Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Ali1977]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

Surely you mean is it as bad? lol

I heard it's FI was incredibly accurate..ha

Just wondering if it's worth taking note, it's FI has been fairly consistent with regards a block to the North.

[booferking]

If we cant get HLB then i would settle for zonal weather with a sinking jet and chances of White stuff to boot. PM air in the mix some might even be lucky enough to have a White Christmas.

[Allseasons-Si]

Just now, SN0WM4N said:

The para ill replace come Jan. Think of it as the new GFS OP

I thought it was May?,could be wrong but did someone mention this yesterday.

[Catacol]

32 minutes ago, Banbury said:

It is quite clear this Winter that NO forecast further than 7 days out can be taken seriously .

There was very confident talk of December blocking, this is HIGHLY unlikely now. Before we know it that will be 33% of the winter over

There is a fairly substantial contradiction in this reasoning. It's amazing how, within 24 hours of the arrival of milder air, people seem convinced now that mild is here to stay long term. We are 5 days into winter and now we are writing off 33% of it?

Bearing in mind operational output has swung away from cold in the last 10 days - what is to stop it swinging back? Certainly not background drivers. They continue, as ever, to reinforce the view that this winter is totally different to last. The chance for cold and snow is no less than it was 2 weeks ago. All that has happened in the meantime is a relaxing of the blocking pattern as the last Pacific wave died out and we await the beginning of the next. Forecasts today show the MJO picking up speed once again. Vortex conditions are not perfect, but they are certainly not bad as we wait to see whether further wave breaking might create increasingly favourable tropospheric impacts. 

Nothing at all has changed. Anyone who had hoped for rampant HLB at a time of falling AAM was on rocky ground. I expect the EC tonight to maintain the hblocking signal as amplification starts to return. Whether we can get it in exactly the right spot for us to cash in on snow in late December remains to be seen.

We have had so much intrigue already and it's only Dec 5!! Great stuff. Keep some perspective while we wait for the mild shot to depart.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Catacol

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, Summer heat said:

This could be send temperatures up to 16c in the south  BBQ any one.

at 336 hours out...very doubtful

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I thought it was May?,could be wrong but did someone mention this yesterday.

Could be May im unsure i thought it was Jan

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

There is a fairly substantial contradiction in this reasoning. It's amazing how, within 24 hours of the arrival of milder air, people seem convinced now that mild is here to stay long term. We are 5 days into winter and now we are writing off 33% of it?

Bearing in mind operational output has swung away from cold in the last 10 days - what is to stop it swinging back? Certainly not background drivers. They continue, as ever, to reinforce the view that this winter is totally different to last. The chance for cold and snow is no less than it was 2 weeks ago. All that has happened in the meantime is a relaxing of the blocking pattern as the last Pacific wave died out and we await the beginning of the next. Forecasts today show the MJO picking up speed once again. Vortex conditions are not perfect, but they are certainly not bad as we wait to see whether further wave breaking might create increasingly favourable tropospheric impacts. 

Nothing at all has changed. Anyone who had hoped for rampant HLB at a time of falling AAM was on rocky ground. I expect the EC tonight to maintain th blocking signal as amplification starts to return. Whether we can get it in exactly the right spot for us to cash in on snow in late December remains to be seen.

We have had so much intrigue already and it's only Dec 5!! Great stuff. Keep some perspective while we wait for the mild shot to depart.

Not really , I see absolutely nothing in the offing , as I said there isn't any hint AT ALL of anything wintry , unless you can show me

As for the chance of snow being no less than 2 weeks ago,......maybe , but cast your mind back there was so much optimism due to the chat of Dec blocking, tweets from the pro's etc. Nothing on show currently. The latest Met update mentions unsettled weather returning later in the outlook .

Its all in perspective my friend , I'm the biggest cold lover, but the end of the rainbow I keep getting to is potless

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

And you earned yourself a point

It's gone crazy in here tonight, i thought it would be quiet since the models are showing mainly mild for the next 7-10 days but no..it's as busy as if we were expecting a freeze!

We like to keep the MOD buzzing regardless of what the models show

it's far too early to be downbeat about what the models show,i am still interested in the 144 hrs mark not being nailed on yet.

[Paul]

6 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Could be May im unsure i thought it was Jan

It's May, but I'd guess there could be changes from whatever the para is running now, to something different nearer that point.

[Ali1977]

Are the EC 46 an extension the the Extended EPS 15 day? If so you would think they won't be showing anything this side of the 20th!! I still hope Xmas week signals a change .

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Are the EC 46 an extension the the Extended EPS 15 day? If so you would think they won't be showing anything this side of the 20th!! I still hope Xmas week signals a change .

I believe that they are an extension of the 00z run. There is no chance that thy will show anything different pre week 3. They aren't meant to! 

