on the Urquhart Castle side of the village. Going round one of the corners coming out of the village, I suddenly couldn't see!!  

I hadn't entered fog, because I had seen moments before that it was clear, I quickly realised it wasn't my eyes because I could see clearly inside the car. I banged the demister to max, then instinctively hit the windscreen wipers, and it cleared - briefly! Just then the temperature alarm on the car which goes off at 4ºc beeped, I look at the display and it was -1ºc !! The temperature change was so abrupt the outside of the windscreen instantly fogged over - it spread across like the ice on windows in the Day after Tomorrow! I can honestly say, I have never ever seen that happen before while driving. 

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edo Accomplished

edo

Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
Posted
7 hours ago, over_the_rainbow said:

Hmm so the next wintery spell is looking towards later next week? coming from the NW? So that will be good for those north and to the west and along the central belt I think. Not really good for us here, in a imby perspective is it @edo?  Though still time for things to change a bit in that timescale im guessing. The usual upgrades and downgrades and some toys flying aboot in MT nearer the time no doubt :-P

It can be good for us....if the NW tilt is enough the hills don't steal it all like they do in northerlys..... the way things are shaping up we may have a shot not necessarily on the Thursday but as the cold looks potentially prolonged have to think we muse see some snow again sometime....my 3 yrs old boy has never seen snow and my 4 yrs old girl can't remember that she did 

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edo Accomplished

edo

Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
Posted
1 hour ago, Hairy Celt said:

No, it's family archive stuff so doesn't get displayed publically.  But I don't think that detracts from my point, which I have since kind of softened anyway.

I think your needing some snow HC....wonderful as my Xmas has been after 16 days with the 4 kids 24/7  I'm pining for work even more than snow :nea:

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted
4 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

For some reason I can't get the +120 FAX chart to save or copy, but it shows a wrapped up occlusion moving down from the north.

Yeah I saw that last night. As you say, on paper it looks good, in reality it could be marginal stuff. Well just gave to wait and see but at least for once this winter there's some interest in the potential snow department. 

This morning, although all 3 main models stay with the cold theme sometime Thu to Sun, there are some major differences between them starting around at t144/Sat. 

The ECM shows a ridge building to our W/NW whereas the GFS doesn't. 

ECH1-168.GIF?08-12 gfsnh-0-168.png

By day 10 the ECM has us in an Easterly of sorts but the GFS is full on SW flow. 

ECH1-240.GIF?08-12 gfsnh-0-240.png

One of them is going to be badly wrong, the GFS hopefully. 

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edo Accomplished

edo

Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
Posted

Here you go although the word marginal never good in recent times

20170107.2211.PPVO89.png

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Hawesy Veteran

Hawesy

Posted
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
  • Location: Home: Glenrothes, Fife Work: St Andrews, Fife
Posted

Nice to see the return of some sunshine after fog lingered all day yesterday.

The usual down to earth, sensible posts on this thread about prospects for later in the week. The devil will be in the detail but we can worry about that nearer the time, as Ravelin says at least we have snow potential at a reasonable timescale. Good to see the ECM on board.

You'd think after a six year wait I would bite your hand off for snow but actually next weekend isn't that convenient for me as I'm planning a walk with a mate ahead of tackling the West Highland Way in late April. Not sure I could cope with snowy conditions! :D

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Ross B Accomplished

Ross B

Posted
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
  • Location: East Renfrewshire 180m asl
Posted

Strathclyde met office text forecast sounding good to me at this range...

 

Outlook for Tuesday to Thursday:

Showers on Tuesday, strong winds at times. Turning much colder during Wednesday and Thursday. Very windy with frequent wintry showers, significant snowfall in places and drifting over higher ground.

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mistyqueen Experienced

mistyqueen

Posted
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, wild! wild! wild! Frost, a wee bit o' sun....
  • Location: Isle of Skye, 14m/49ft above sea level
Posted

Good morning from the Mega Dreichness that is Skye! Fling in some murk and you have an idea of just how drab these past days have been and will be for the next couple of days anyway. Currently 10.6c but there is a teeny touch of blue in the sky there!

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mardatha Accomplished

mardatha

Posted
  • Location: near Jedburgh
  • Weather Preferences: well it depends.. just not haar!
  • Location: near Jedburgh
Posted

Bright sun and 8c here but I want Strathclyde's forecast ..

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Ravelin Maestro

Ravelin

Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
Posted

Stay away from the Model Output Thread. The GFS 6z is slightly worse than the 0z so the usual suspects have kicked up a frenzy of despondency. 

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edo Accomplished

edo

Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
Posted

Wash yer mouth out @Hawesy there would potentially be 51 other snowless weekends available for you to have had yer walk :diablo:

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edo Accomplished

edo

Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
Posted (edited)

I know these charts are far from reliable but I agree with CMD that there is good potential for showers being blown quite far inland...I have seen it quite a few times....I will be keeping a close eye on wind direction and of course could then be first radar watch for a long time 

 

Screenshot_20170108-123226.png

168-780UK.gif

Edited by edo
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asjmcguire Rising Star

asjmcguire

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Snow
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
Posted (edited)

Nooooooo not radar watching - I swear if I have to sit radar watching there will be strong words!

Anytime I have to watch the radar - snow either miraculously turns to rain just as it's reaching me (despite all the forecasts being for snow) or - it approaches me and either changes direction or goes around me and out into the sea.

I expect @CatchMyDrift may have had the severe displeasure of observing this happening in the past!

Edited by asjmcguire
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SW Saltire Accomplished

SW Saltire

Posted
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold in winter and dry and very warm in summer
  • Location: Dumfries, South West Scotland.
Posted (edited)

I'm hopeful re Thursday with snow forecast but i'll a little bit too inland to be safe. 

Everything crossed for some snowy scenes and for the cold to be prolonged ie ECM as opposed to GFS's evolution but maybe that's wishful thinking.

Meant to be driving up the road on Saturday, M74 could be messy

You wouldn't know snow was forecast for soon, feels like spring today. Currently 9.4c after a high of 10.1c. No wind, v cloudy

Edited by SW Saltire
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asjmcguire Rising Star

asjmcguire

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Snow
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
Posted

Well - in general - we do best from snow from the NE and E.

N is marginal (usually on the wrong side) and NW is snow? there is snow somewhere in Scotland? Really? but it's all blue skies and sunshine here......

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asjmcguire Rising Star

asjmcguire

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Snow
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
Posted
2 minutes ago, CatchMyDrift said:

Blue skies? :) 

IMG_1687.JPG

No we only get the blue skies when there is snow everywhere else being delivered from the NW.....

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asjmcguire Rising Star

asjmcguire

Posted
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
  • Weather Preferences: Lightning, Snow
  • Location: Scottish Borders (SE) 150m/492ft
Posted

Light entertainment...... can't stop laughing.

 

Netweather Extra.png

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