Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Iceberg]

Very quickly just gone through the ens member and around 50% have   A blocked Atlantic with struggling pv and many Greenland highs as we go into the beginning of January. 

At this stage I don't give a monkeys where things are positioned for us, nor whether we have cold from it or not. It's purely the general trend.  

[LRD]

20 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Very quickly just gone through the ens member and around 50% have   A blocked Atlantic with struggling pv and many Greenland highs as we go into the beginning of January. 

At this stage I don't give a monkeys where things are positioned for us, nor whether we have cold from it or not. It's purely the general trend.  

Yes, I've had a quick run through them too. Fair number of Atlantic and Greenland heights to varying degrees. The control run looks decent. Admittedly most, if not all, of the eye candy is in FI but far more promising than it was only 24 hours ago. A better day models-wise so far today

Control:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0 

Edited December 20, 2016 by LRD

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, LRD said:

Yes, I've had a quick run through them too. Fair number of Atlantic and Greenland heights to varying degrees. The control run looks decent. Admittedly most, if not all, of the eye candy is in FI but far more promising than it was only 24 hours ago. A better day models-wise so far today

Control:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=0&mode=0 

We were in this position a week-ten days back though when in FI about 50% of the perts had some form of blocking or predisposition to blocking (at high latitude). 

[LRD]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

We were in this position a week-ten days back though when in FI about 50% of the perts had some form of blocking or predisposition to blocking (at high latitude). 

Yep, that's true but the last 2 or 3 days we have had absolutely nothing positive to go on. It may come to nought, of course, but at least we have straws to clutch this evening

[SMU]

A chilly inversion -

[The PIT]

Apart from some interesting weather in the next few days or so it soon settles back into the nothing type of weather. It's a bit bad that a chilly inversion is most notable thing for cold.  XCweather shows a 94mph gust of the north east of Scotland on Sunday.

[daz_4]

ECM paints very familiar picture this evening with another arctic outbreak to SE.

[northwestsnow]

Well ecm looks chilly later on as we pick up a continental drift.

December insofar as snow is concerned is a dead duck.The hope is that we can somehow get some amplification upstream or it will be another chunk of winter up the swanny, at day 10 ecm we STILL see a positive NAO..

[Summer Sun]

Friday into Saturday looks very windy in the north with gales probable but the rest of the weekend doesn't look too bad according to ECM

Edited December 20, 2016 by Summer Sun

[mountain shadow]

12 ECM more realistic of the expected pattern given background signals and teleconnections which make forecasting for our wee islands pretty easy for the next few weeks at least. Any individual GEFS member showing a HLB can be ignored.

[SMU]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

12 ECM more realistic of the expected pattern given background signals and teleconnections which make forecasting for our wee islands pretty easy for the next few weeks at least. Any individual GEFS member showing a HLB can be ignored.

Post day 14 will be where theres any potential interest ( week 2 of Jan )

[Geordiesnow]

Still a bit of uncertainty with the 2 potential storms although it now looks like the main core of the first storm will pass through the Scotland/Iceland corridoor but not without potentially leaving a sting in its tail with the potential of severe gales, i will maintain that this first storm is still uncertain as its has not formed yet and I would not rule out it being further South or North which will make a huge difference.

The 2nd low at the moment is not forecast to be as deep but its going to send a huge slice of tropical maritime air towards the UK for xmas day which is a slight change to yesterday's outputs but the colder air does eventually sweep in for boxing day. Its going to be interesting too see if this 2nd low does actually deepen significantly or not and whether it will be anything like how the GFS sees it. The potential for a squall line is certainly possible.

[Stuie]

Had a gander at the old JS on the GFS. Is this a sign of how West HP could be setting up allowing some of that Eastern cold pool to migrate towards us?

Edit:

Latest ECM isn`t too far away from the mark either.

Edit 2:

Concept being hopefully with a fairly active jet from N to S finally we can get some cold down into Europe. If we can pull a -NAO out of the hat then who knows? Some straw clutching but it`s a straw.

Edited December 20, 2016 by Stuie W

[Iceberg]

Ecm backs up the potential imho. Remember the change occurs in January so beyond the Ecm range, but ecm at t240 shows the majority of the pv shifting over to the Russian side with the last remnant to the east of Greenland and losing its mojo. 

