Model Output Discussions 12z 30/11/16

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

You mean the 2nd week of Dec? Not the first half of winter? 

No I meant front loaded as in Dec looks busted, mid loaded (Jan)and back loaded (Feb) tba

Edited December 3, 2016 by Frosty.

[Faronstream]

Right now it looks like 8th December 13.00pm next week will be the mildest day with around 5 to 6,5+ warmer than average for most parts of west europé, but seems to be short lived and colder the coming days

[MidnightSnow]

We just got to make sure we learn our lesson this time and not take anything in FI seriously. Better off asking a little kid to draw you a chart with a bunch of crayons. T168 at the very max.

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Frosty, I think that's a tad hasty! I mean the first half of winter is until mid January. We don't know with any confidence what will unfold come mid month. I'm a bit surprised by that comment 

I'm not writing off winter, just december, all I can see is another wild goose chase for a snow flake from deep Fi perturbations.

[law of averages]

2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Well I just posted a zonal hell horror poster, it lasted till around the 18th just 6 days before the hellish winter broke lose. Anyway just look at the Nov-Dec 62 charts, I am not saying we'll see a repeat but I would be willing to bet that many people would say winter was over when they would see the mid December 62 charts

Yes agreed arhu3...problem is 2day there's to many charts to analyse ( rinse, reapeat etc ) and to many look into f1?? instead of looking for tomorrow or 3days ahead, can't really look beyond that... I bet the epic winters, had forecasters saying similar and they only had charts for a particular day...NO COMPUTERS WHICH SHOWED 2 WEEKS AHEAD, I assume it was better not knowing what was to come...2morrow is just another weather day

[Singularity]

  

06 left and 12z right - see the adjustment west in the low by N. America (centre-left of images). This is progress toward the ECM solution, regardless of what the rest of the run gets up to.

Has to be said though, we need to improve on that ECM 00z to see more than a slim chance of below average temperatures returning this side of mid-month.

 

Update for +138:

  

Alright - we have a whole new ridge in the jet stream pattern as it reaches the N. Atlantic sector. The low over the far-NE America. is maturing as a separate feature to the one in the mid-Atlantic. Good signs - but GFS is still about a day quicker with the N. American storm than ECM, which is no doubt due to differences upstream regarding the phasing (or not) of two jet arms that Nick discussed earlier today.

Edited December 3, 2016 by Singularity

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not writing off winter, just december, all I can see is another wild goose chase for a snow flake from deep Fi perturbations.

So to be clear, you are completely writing off winter weather in December. 

Gobsmacked and not sure how your seeing that. But your entitled to your opinion. 

Edited December 3, 2016 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

So to be clear, you are completely writing off winter weather in December. 

Gobsmacked and not sure how your seeing that. But your entitled to your opinion. 

No I still think there is a chance of high pressure bringing frost and fog after mid month but also a good chance of the mild weather which arrives next week lasting a while.

[gottolovethisweather]

21 minutes ago, Singularity said:

06 left and 12z right - see the adjustment west in the low by N. America (centre-left of images). This is progress toward the ECM solution, regardless of what the rest of the run gets up to.

Has to be said though, we need to improve on that ECM 00z to see more than a slim chance of below average temperatures returning this side of mid-month.

Update for +138:

  

Alright - we have a whole new ridge in the jet stream pattern as it reaches the N. Atlantic sector. The low over the far-NE America. is maturing as a separate feature to the one in the mid-Atlantic. Good signs - but GFS is still about a day quicker with the N. American storm than ECM, which is no doubt due to differences upstream regarding the phasing (or not) of two jet arms that Nick discussed earlier today.

 

 

 

1

 

 

Yes, the NH Jet profiles around D4 to D6 are intriguing, to say the least, as I noted yesterday. 

While some in here clearly appear to be given up on their cold weather searches, I would say one should NOT be looking too far ahead for signs of changes. The period between the 10th December and the 13th December is my latest watch advisory!

Edited December 3, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

32 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Right now it looks like 8th December 13.00pm next week will be the mildest day with around 5 to 6,5+ warmer than average for most parts of west europé, but seems to be short lived and colder the coming days

 

 

Yes, a mini heat burst (relatively speaking) is possible, might see maximum Temperatures of 15-16c in places that day.  

Edited December 3, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[karlos1983]

So I'm really keen to see the ECM continue it's building of heights to our north. Last 2 runs below, so more improvements is the hope... 

troughs digging a bit further south would be nice. Of course I won't be at all surprised if it's disappeared completely such is the model votality at the moment. 

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Yes, a mini heat burst (relatively speaking) is possible, might see maximum Temperatures of 15-16c in places that day.  

Or maybe even longer, 7-10 days of mild uppers as there is no clear indication that it will even return to more average conditions (the 06z is poor after D7 so that should not be treated as a trend). Anyway the 12z keeps well above average uppers to D10 at least:

D10 anomalies T850s>>>

GFS still keen on draining the PV from Siberia to Canada so that is usually dire for UK, a strong zonal wet windy signal, and a mild one at that. What happens after is the question? 

If it is a continuation of the late Autumn pattern then more ridging from the Azores would be the best guess, followed by Pacific amplification and it all starts over again...

