Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[SteveB]

14 minutes ago, Abyss said:

But only last week most if not all thought it would be a bumper December. Look how that turned out thus far. People need to get a grip its the 7th of December. All the predictions have been hogwash

The problem is, we have been here before - in fact many times before, all the signs look promising for a cold blocked Winter, and was we approach Winter & enter Winter those promising signs start diminishing & the almost reverse starts happening i.e 15c-16c in early December rather than the front loaded blocked & cold that was forecast.

Funny enough, I actually don't mind the weather we are having today, the sun has been shining, little or no wind & it's not raining.

If we can't get cold & snow, I'll settle for this over wind & rain.

 

 

Edited December 7, 2016 by SteveB

[Ben Lewis]

28 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

So, the Murrster is pretty much writing off snow down South until at least mid January and a recent post in the Strat thread reckons no favourable blocking until February. In other words, a normal Winter looks likely.

I have to agree with this assessment and I reckon the only chance of snow is from a Northerly toppler.

Wasn't he going for a cold (ish) December (Something along those lines - Not mild anyway) as I think he was doing some 2/3 weeks ago over on the MOD thread. From memory I recall his posts being very optimistic

Look how quickly that changed, he may well be right but things still have time to switch to save the last week of December.

Although I'm with you MS and think another bog standard wet, mild winter is on the cards whilst the USA get buried in feet of snow and brutal cold. Imagine what it must be like living in Chicago say.. proper seasons. Hot summers and Snowy winters - If only!!

 

[Bristawl Si]

13 minutes ago, SteveB said:

The problem is, we have been here before - in fact many times before, all the signs look promising for a cold blocked Winter, and was we approach Winter & enter Winter those promising signs start diminishing & the almost reverse starts happening i.e 15c-16c in early December rather than the front loaded blocked & cold that was forecast.

Funny enough, I actually don't mind the weather we are having today, the sun has been shining, little or no wind & it's not raining.

If we can't get cold & snow, I'll settle for this over wind & rain.

 

 

Steve  - have a ponder over this.

Who actually says "the signs are promising"? Why do people believe claims that we see most years on NW? Just wondering really - how can we weather mortals prove that supposedly 'superior' people knowledge-wise are telling the truth?

It aint easy to prove internet forum contributors are suitably knowledgeable enough on any subject.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Bristle boy

[snow freak]

oh well it's beginning to look like this winter will be the same as most other UK winters, even though the initial thought was a bit more optimistic.  Can't say I'm ever surprised as most winters all we get is mild muck.  Nothing changes.

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, snow freak said:

oh well it's beginning to look like this winter will be the same as most other UK winters, even though the initial thought was a bit more optimistic.  Can't say I'm ever surprised as most winters all we get is mild muck.  Nothing changes.

Thing is that even in cr@p years from my childhood i still saw snow laying or falling a couple of times a year.

[snow freak]

• true Bristle boy.  you could usually guarantee a few days of lying snow every year in the midlands 30 years or so ago but now we're lucky if we get even 1 or 2 days a year apart from exceptional years like 2010 and even that wasn't that spectacular to be honest.

[cheeky_monkey]

9 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Wasn't he going for a cold (ish) December (Something along those lines - Not mild anyway) as I think he was doing some 2/3 weeks ago over on the MOD thread. From memory I recall his posts being very optimistic

Look how quickly that changed, he may well be right but things still have time to switch to save the last week of December.

Although I'm with you MS and think another bog standard wet, mild winter is on the cards whilst the USA get buried in feet of snow and brutal cold. Imagine what it must be like living in Chicago say.. proper seasons. Hot summers and Snowy winters - If only!!

 

Higher chance of getting murdered though..anyway too hot in the summer..plus you soon get fed up of cold and snow and the back breaking shovelling

[stainesbloke]

5 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Wasn't he going for a cold (ish) December (Something along those lines - Not mild anyway) as I think he was doing some 2/3 weeks ago over on the MOD thread. From memory I recall his posts being very optimistic

Look how quickly that changed, he may well be right but things still have time to switch to save the last week of December.

Although I'm with you MS and think another bog standard wet, mild winter is on the cards whilst the USA get buried in feet of snow and brutal cold. Imagine what it must be like living in Chicago say.. proper seasons. Hot summers and Snowy winters - If only!!

