Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Evening thunder]

This should, at last, provide the first mostly clear/sunny day here since the last incursion of PM air from the west which by then will have been 11 days before. 

Perhaps some frost for the first time since then too (and wintry showers possible up north)

This, along with some actual weather and temperature variability, is (for me at least, and I imagine others too) why I prefer a return to Atlantic mobility over the stagnant dull damp Euroslug induced stuff we've had, not to have ones roof torn off..... 

A bit like I assume most people wishing for cold and snow (this includes me) don't want to be actually snowed in for weeks.. Though I may be wrong there lol.

On a similar note I will not be getting excited about Scuro blocking or a Russian high 'fighting back west' at T+384 that doesn't even show cold over us and would probably just lead to more mild cloudy southerlies/south-westerlies.

I'd prefer cold/snowy outbreaks for sure, or a crisp frosty high, but to me this is much better than weatherless grot and Euro high induced episodes like Dec15 (which helped make it so boring down here and so disruptive for the North West), I just hope we maintain decent PM air episodes without the Euro high getting too close this time.

[cheese]

The weather's been rather nice here lately - plenty of sunshine. Today's a little cloudier but not too bad either.

I think we got lucky though as I know a lot of places have had stubborn low cloud and fog.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

You don't have to travel that far to get snow

No you dont, just take a trip to Italy, Turin could be pretty snowy this week.

[Seasonality]

21 minutes ago, snowray said:

No you dont, just take a trip to Italy, Turin could be pretty snowy this week.

LOL at the Xmas jumper on your profile pic. Show us ya carrots!!!

[snowray]

41 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

LOL at the Xmas jumper on your profile pic. Show us ya carrots!!!

Ho Ho Ho......  So would it be just my Christmas carrots that you be after kind sir? 

               I'm still dreaming of a white christ........m.....a....     ...s

[knocker]

I notice that instinct is back in its rightful place as a very useful forecasting tool. Used correctly it is always a win, win scenario. Firstly you make a prognostication, well in advance, of future outcomes that is the very opposite of all the indicators and professional opinion and file it away. When, as usual the nonsense fails to materialize, it matters not because everyone else has completely forgotten what you said, even if by chance they had noticed it in the first place. And if by some miracle the unthinkable happens and you turn out to be correct you can wheel it out in triumph, to much fanfare, as proof that instinct once again triumphs over the technology and your elevation to sit with the other forecasting 'Gods' on Mount Olympus is a foregone conclusion.

Edited December 18, 2016 by knocker

[Matthew.]

Agree with others saying its way to early to say winter and snow won't arrive. It's unushual we have 2months + of cold anyway apart from rare occasions. We could still have a special month of cold to look forward to yet- Jan/Feb. Even if this doesn't happen we will probably get wintry snap/spell(s) at some point. There's numerous examples in the past when one would have thought winter was over in December only for bitter cold to arrive soon after.

[cheese]

1 hour ago, snowray said:

No you dont, just take a trip to Italy, Turin could be pretty snowy this week.

Northern Italy is colder than most of low-land UK in winter. 

[Jonathan Bollen]

With nearly 33% of winter gone is it over yet. You never know what the person who created the weather can do. But hI will have a way to pan out our winter weather. 

[Hanny]

May there should be a seperate MOD thread "hunting for cold and snow" so that this can be used for those who think models are showing cold and snow with their view(s), so that the MOD thread can be used for the more serious posts on reliable Synoptics etc.

[Ben Lewis]

Christ the MOD thread is a bit of a freak show this evening. 

The usual members banging on about cold zonal and telling us where it will snow in 7 days time. That's when you know things are bad, talking about what mountain will see a snow shower from a flow that usually always get downgraded to lower uppers etc when the day arrives. 

So thats places with Decent elevation in Scotland and the NW! What they fail to realise is, most people don't live on a mountain and therefore cold zonal is usually a non event for people like me here in the SE. 

But whatever you do, DO NOT question them as incase you forgot.... it's suppose to be cold zonality in 7 days and we should all be over the moon that the Scottish ski resorts might see a flake... 

[ArHu3]

7 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Christ the MOD thread is a bit of a freak show this evening. 

The usual members banging on about cold zonal and telling us where it will snow in 7 days time. That's when you know things are bad, talking about what mountain will see a snow shower from a flow that usually always get downgraded to lower uppers etc when the day arrives. 

So thats places with Decent elevation in Scotland and the NW! What they fail to realise is, most people don't live on a mountain and therefore cold zonal is usually a non event for people like me here in the SE. 

But whatever you do, DO NOT question them as incase you forgot.... it's suppose to be cold zonality in 7 days and we should all be over the moon that the Scottish ski resorts might see a flake... 

