Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Don]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I fancy some spring now. Another let down of a winter with extreme disappointment tempered somewhat by the early December snowfall. 

Signs that the strat will crack mid Feb.. Odds on a cold start to spring must be shortening. On balance I wouldn't be shocked on a cold spring into cool, wet early summer transition. 

Agreed reference another let down of a winter.  However, I would not say no to a cold spring, even though any snow would likely be short lived.  March and April 2008 produced more wintry weather than all of winter 2007/08.  I would not mind a repeat, it's better than nothing!

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Agreed reference another let down of a winter.  However, I would not say no to a cold spring, even though any snow would likely be short lived.  March and April 2008 produced more wintry weather than all of winter 2007/08.  I would not mind a repeat, it's better than nothing!

Indeed, and it's a possibility given that we're close to late 2000s in terms of sunspot number. 

I wonder if the summer will be reminiscent? 

[igloo]

Not sure when the last NAO went negative i would hazard a guess and say march 2013 that would be five years and still no signs of it changing to negative i would also note that our first sub 910mb low is bound to arrive before the NAO ever gets to negative again as the president keeps saying what global warming ?

[Don]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed, and it's a possibility given that we're close to late 2000s in terms of sunspot number. 

I wonder if the summer will be reminiscent? 

If it follows the trend of summers ending in '8' then very likely!

[northwestsnow]

Looks lke UKMO might have been sniffing out the correct evolution with the azores high ridging over the top of the jet initially - EC has followed to some extent.

Really could do with the jet digging south at 168 on ukmo allowing the scandy heights to become cut off, 120-144 crucial- still need upgrades but better 00z runs (gfs aside)

GFS is useless for cold but i suspect it might be wrong here.

 

[knocker]

The ecm det anomaly this morning is not a bad fit with last night's NOAA and the other anomalies. With the centre of the high cell way to the south west, how much influence it will have ridging north east over the UK in the battle with the east bound energy is really what the det. runs have to resolve IMHO.

[Matthew.]

10 hours ago, snow mad said:

Winter is over! There I said it. Cannot believe what a crappy set of winters the last five including this one have been. Ha ho onto next winter with more hope and hopefully a decent spring/summer in the meantime.

Much better for the north this year. I’m suspecting next winter will be mild for us all but then some cold winters will appear between 2020-2025

[knocker]

Fears are growing that the recent outbreak of cognitive dissonance is reaching epidemic proportions. Quality time at a retreat is to be encouraged.

[cheese]

14 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Each to their own obviously, but its not as if March is particularly close to Summer and in September say it's common for many to hope for a final spell of Summery warmth and sunshine before it generally becomes too cool for such so I don't see why there should be a sudden rush for signs of the other major season to start showing its hand 6 months later. Besides I'd rather have a cold snowy March followed by a warm and sunny Summer than a pleasant and sunny March followed by a drab and overcast Summer. Not that one should lead to the other but you take my point that even if March is pleasant it hardly has any bearing on when it should matter, i.e. in Jun/Jul/and Aug so there's no need to feel as if warm weather should start showing up too soon and with March been historically full of potential for harsh wintry weather, for those that enjoy such I just want them to realise that though in their minds Winter ends on the 28th/29th Feb, nature itself doesn't acknowledge that date and the potential in reality actually exists,at least a month if more after that date so in other words the annual window for when deep snow cover and sub zero temperatures is physically possible won't be over for quite a while yet.

What I want in March has nothing to do with summer though. Summer will do what it wants regardless of March. I'd just prefer a sunny and warm March to a cold and snowy one, and this winter is proving to be a tease, promising much but never delivering.

Edited January 30, 2018 by cheese

[cheese]

12 hours ago, Don said:

If it follows the trend of summers ending in '8' then very likely!

Hopefully not. 2007 was horrendous precisely because we had a terrible mild/wet winter followed by a wet/cool summer. It's the worst of both worlds!

Far too early to be speculating about most of spring, let alone summer. Most years ending in 8 do have bad summers though - 08, 98, 88, 78.. hopefully 18 breaks that trend!