[Tonyinhampshire]

5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

The beeb are saying mid teens for NE Scotland on Wednesday

GFS shows 13c

Yes please. Thats hotter than some temps we had back in June. 

 

[Catacol]

20 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Not really , I see absolutely nothing in the offing , as I said there isn't any hint AT ALL of anything wintry , unless you can show me

As for the chance of snow being no less than 2 weeks ago,......maybe , but cast your mind back there was so much optimism due to the chat of Dec blocking, tweets from the pro's etc. Nothing on show currently. The latest Met update mentions unsettled weather returning later in the outlook .

Its all in perspective my friend , I'm the biggest cold lover, but the end of the rainbow I keep getting to is potless

Hard to square a comment that "no forecast further than 7 days out can be taken seriously" with "talk of December blocking... is highly unlikely now."

The key is to understand the drivers. Do that and the forecasting comes into perspective. 

[Paul]

7 hours ago, Paul said:

Wow, and that's more moved!

*Have checked my posts are not invisible, and they're not*

So in which case, and for the sake of clarity before I stop clogging this thread up and start thinking about having to stop people posting in here:

If your post isn't specifically about the forecast model output then please don't post it in here!

Thank you. 

Just reposting this as we're back to having to move some posts again. Please think what you're posting where, and particularly if you want to just post a doom laden, 'why won't it be cold' type moan with zero model discussion, then the moaning thread is your friend

 

[booferking]

I am just waiting for the there is better heights towards greenland/iceland in this run there i done it.

Edited December 5, 2016 by booferking

[Great Plum]

Surely this is a bit of an improvement...

 

[Kent Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, stewfox said:

 

Max 2c just across the water all to play for

 

 

In the mountains perhaps.

[Catacol]

Yes - I should put a hot iron into my groin for posting an op run further than 5 days out... but gfs 18z seeing much greater amplification to our north and atlantic stalling. One run in isolation - let;s not get carried away... but maybe it might help put a sticking plaster on the open wound of misery in here today!

[karlos1983]

Scandi heights forming again but it's merely a tease I fear. Just impossible to maintain heights with the energy barrelling towards/over it.

 

Although tentative signs of trough distruption close to the uk a few frames on 

Edited December 5, 2016 by karlos1983

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

7 minutes ago, booferking said:

I am just waiting for the there is better heights towards greenland/iceland in this run there i done it.

North Easterly flow there into errrrrr.......Shetland.

It's a start?!

Edited December 5, 2016 by Kentish Snowman

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

Surely this is a bit of an improvement...

 

If it wasn't the 18z then I'd be tempted to agree

the parallel 12z is slow out

no word on the 46 yet is generally going to mean no strong cold signal (usually Stewart would have a comment if there was) . 

more evidence from the 18z that there is no chance of a quick route to cold via a cross polar flow. That boat seems to have sunk for good during today despite the 00z ECM op patching it up for 12 hours! 

[Nick F]

GFS getting a complete overhaul in a few years to morph into NGGPS

http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-to-develop-new-global-weather-model

[pyrotech]

1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Really is going take something not well-modelled by the ops to change the pattern more favourably, like you say warming/+ve heights working down from the stratosphere. 

However, the MJO for a while is not looking favourable for sustained trop  blocking in our locale, plus the upcoming deep and intense cold sweeping N America will only serve to stoke the fire of the PFJ downstream towards the U.K. Not really surprised the ops are churning out the mundane mobile Atlantic charts with unfavourable MJO, low AAM and slightly strengthening wQBO working against HLB ... for now.

maybe the EC46 will give some relief from the op monotony later.

Hi Nick

The current MJO recently has been against blocking and so until around 15 days from now its dire, but MJO looks to go weak and so maybe after that the scenario changes.

We are already in very weak phase 1  and looks to stay weak for at least a week. We then have complete shanon entropy as the spaghetti gets thrown everywhere. For me that means in under 15 days time Scandi  or Siberian high looks most likely to start to develop.

The North American picture can of course spoil this but its all to play for.

I see the MJO effects around 11 to 15 days later.

 

 

[Nick F]

Wrt to EC46 (weeklies), not completely out, but this is week 3 as a teaser ... H500 +anomalies to the NE this time

[blizzard81]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If it wasn't the 18z then I'd be tempted to agree

the parallel 12z is slow out

no word on the 46 yet is generally going to mean no strong cold signal (usually Stewart would have a comment if there was) . 

more evidence from the 18z that there is no chance of a quick route to cold via a cross polar flow. That boat seems to have sunk for good during today despite the 00z ECM op patching it up for 12 hours! 

Lol, even the 18z can't muster up anything cold. Guess where all the cold is headed? What? Greece? Again?