Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Banbury]

27 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

You're posting this while Matt is posting this. No wonder no-one knows what's going on. 

They mean absolutely nothing , they change daily .

It is quite clear this Winter that NO forecast further than 7 days out can be taken seriously .

There was very confident talk of December blocking, this is HIGHLY unlikely now. Before we know it that will be 33% of the winter over

[Blessed Weather]

I hope you don't mind, but I'd like to clear up the confusion with regards Matt's tweets. This is his tweet from YESTERDAY showing the GFS ENS 500mb anomaly for 324 hours (18th Dec).

And this is Matt's tweet from TODAY for the GFS ENS 500mb anomaly for 300 hours (18th Dec). "Still the signal.....etc". And in actual fact it shows an even stronger anomaly to our north.

[The Enforcer]

3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

It is quite clear this Winter that NO forecast further than 7 days out can be taken seriously. There was very confident talk of December blocking, this is HIGHLY unlikely now.

Highly unlikely within the next 7 days.

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

They mean absolutely nothing , they change daily .

It is quite clear this Winter that NO forecast further than 7 days out can be taken seriously .

There was very confident talk of December blocking, this is HIGHLY unlikely now. Before we know it that will be 33% of the winter over

Indeed all these charts are based of the same models that change.... 33% winter over by the end of December... pretty much the same every year

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

I hope you don't mind, but I'd like to clear up the confusion with regards Matt's tweets. This is his tweet from YESTERDAY showing the GFS ENS 500mb anomaly for 324 hours (18th Dec).

And this is Matt's tweet from TODAY for the GFS ENS 500mb anomaly for 300 hours (18th Dec). "Still the signal.....etc". And in actual fact it shows an even stronger anomaly to our north.

Unfortunately theres no sign of a negative anomaly over southern Europe. The problem with these anomalies is that they can make the picture look better than it is.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just remember guys it's only the 5th of December folks!,there is plenty of time for things to switch to a colder scenario,and in the immediate short time i witnessed a very sharp frost with fog this morning and it was like a winter wonderland and it looked as though it had snowed with everything white over,beautiful

any hoos,the Chinese think of this on there latest model,clutching i know but another model all the same,not desperately cold uppers but not far off,trying to get them two in tandem was fun

i just hope we don't get another one of these this winter lol

the 18z out soon,will it be a stella or a brown tea pot?

 

 

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Just remember guys it's only the 5th of December folks!,there is plenty of time for things to switch to a colder scenario,and in the immediate short time i witnessed a very sharp frost with fog this morning and it was like a winter wonderland and it looked as though it had snowed with everything white over,beautiful

any hoos,the Chinese think of this on there latest model,clutching i know but another model all the same,not desperately cold uppers but not far off,trying to get them two in tandem was fun

 

i just hope we don't get another one of these this winter lol

 

the 18z out soon,will it be a stella or a brown tea pot?

 

 

Unfortunately whatever the 18z suggests, the reality for December looks like being a large teapot!!!!

[knocker]

To repeat what I said last evening. The anomalies in the 6-10 range have been in good agreement the last few runs and this still remains the case/ Some slight difference with orientation of the major players which doesn't essentially effect the conclusion.

So still the Aleutian high and Canadian vortex with associated very cold trough North America and the other arm running SE into mid Atlantic. With the European HP slipping south east of the UK this pattern allows the quite strong jet exiting the southern States to swing around the Atlantic trough and track north east. (albeit it splits the energy somewhat with an arm branching down to Africa).The upshot of this is that systems promulgated in the western and mid Atlantic will track NE over the north of the UK with the SE remaining under the influence of the HP. Ergo, and no surprise here, remaining unsettled but more so in the north, fairy dry in the south and east with temps above average.

The 10-15 period is more problematic. Some differences upstream, Mainly between the EPS,NOAA with the GEFS effects the amplification downstream. Essentially the EPS is more zonal whereas the GEFS does have some ridging over the UK with some positive anomalies to the north NOAA perhaps slightly inclined that way as well. Temps would be around average. I'm not seeing where any significant cold is coming from going by this.

While I've been typing this scores of posts have winged up I'm probably repeating everything.

[bobbydog]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Surely then cold (snowy) very very unlikely before xmas based on that suite?

Possibly... but the general consensus is that looking at anything after day 10 in the output is almost pointless. Fortunately, after that point, (the pointless point... ) there is still another 10 days to go before Xmas.  I think I made my point... 

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just remember guys it's only the 5th of December folks!,there is plenty of time for things to switch to a colder scenario,and in the immediate short time i witnessed a very sharp frost with fog this morning and it was like a winter wonderland and it looked as though it had snowed with everything white over,beautiful

any hoos,the Chinese think of this on there latest model,clutching i know but another model all the same,not desperately cold uppers but not far off,trying to get them two in tandem was fun

i just hope we don't get another one of these this winter lol

the 18z out soon,will it be a stella or a brown tea pot?

