Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[JoeShmoe]

1 hour ago, ManiaMuse said:

Lighter evening are actually only about 10 days away. Darkest evening is about the 13th or so. Although it is painfully slow before it becomes noticeable.

Think some people in the model thread need to take a break from their computers and get out and enjoy the dry weather. Lovely blue sky day today. Been for a walk, got the washing out, done some tinkering on my bikes out in the garden.

We've been lucky with a really dry and benign Autum, only one particularly wet spell of note and that only lasted 2-3 days. It's not going to last forever and storms are inevitable at some point over the next few months on our mild and wet island so make the most of it while things are nowhere near as miserable as December 2015!

If you want snow go and move or book a holiday to Scandinavia/Canada/Northeast USA/Eastern Europe etc.

This x 1000

Just have this impression every winter of the same 20-30 people watching every frame of every run every winter - would drive you nuts (and be lovely to ever get near having the time to be able to do it)

[mountain shadow]

Heavy snow right now on Sky channel 407 in Green Bay for anyone interested.

[The Enforcer]

6 hours ago, JoeShmoe said:

This x 1000

Just have this impression every winter of the same 20-30 people watching every frame of every run every winter - would drive you nuts (and be lovely to ever get near having the time to be able to do it)

Ah yes the good old MAERS (Micro Analyse Every Run Syndrome) accompanied by lashings of consternation and uproar when the next run turns out different at 7+ days.

Edited December 4, 2016 by The Enforcer

[I remember Atlantic 252]

no18 on GEFS wins most stupid unrealistic chart, no10 probably most realistic at 384

 

[jvenge]

9 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

no18 on GEFS wins most stupid unrealistic chart, no10 probably most realistic at 384

 

Not entirely on its own though :-) At least you have a few others also showing something similar.

 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

I wonder why GFS can pretty much nail the milder weather 10 days out but colder weather it can't

The below charts are for this Friday

29th

Today

Because the GFS is a mild ramper and when it see COLD it always goes into denial dragging its feet.

[Hurricane Buckley]

Looking better this morning, hopefully sign of what's to come.

[Rocheydub]

Model fatigue on December 5th. I'm taking a break for a couple of days!

[mountain shadow]

I think the despondency in this thread is because we haven't seen a cold blocked GFS run for some time. Hopefully the 6z Op running out now can show us one from the colder side of the ensembles and give an indication that the longer term blocking signals are finally being picked up.

[Frosty.]

19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hope so frosty, im still completely underwhelmed, frost and fog sounds grand...

 

Short term pain for sure but nothing like as awful as last Dec and hopes are rising for a colder 2nd half of month from the ensembles

I think I better stop quoting other people, it leads to veering off topic.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Frosty.

[mountain shadow]

I think those who betted on a white Christmas are on a losing bet. Met office predicting settled weather and snow unlikely. Looks like we're looking to the New Year now for the white stuff.

[carinthian]

(Euro slug right on top of my head for the next 15 days ( Austria ) Wow cannot wait. Feel depressed looking at that chart. No winter wonderland again for the Christmas Markets apart from a bit of frost, probably cold enough  to save the Chocolate Santas from dripping, unlike last run up to Christmas. Worried again about lack of snow for our village . Looks like the 3 year snow barren continues across much of Southern Britain ( at least you have seen more frost s so far this season ) probabaly more than the last 2 winters combined . It makes me sad. I think light relief in the pub beckons later on. Enjoy your last day of frost for a wee while !

 C

Edited December 5, 2016 by carinthian

[Frosty.]

45 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I think those who betted on a white Christmas are on a losing bet. Met office predicting settled weather and snow unlikely. Looks like we're looking to the New Year now for the white stuff.

it could be white with frost

[northwestsnow]

28 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

it could be white with frost

Sorry state of affairs though karl, if thats the very best we can hope for, and i really do think thats the best we can hope for, another snowless winter month? I wouldnt bet against it...