 

Having spent many a winters day in Chicago and places with similar climates with my job, I can honestly say that -20C and a 30mph wind are just hideous and no fun at all. Saying that, neither are 12C and long weeks of gloom, wind and rain. I often wish we had a slightly more continental climate here (especially in summer) but it is what it is. Worth remembering that widespread December snow and severe cold is rare here, especially in the S. Much more likely in February (but even then not guaranteed) so writing off a winter in the first week of December is a bit daft really. 

[cheese]

4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Having spent many a winters day in Chicago and places with similar climates with my job, I can honestly say that -20C and a 30mph wind are just hideous and no fun at all. Saying that, neither are 12C and long weeks of gloom, wind and rain. I often wish we had a slightly more continental climate here (especially in summer) but it is what it is. Worth remembering that widespread December snow and severe cold is rare here, especially in the S. Much more likely in February (but even then not guaranteed) so writing off a winter in the first week of December is a bit daft really. 

Chicago isn't very cold or snowy in winter either. Yeah, they can get very cold on occasion, and they can get some impressive blizzards, but they are very much the exception to the rule. They get 29cm of snow in January on average, which in all  honesty isn't that much, and when you consider that Chicago is very unstable in winter, that snow won't last for very long. Chicago's record high in December is 22C, in February it's 24C. Even in January it's 19C which is higher than anywhere in the UK.

 If you want lots of snow, you'd be better off going to somewhere like Rochester or Buffalo. Chicago is on the wrong side of the lake.

Edited December 7, 2016 by cheese

[stainesbloke]

Just now, cheese said:

Chicago isn't that cold in winter either.

Not consistently but when it gets cold it gets really cold! I've been there when a cold front has gone through and it has been -20C in daylight. No wonder so many people there end up moving to places like Phoenix!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, cheese said:

15C with sunshine here - I'd be fine with this for the rest of winter. Just as long as it doesn't rain.

yes agree, beats rain and 6° any day!

[Ben Lewis]

36 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Having spent many a winters day in Chicago and places with similar climates with my job, I can honestly say that -20C and a 30mph wind are just hideous and no fun at all. Saying that, neither are 12C and long weeks of gloom, wind and rain. I often wish we had a slightly more continental climate here (especially in summer) but it is what it is. Worth remembering that widespread December snow and severe cold is rare here, especially in the S. Much more likely in February (but even then not guaranteed) so writing off a winter in the first week of December is a bit daft really. 

I had a 10 day city break in Chicago in February a few years back - Loved every minute. 2 blizzard days and temps down to -18c

I agree writing off winter in December can seem pretty daft, as is getting excited/building hopes on a computer generated prediction of cold and snow. I think the reason its more appropriate to write off winter as its the UK default winter pattern - Mild and wet - Much more likely to be correct.

With the way the past winters have gone I would feel very comfortable writing off winter and don't see that as daft at all. 

Edited December 7, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[stainesbloke]

32 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

I had a 10 day city break in Chicago in February a few years back - Loved every minute. 2 blizzard days and temps down to -18c

I agree writing off winter in December can seem pretty daft, as is getting excited/building hopes on a computer generated prediction of cold and snow. I think the reason its more appropriate to write off winter as its the UK default winter pattern - Mild and wet - Much more likely to be correct.

With the way the past winters have gone I would feel very comfortable writing off winter and don't see that as daft at all. 

You have a point but recent extremely mild and overly wet winters are not the UK 'norm' either. Periods of such weather are normal in every winter, but not lasting entire winters as has been the case. We had some cracking cold and snows in the 80's, for example. But those spells generally only lasted a week or two and the rest of the winter was the usual mixed offering. Maybe it's just best in the UK to always expect the worst then be pleasantly surprised?

[cheese]

58 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

yes agree, beats rain and 6° any day!

Rain haters unite! lol

[Ben Lewis]

5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

You have a point but recent extremely mild and overly wet winters are not the UK 'norm' either. Periods of such weather are normal in every winter, but not lasting entire winters as has been the case. We had some cracking cold and snows in the 80's, for example. But those spells generally only lasted a week or two and the rest of the winter was the usual mixed offering. Maybe it's just best in the UK to always expect the worst then be pleasantly surprised?