 

 

Nothing is even being hinted at so something would be massively wrong with all these super computers if a change were to happen in the blink of an eye

[blizzard81]

14 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:

I hope you don't mind, but I'd like to clear up the confusion with regards Matt's tweets. This is his tweet from YESTERDAY showing the GFS ENS 500mb anomaly for 324 hours (18th Dec).

And this is Matt's tweet from TODAY for the GFS ENS 500mb anomaly for 300 hours (18th Dec). "Still the signal.....etc". And in actual fact it shows an even stronger anomaly to our north.

Was it xmas 2005 when gfs trumped all the other models by correctly forecasting a scandi high from quite far out. None of the other models wanted to know until the last moment.

[Snowman.]

The para 12z should be rolling out around the same as the 18z does.

Edited December 5, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[mcweather]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

I hope it's something like this.....goodness me,Merry Christmas and a happy new year every one

run it through

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=354&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

it could happen

God bless you Allseasons-Si

How good to see some optimism when so many others are showing model fatigue on 5th December ( yes 5th December). Really am surprised at some members here  not even a week into meteorological winter and seemingly already in mourning for winter 2016/17.  Surely we know by now that December rarely delivers deep cold  and snow for much of the UK. We were spoilt 2008 through 2010. The GloSea  signal for blocking has always been for the 2nd half of Dec at the very earliest. So what if it turns out to be a week or two late surely better to get some real wintry conditions in the heart of winter and so what if it is 13 or 14c next week. As another post has pointed out it was 14c a couple of days before the snowiest winter of the 20th century for gods sake. A mild week in December means absolutely sod all in how the rest of the winter will turn out.

Honestly this place beggars belief sometimes.

 

[NorthernRab]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

^^^ to be fair why are you using the Highland T2Ms to represent the Uk..

 

Because I live in the Highlands

Edited December 5, 2016 by NorthernRab

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

after day 10 in the output is almost pointless. Fortunately, after that point, (the pointless point... ) there is still another 10 days to go before Xmas.  I think I made my point... 

And you earned yourself a point

It's gone crazy in here tonight, i thought it would be quiet since the models are showing mainly mild for the next 7-10 days but no..it's as busy as if we were expecting a freeze!

[legritter]

Well certainly a very active forum ,I, v popped into some others across the pond  but ours seems full of level headed posters scratching around looking for that brutal cold snowy spell .

Across the pond they are beeting each other up over how much snow is going to fall , they ought to feel ashamed . any how early days for us ,think euro slug will gradually get eroded away ,straw now for me is possible Scandi high or something to our north , pole profile looks about right soon ,but it needs to come to daddy (uk) cheers 

[Seasonality]

13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just remember guys it's only the 5th of December folks!,there is plenty of time for things to switch to a colder scenario,and in the immediate short time i witnessed a very sharp frost with fog this morning and it was like a winter wonderland and it looked as though it had snowed with everything white over,beautiful

any hoos,the Chinese think of this on there latest model,clutching i know but another model all the same,not desperately cold uppers but not far off,trying to get them two in tandem was fun

i just hope we don't get another one of these this winter lol

the 18z out soon,will it be a stella or a brown tea pot?

 

 

Don't laugh folks. The 06z paralell gfs reached a similar outcome to the cma, albeit a few days delayed. A solution as possible as any.

[Allseasons-Si]

35 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

But it won't as we all know ..

I did say it could happen,maybe 5%,i think it is a good model for long term trends and it has picked quiet a few in the last few weeks around that time,we will have to see.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Ali1977]

Is the parallel as good as the normal GFS? As in resolution etc...

[Summer heat]

This could  send temperatures up to 16c in the south  BBQ any one.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Summer heat

[blizzard81]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Is the parallel as good as the normal GFS? As in resolution etc...

Surely you mean is it as bad? lol

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Is the parallel as good as the normal GFS? As in resolution etc...

The para ill replace come Jan. Think of it as the new GFS OP

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

Don't laugh folks. The 06z paralell gfs reached a similar outcome to the cma, albeit a few days delayed. A solution as possible as any.

Why not it's quite plausible, the CMA is powered by processors and weather data just like the big guns. I'm be hedging my bets mind you but it's a model run never the less.

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Summer heat said:

This could be send temperatures up to 16c in the south  BBQ any one.

There should be a dislike button for this post

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Summer heat said:

This could be send temperatures up to 16c in the south  BBQ any one.

 

The beeb are saying mid teens for NE Scotland on Wednesday

GFS shows 13c