[northwestsnow]

And the latest meto mrf is not great, reads to me like wet and mild followed by a uk high and then the high slipping back into europe to allow the Atlantic in.

Dreadful dreadful stuff...

[jvenge]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

And the latest meto mrf is not great, reads to me like wet and mild followed by a uk high and then the high slipping back into europe to allow the Atlantic in.

Dreadful dreadful stuff...

There is a little bit of hope in the ensembles, but nothing showing the deep cold. I don't think seasonable average is unachievable, though. I think you will have a better picture the coming weekend about the prospects for Christmas.

Edited December 5, 2016 by jvenge

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, jvenge said:

There is a little bit of hope in the ensembles, but nothing showing the deep cold. I don't think seasonable average is unachievable, though. I think you will have a better picture the coming weekend about the prospects for Christmas.

Theres always hope until we get to march, but lets call a spade a spade, if you want snow anytime soon, your going to be disappointed...

[jvenge]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Theres always hope until we get to march, but lets call a spade a spade, if you want snow anytime soon, your going to be disappointed...

Well, not me, I had it during the weekend ;-)

You are fairly high up and in the north west. You should have a good shout with seasonal norms, I would have thought?

Now, it is looking fairly dry, so even if you got the cold, which is a fairly big if, the chances of it aligning well with moisture doesn't look too promising, I must admit. It has also been very dry here the past month.

[Banbury]

I'm starting to realise that blocking in favour of wintry conditions is looking less likely ( for December ) , I think the best we are going to see is a block over us with frosty / foggy conditions keeping temps down .

I'm now looking at January I'm afraid

 

EDIT

Just looked in the Media thread on TWO and there is talk of unsettled conditions 'possibly' returning in the NY , so that rules a block out as well

 

Of course all miles off and things can change very quickly , but at the moment we are waiting for the bus that never comes...................it seems

Edited December 5, 2016 by Banbury

[Paul_1978]

5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

 

Just looked in the Media thread on TWO and there is talk of unsettled conditions 'possibly' returning in the NY , so that rules a block out as well

 

I'd say that means it "possibly" rules out a block ;-)

On the other hand, if there is a block in place and low pressure systems start to move in across the south, then we all know what that means....... Easterly. So if there is indeed a block in place, it would be nice to see the jet continuing to dig south and into the Med. As long as we keep heights to the north.....

Let's get this milder spell out of the way, then get HP back on the scene and see where we go from there - it could be good, it could be indifferent, who knows, but it will sure be interesting to see it unfold.

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

And the latest meto mrf is not great, reads to me like wet and mild followed by a uk high and then the high slipping back into europe to allow the Atlantic in.

Dreadful dreadful stuff...

Yes. Although if it is does turn unsettled again into the year after a frosty spell,  a lucky few might see some brief snowfall as the mild comes back in.

[Ravelin]

After an enforced semi-absence from model watching over the weekend I'm not sure I can be bothered trying muster the enthusiasm for a good moan at the models. Even this morning's -7.5C bright and frosty start to the day was somewhat ruined by the thought of Wednesdays' forecast cloudy 12C.

[karlos1983]

POTENTIAL  I hate that word now. I've just asked a question to someone at work and the answer was  potentially yes!  They won't be using that word again safe to say. 

[Ali1977]

With the latest METO update, I think the prospects of anything white falling from the Sky in the next few weeks isn't great, the sliver of hope that GLOSEA was still showing a blocked 2nd half of Dec is waning with their update but lets see what this weeks updates say first as they may revert back.  Jan or Feb though, who knows maybe we will get all our winter in the last 2/3rds.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Ali1977

[offerman]

December has been ruled out for snow unfortunately.

There will be a lot of dry weather about with cloud at times but also some decent sunny days and clear night allowing for fog and frost to develop at times. There will be the odd interlude of wet weather but high pressure looks to be the predominant driving force for the majority of the month. The position of the high is not favourable for snow but at times long fetch mild SW winds.

 

Lets see if January and February can herald a change for snow lovers....