[Singularity]

Hey look, GFS is working its way toward my mid-latitude block scenario. As little as it means in isolation, I see it as a sign that the tropical forcing is becoming 'less unfavourable' as per GP's words the other day 

[Ali1977]

Decent FI on the Op, I'm thinking we'll be seeing plenty of those in the ENS , and possibly earlier.

[gottolovethisweather]

13 minutes ago, IDO said:

Or maybe even longer, 7-10 days of mild uppers as there is no clear indication that it will even return to more average conditions (the 06z is poor after D7 so that should not be treated as a trend). Anyway the 12z keeps well above average uppers to D10 at least:

D10 anomalies T850s>>>

GFS still keen on draining the PV from Siberia to Canada so that is usually dire for UK, a strong zonal wet windy signal, and a mild one at that. What happens after is the question? 

If it is a continuation of the late Autumn pattern then more ridging from the Azores would be the best guess, followed by Pacific amplification and it all starts over again...

 

 

 

Oops, yep, you got me there I'm Dreaming Of. Although, a period of really high Temperatures is currently set to peak on the 7th and 8th December. After that, the behaviour of the Jet Stream alongside other determining factors are likely to negate too much unseasonal warmth. Dull skies and unwelcome cloudiness will likely be more of an issue next week to those wanting something cheery at this time of year, but beggars can't be choosers. Incidentally, the UKMO 12z operational run isn't buying your dire PV setup either as early on as D6, so some hope there too for coldies.

Edited December 3, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[knocker]

This is what people are looking for. Some decent amplification with the Atlantic trough reinforced by energy out of Canada plunging SE on a negative tilt. Simultaneously the trough to the east has encroached SW thanks to some earlier machinations vis the upper lows to the SW/S and this allows phasing of of both low pressure areas and and a cut off upper high pressure cell to the north.Now if this cell were to drift further north or NE

Edited December 3, 2016 by knocker

[IDO]

15 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Oops, yep, you got me there I'm Dreaming Of. Although, a period of really high Temperatures is currently set to peak on the 7th and 8th December. After that, the behaviour of the Jet Stream alongside other determining factors are likely to negate too much unseasonal warmth. Dull skies and unwelcome cloudiness will likely be more of an issue next week to those wanting something cheery at this time of year, but beggars can't be choosers. Incidentally, the UKMO 12z operational run isn't buying your dire PV setup either as early on as D6, so some hope there too for coldies.

Just saying; could go either way after D8, but TBH I have very little confidence how the PV will act from then so many options and the GFS 12z op just one.

[Gael_Force]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

This is what people are looking for. Some decent amplification with the Atlantic trough reinforced by energy out of Canada plunging SE on a negative tilt. Simultaneously the trough to the east has encroached SW thanks to some earlier machinations vis the upper lows to the SW/S and this allows phasing of of both low pressure areas and and a cut off upper high pressure cell to the north.Now if this cell were to drift further north or NE

It's the first indication on a GFS op of the pattern the met office were expecting for mid month. Wonder if it makes it more plausible though?

[cyclonic happiness]

Well, the high pressure came back at the end of the run, and in a big way!   Frosty Christmas anyone? :-)

[karlos1983]

9 minutes ago, knocker said:

This is what people are looking for. Some decent amplification with the Atlantic trough reinforced by energy out of Canada plunging SE on a negative tilt. Simultaneously the trough to the east has encroached SW thanks to some earlier machinations vis the upper lows to the SW/S and this allows phasing of of both low pressure areas and and a cut off upper high pressure cell to the north.Now if this cell were to drift further north or NE

Allow me to finish that sentence  

 

Edited December 3, 2016 by karlos1983

[nick sussex]

Silly me thinking that the models might agree on the upstream pattern this evening. The GFS has made a slight backtrack but really still isn't interested in following this mornings ECM run. The UKMO is more amplified at T144hrs phases the southern and northern jet streams but very far east with little development .The GEM looks like a more middle ground solution between the ECM00hrs and the GFS12hrs. I do think we need the slower more amplified upstream solution but whether we'll get it is another matter. Hopefully the ECM can deliver that and build on its 00hrs trend to develop that high near Iceland.

Edited December 3, 2016 by nick sussex

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 12z looks very Dec 2015 from next midweek with much milder, breezy conditions with rain at times but some fine pleasant spells too..sidney looks interested 

Edited December 3, 2016 by Frosty.

[knocker]

If one takes the GFS scenario that I posted above as a possible route to HP building to the N/NE then one could also view the ecm is preparing the ground a little towards same at the end of the run. To isolate the HP and stop the Azores ridging NE depends quite a bit on the Atlantic trough deconstructing and creating cut off upper low(s) not too far south of the UK so that any future phasing with the trough to the east is close the UK. Then, providing the channel to the Atlantic trough remains open and continues to be reinforced by upstream energy, well who knows. Anyway that's my evening muse out of the way.

Edited December 3, 2016 by knocker

[Scandinavian High.]

I'm likeing the gfs in F1 higher pressure back with frosty nights don't think where going to see a block to the north west more likely  to the north east U.K. Looks like this high pressure trying to push up to  Scandinavia just my take on things still a long way to go.

[markyo]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z looks very Dec 2015 from next midweek with much milder, breezy conditions with rain at times but some fine pleasant spells too..sidney looks interested 

It better not be anything like Dec 2015!! Hope Sidney is disappointed. One of the worst months i can remember