Edited January 30, 2018 by cheese

[Tn9]

This has been one of the warmest years in U.S. history. For January through November, this year’s average U.S. temperature was the third warmest in records going back to 1895. The only warmer years (for Jan.-Nov.) were 2012 and 2016, according to NOAA. As of Dec. 24, NOAA reported more than 33,000 daily record highs this year, but only about 9000 daily record lows................ Climate change doesn’t get rid of weather.We can still expect cold waves and heat waves, even as greenhouse gases make our overall climate warmer over time. And since global warming doesn’t change the fact that Earth is tilted on its axis, winter still happens.......this could be why we cannot get blocking in the right places because if the planet or say atmosphere tries  to self level then warm incursions in to the artic is what it doesn't need...lots of energy into the jet because of temperature departure is a way to self preserve its self even if it means mid latitudes warming...over all we are warming up.. If we or anything else is doing it doesn't really matter to the responce of the atmosphere.. These quotes are on wunderground.. Blogs.. Category 6...they make good reading..

[EML Network]

15 hours ago, cheese said:

I can't speak for everyone, and as much as I love snow, I'm just ready for winter to be over. I'm not getting dragged into any phantom easterly drama; it's just not worth it. March can certainly deliver in the snow and cold department but I would much rather have the sun shining and the flowers blooming tbh.

I have to admit that I agree, I'm fast loosing my interest in Winters all together tbh.

This Winter has without a shadow of a doubt been the most irritating, wet, cold, windy, damp, grey awful Winter I think I can ever remember.

I really don't think that IMBY i'll ever see snow falling and settling ever again (5 years now since i've seen any snow) and I really do enjoy the sun and the warmth of summer. 

So I'm with you, let's just scrap Winter, get it out of the way with and look forward to the summer.

This winter really has killed my love affair with Winter off....

 

[Mapantz]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its not - its Russian. I don't class Russia as Europe.

The ICON is a DWD model, feb - German Met Office.

[cheeky_monkey]

Fascinating Chinook in Calgary yesterday Downtown hit +8c whilst at the same time Chestermere an eastern suburb remained at -12c

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

There’s constant chinooks here South of the M4 ?

Edited January 30, 2018 by prolongedSnowLover

[Relativistic]

I'll be hoping for cold and snow well into the Spring. Been treated recently with falling snow in the final week of April in both 2016 and 2017. In an ideal world I'd have a cold and snowy March, a cold April with (at the very least) falling snow, and then an exceptionally cool May with plenty by way of frosts and cold winds. One can dream.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

I'll be hoping for cold and snow well into the Spring. Been treated recently with falling snow in the final week of April in both 2016 and 2017. In an ideal world I'd have a cold and snowy March, a cold April with (at the very least) falling snow, and then an exceptionally cool May with plenty by way of frosts and cold winds. One can dream.

Certainly more likely, I'm more confident of snow Mar/Apr, than Dec-Feb, when the Atlantic rules

[reef]

The warm weather can wait in my opinion, as we've had no lying snow since 30th November (and even that wasn't measurable) and just two frosts since mid-December. I'd like to see something before its too late this year. Not to mention Spring 2017 was the warmest on record and we hit 20.8C as recently as 16th October!

I don't begrudge anyone warmer weather but we did the exact same sequence last year (After a mild winter, March, May and June were all the warmest on record here) and I fancy a change!

It'd be nice to get a variable spring followed by a summer with the heat in the second half rather than another cack August.

[knocker]

Wedges are on the menu tonight with a Scandinavian dip.

[SLEETY]

How flipping hard is it to get a proper Easterly in to the uk.

we are looking so close but no cigar,if we do miss out yet again I’m definitely giving up on this pathetic,so far winter.

[knocker]

Not bad agreement between this evening's ecm det run and this morning's EPS anomaly

[Froze were the Days]

7 hours ago, EML Network said:

I have to admit that I agree, I'm fast loosing my interest in Winters all together tbh.

This Winter has without a shadow of a doubt been the most irritating, wet, cold, windy, damp, grey awful Winter I think I can ever remember.

I really don't think that IMBY i'll ever see snow falling and settling ever again (5 years now since i've seen any snow) and I really do enjoy the sun and the warmth of summer. 

So I'm with you, let's just scrap Winter, get it out of the way with and look forward to the summer.

This winter really has killed my love affair with Winter off....

 

2013/14 was far far worse than this one for continuous cloud, rain, wind and mildness...I've never been so happy for a winter to end it really was that bad!...it felt like it went on for months unabated. 

[Methuselah]

What will Arthur (Sidney's distant cousin) ask when he wakes up tomorrow, and ventures into the MAD thread?

Not a lot!

[Tracy Flick]

Just 3 days to wait for the prognostications of Punxsutawney Phil...  

 

 

[Matthew.]

Is an easterly coming? With Sydney burying his nuts I might take it more seriously this time