Completely agree. Better just to expect the worst and be happy with what ever snow and cold does arrive.

[cheese]

Here's an example of Chicago in January:

December 2015:

Of course, they can get this as well:

Such is the nature of winter in the US - very variable, almost no consistency. You get places in Florida that have record lows of -18C despite having winter highs of 17-18C.

Edited December 7, 2016 by cheese

[Ben Lewis]

4 minutes ago, cheese said:

Here's an example of Chicago in January:

Even so, that's more cold days and snow days in 1 month then i've experienced in 3 winters... Lol

Yes the city can get up to balmy double figures in mid winter but they sure can make up for it a week later with heavy snow and freezing cold days.

What do we get after balmy double figures - oh yeah... Another week of double figures - LOL

[cheese]

2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Even so, that's more cold days and snow days in 1 month then i've experienced in 3 winters... Lol

Yes the city can get up to balmy double figures in mid winter but they sure can make up for it a week later with heavy snow and freezing cold days.

What do we get after balmy double figures - oh yeah... Another week of double figures - LOL

Of course - the point I'm making is that there are far better places in the world if you want cold, snowy winters. There are places in the US that get big blizzards and feet of snow every winter. Chicago isn't one of those places though.

And stainesbloke is right - a lot of people from places like Chicago move to the 'sunbelt' states to escape the cold winters. So a case of be careful what you wish for? From the perspective of most people enduring temps of -10C and blowing snow, we are the lucky ones.

Edited December 7, 2016 by cheese

[Ben Lewis]

3 minutes ago, cheese said:

Of course - the point I'm making is that there are far better places in the world if you want cold, snowy winters. There are places in the US that get big blizzards and feet of snow every winter. Chicago isn't one of those places though.

And stainesbloke is right - a lot of people from places like Chicago move to the 'sunbelt' states to escape the cold winters. So a case of be careful what you wish for? From the perspective of most people enduring temps of -10C and blowing snow, we are the lucky ones.

I probably just chose the city as I have visited on holiday and worked there a number of times, so I am familiar with it and it had a good mixture of snow and normal weather (UK style)

I know there are better places for snow. I lived in Montreal for 18 months - Makes out 1962/63 and 1974 winters look pathetic. 

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

I probably just chose the city as I have visited on holiday and worked there a number of times, so I am familiar with it and it had a good mixture of snow and normal weather (UK style)

I know there are better places for snow. I lived in Montreal for 18 months - Makes out 1962/63 and 1974 winters look pathetic. 

Ooh Montreal....that takes cold to a new level! Was there a couple of years ago, landed in a blizzard and -30C. Airport working fine and no dramas. 

[Seasonality]

5 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Ooh Montreal....that takes cold to a new level! Was there a couple of years ago, landed in a blizzard and -30C. Airport working fine and no dramas. 

How about insane cold like Yakutsk? City of almost 200,000 people and average daily high temperature of -35°C in January.

Edited December 7, 2016 by Seasonality

[Ben Lewis]

3 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Ooh Montreal....that takes cold to a new level! Was there a couple of years ago, landed in a blizzard and -30C. Airport working fine and no dramas. 

I know, when I was there I experienced countless snowstorms and snow depth you can only dream of and yet the whole city just carried on like it was snow grains falling from the sky totally oblivious and no one taking any notice. Was incredible to be part of it.

 

[knocker]

1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

I know, when I was there I experienced countless snowstorms and snow depth you can only dream of and yet the whole city just carried on like it was snow grains falling from the sky totally oblivious and no one taking any notice. Was incredible to be part of it.

 

Quebec didn't in 1998.

[beefy201]

Said it for sometime now !! some people have been banging on about models showing nothing but cold for the last couple of weeks and how it could last for weeks and here we are today breaking daytime max in some pars of uk. I am afraid its gong to be a long wet and windy winter .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, beefy201 said:

Said it for sometime now !! some people have been banging on about models showing nothing but cold for the last couple of weeks and how it could last for weeks and here we are today breaking daytime max in some pars of uk. I am afraid its gong to be a long wet and windy winter .

I never believe FI cold, all this about mogreps cold 15 days on crap, ECMWF ens cold in 15 days, reality is the Atlantic dominates