Some people might actually get something out of cold zonality and defend its outcome here with fervor but in the end opninions matters nothing: the weather doesn't care about our opinions, it does what it does

[booferking]

34 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Christ the MOD thread is a bit of a freak show this evening. 

The usual members banging on about cold zonal and telling us where it will snow in 7 days time. That's when you know things are bad, talking about what mountain will see a snow shower from a flow that usually always get downgraded to lower uppers etc when the day arrives. 

So thats places with Decent elevation in Scotland and the NW! What they fail to realise is, most people don't live on a mountain and therefore cold zonal is usually a non event for people like me here in the SE. 

But whatever you do, DO NOT question them as incase you forgot.... it's suppose to be cold zonality in 7 days and we should all be over the moon that the Scottish ski resorts might see a flake... 

So whats your elevation call for the snow this coming week in the pm shots Wednesday-Sunday???

Edited December 18, 2016 by booferking

[Ben Lewis]

30 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Some people might actually get something out of cold zonality and defend its outcome here with fervor but in the end opninions matters nothing: the weather doesn't care about our opinions, it does what it does

You hit the Christmas cherry early this year?

The weather doesn't care about our opinions? Then why the hell are we all here? 

What a stupid thing to say 

[Ben Lewis]

28 minutes ago, booferking said:

So whats your elevation call for the snow this coming week in the pm shots Wednesday-Sunday???

I'm not sure, going on past experiences I'd say above 200m in Scotland and NI. 

History PM shots here in the SE deliver diddly squat apart from the odd occasions where a good -8 upper or above is evident with extremely lively showers. 

Hoped to be proved wrong and I wake up over Christmas and it's snowing here in Hertfordshire, but past Cold Zonality says 'NO'

Im afraid I can't get excited because a hill in Scotland might get snow in 7 days. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

24 minutes ago, booferking said:

So whats your elevation call for the snow this coming week in the pm shots Wednesday-Sunday???

You're in a good spot, can understand you liking cold zonal, don't blame you if you feel like ramping it in MOD

[Mapantz]

28 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Some people might actually get something out of cold zonality

Well, funnily enough, Christmas day 2013 brought some wet snow and hail for my location. I took a video of it when I got home at 8am after an all-nighter. 

[booferking]

16 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

I'm not sure, going on past experiences I'd say above 200m in Scotland and NI. 

History PM shots here in the SE deliver diddly squat apart from the odd occasions where a good -8 upper or above is evident with extremely lively showers. 

Hoped to be proved wrong and I wake up over Christmas and it's snowing here in Hertfordshire, but past Cold Zonality says 'NO'

Im afraid I can't get excited because a hill in Scotland might get snow in 7 days. 

I get snow in -4 uppers @850 from zonal weather it really is all about location i wish everyone could get snow for the big day but you know how hard it is in this country for all to see snow even in proper cold spells its a nightmare.

[Weather-history]

ECM 12z

[Tonyinhampshire]

5 hours ago, snowray said:

No you dont, just take a trip to Italy, Turin could be pretty snowy this week.

Even Spain. I recall travelling to Bilbao on Brittany Ferries from Portsmouth. We arrived in Spain but the cars couldnt get off the ramp due to heavy snow

[Tonyinhampshire]

4 hours ago, cheese said:

Northern Italy is colder than most of low-land UK in winter. 

and 2 thousand miles further south......

[cheese]

Just now, Tonyinhampshire said:

and 2 thousand miles further south......

Yup. Munich is also colder in winter than Berlin despite being nearly 400 miles further south. Such is life.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

my 'guess' on the zonality challenge is late Jan! we may get a few days higher pressure to end it, Jan 26th! before it resumes early Feb

[Seasonality]

3 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

Christ the MOD thread is a bit of a freak show this evening. 

The usual members banging on about cold zonal and telling us where it will snow in 7 days time. That's when you know things are bad, talking about what mountain will see a snow shower from a flow that usually always get downgraded to lower uppers etc when the day arrives. 

So thats places with Decent elevation in Scotland and the NW! What they fail to realise is, most people don't live on a mountain and therefore cold zonal is usually a non event for people like me here in the SE. 

But whatever you do, DO NOT question them as incase you forgot.... it's suppose to be cold zonality in 7 days and we should all be over the moon that the Scottish ski resorts might see a flake... 

You sound really worked up my friend. Don't let it get to you so much. The mod thread is indeed a weird place at times especially with the weird passive aggressive troll or two. Agreed it is a bad set up for you, but people do like discussimg weather all across the UK and even further afield.

[Seasonality]

9 minutes ago, cheese said:

Yup. Munich is also colder in winter than Berlin despite being nearly 400 miles further south. Such is life.

As is a good swathe of Turkey. Gets absolutely frigid there, check this out.

Edited December 18, 2016 by Seasonality