From there we should see the gfs majority trend to t360 to build Atlantic blocking. 

Edited December 20, 2016 by Iceberg
Damn iPhone

[legritter]

Looking at tonights models and charts data etc there's enough to keep me interested ,and a nice straw to clutch regarding the possibility of high pressure setting up shop and hopefully as we enter January 2017 possibly pulling in some cold synoptics ,but at the back of my mind I have a dread of big fat euro slugs (terrible creatures ) just hoping they don't convince the met office high pressure to breed on main land Europe, just a quick joke ,one fat euro slug to another  ,cheer up mate in another 4 months we are off too  Iceland for our holidays ,well gang let's carry on with the search for cold and snow we have some hints on ecm towards the end of its run tonight and met office hinting of high to our West, and it's still only December the 20th ,game still and truly on ,cheers all  .

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z looks nice and settled following the unsettled blip, overnight frosts and fog patches will make it feel seasonal

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 hour ago, Iceberg said:

Ecm backs up the potential imho. Remember the change occurs in January so beyond the Ecm range, but ecm at t240 shows the majority of the pv shifting over to the Russian side with the last remnant to the east of Greenland and losing its mojo. 

From there we should see the gfs majority trend to t360 to build Atlantic blocking. 

The majority of the vortex is not on the Russian side at all. It's fairly central and directly over the pole. There is 0 of interest on that day 10 chart- a familiar tale of our HP not being able to gain enough latitude. All it's doing is stinking up the place time and again.

That's exactly the same set up we've been in for weeks now with majority of jet going over the top of MLB.

Edited December 20, 2016 by phil nw.
Removed ot comments.

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The majority of the vortex is not on the Russian side at all. It's fairly central and directly over the pole. There is 0 of interest on that day 10 chart- a familiar tale of our HP not being able to gain enough latitude. All it's doing is stinking up the place time and again.

Stop moaning, it is what it is, at least we should see some night frosts and pleasant weather.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Stop moaning, it is what it is, at least we should see some night frosts and pleasant weather.

I'm not moaning but it's misleading when people post a chart at day 10 and say 'this has potential'. It's even more annoying when said chart doesn't even show said potential.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, snowingtequila said:

A bit harsh don't you think. I thought this was a forum not a 'if you are mistaken, don't post again room.

No it's not harsh. It'd be nice if the point could be embellished as to where this 'potential' is being seen that is all. Iceberg is a long standing member of this forum so a little bit of realistic description as to where this potential is would be nice for the less learned surely?

[Iceberg]

After 20 years of model watching from the old mrf days onwards I'll keep calling thanks. 

Compare it with gfs at that time range and see. Particularly one of the many runs today that show the blocked Atlantic. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

After 20 years of model watching from the old mrf days onwards I'll keep calling thanks. 

Compare it with gfs at that time range and see. Particularly one of the many runs today that show the blocked Atlantic. 

The Atlantic isn't blocked though? It's roaring away 500 miles N of us!

We need to be on the N side of the jet, not stuck on its southern side under a dome of warm uppers!

Edited December 20, 2016 by CreweCold

[Stuie]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The Atlantic isn't blocked though? It's roaring away 1000 miles N of us!

There`s the point Crewe, blocked to us?

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

After 20 years of model watching from the old mrf days onwards I'll keep calling thanks. 

Compare it with gfs at that time range and see. Particularly one of the many runs today that show the blocked Atlantic. 

Indeed, even should (heaven forbid) the potential not be realised, it's still there; it's plain for all to see...But - a word of caution, before we all buy snowshoes - it is only potential!

[That ECM]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The majority of the vortex is not on the Russian side at all. It's fairly central and directly over the pole. There is 0 of interest on that day 10 chart- a familiar tale of our HP not being able to gain enough latitude. All it's doing is stinking up the place time and again.

If you can't see that's exactly the same set up we've been in for weeks now (with majority of jet going over the top of MLB), it's time to give up on this weather lark. 

He said that the Pv was shifting over to, he didn't say it was over. It's his opinion and one that is not impossible to see. No one has the right to suggest that someone should give up this weather lark. Have you ever given an opinion and been wrong.? If he or anyone else sees something in the output they wish to voice then good on them.