Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[snowray]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Can you please explain what you mean? I'm clueless right now?

Well High Pressure is moving in a lot more quickly on this run Ben, and our Northerly is over Holland and Germany now not the UK.

[Iceberg]

Back to models and ecm at t144 looks far more like the meto model particilarly if you look at the lows influencing the high to the north and west. 

Gfs imo has persistently Badly modelled the energy on the east us coast and into the Atlantic for the last few weeks. 

Ecm has plenty of energy under that high. 

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

3 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Can you please explain what you mean? It would be valuable to those who want to learn and myself!

I think he is referring to the fact that the northerly air flow has been cut off as the high pressure has toppled over the uk.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Really frustrating seeing the high sink on the ecm, not entirely sure how ir can be saved at 144.

not a downgrade for us though, eastern snow looks like it may not happen now, I was just thinking snowfest for Sunderland, most of the east and Kent, we were not due snow

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Really frustrating seeing the high sink on the ecm, not entirely sure how ir can be saved at 144.

Looks good to me.

[london-snow]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

+T144.....gone!

What's gone? we are literally a few hundred miles off a very decent cold spell with possible snow chances. I don't see no mild pattern incoming can you? 

[frosty ground]

Just now, booferking said:

Looks good to me.

It looks like a reload to me

[Duane S.]

13 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Before I do read this post of mine 5 days ago. Far more accurate than these silly teleconnections which people use only to make their posts seem more technical. Quote has gone wrong. Read my prediction on page 188 on this thread!!

As for week 2. I have never said severe but possibly swinging towards a NE,ly. Following the tame N,ly a brief less cold period followed by a reload from the N which shall eventually veer NE,ly.

 I often enjoy reading your posts TEITS, but seriously, the bit in bold above is doing you no favours at all.

In fact toys starting to be scattered about by many, far and wide from the pram today, as the realisation dawns we aren't going to have a repeat  of 1963. Shock horror surprise.

Anyway, it all looks full steam ahead for a great month of great potential. That's all we can ask for at that stage. The window of opportunity remains, downgrades and upgrades wil happen but until a full on Atlantic zonal train is upon us and in all the chart outputs to boot, let's enjoy the moment. Nothing has or hadn't occurred yet for goodness sake. 

 

[bluearmy]

Amazing that the only time the ecm doesn't show consistency is when it has churned out a mega cold scenario!

despite upstream ridges, our mid Atlantic ridge is not interested in retrogression and slips away into the continent

is that three ecm ops now showing the same evolution? 

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Anyone have an idea or suggestion for why the High seems to track towards the UK at T144, when there doesn't seem to be much energy of Eastern US/Canada?

[northwestsnow]

168 is better than i thought but the high is sinking surely.On the other hand low pressure has pushed into south europe...

[winterof79]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

+T144.....gone!

Relax people.The high is just progged differently on this run.The MET see it hanging around most of Jan so I for one am happy.No Atlantic onslaught always in the game for colder N/NE outbreaks.

[snowray]

+T168 High sinks, maybe a second bite of the apple coming up....

[January Snowstorm]

Well a wait and see now for round 2 with the new year event now confirmed a blink or you'll miss. I like a bit of weather around Christmas / new year but not this year unfortunately.

Attention again swings to FI to see can we get a 2nd bite of the cherry 

[snowwman]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It looks like a reload to me

Just what I was thinking.

[Iceberg]

Got to laugh at the ecm at t168 it blows the energy under the high into an enormous cut off low. Not sure I believe that tbh. 

The funny thing is that a combination of all three models would actually be pretty good at t144 and t168 !

[Paul_1978]

10 minutes ago, london-snow said:

 

Sorry did I write it off?

No not you, the poster you originally quoted. 

[shotski]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Fear not, the day 10 chart will no doubt look brilliant or full of potential.

No , the whole run looks full of potential to me. sub zero nights and cold crisp days, that will do for starters. If you want anything more I suggest you move to Canada or Eastern Europe. 

Edited December 27, 2016 by shotski

[winterof79]

Where is the high going to sink?Due South straight through Portugal.Low heights either side.All that will do is allow cold to come South as there is nothing coming from the West

The Atlantic road is closed for the foreseeable

 

 

Edited December 27, 2016 by winterof79

[January Snowstorm]

ecm at 192hrs and it's more or less back to square one with constant heights to our south. Another week of Winter used up 

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Fear not, the day 10 chart will no doubt look brilliant or full of potential.

Oh yeeehhh, I forgot about that, all eyes on the day 10 chart then!

 

T192

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, shotski said:

No , the whole run looks full of potential to me. Could sub zero nights and cold crisp days, that will do for starters. If you want anything more I suggest you move to Canada or Eastern Europe. 

A snow flake or two would be enough for me. Anyhow, straying wildy off topic.

[IDO]

There has been a very low chance, if you can even call it that for that first ridge to sustain; it has always been a toppler & sinker IMO, like the one earlier in the month. It will not change now despite UKMO D6 charts. If you watch the PV direction you will see that it will be impossible to sustain the first ridge/HP; grouping of lower heights in Russia/Siberia.

And for the same reason, the PV movement, the second attempt fails on the GFS; the PV lobe gets squeezed from Siberia to NE Canada, flattening the pattern. 

The driver is clearly the PV mobility despite two wave forcing in the Atlantic and Pacific. It is clearly more active at the moment and the consequence is to dampen any MLB let alone HLB. After D10 it settles for a while over NE Canada and we get heights building again in to the Euro region. Its been the story of the Winter, but January will no doubt be colder than the December HP fest.

Edited December 27, 2016 by IDO

[January Snowstorm]

Gets better at 216hrs though with heights rising again over Greenland 

It must be said that on a positive note all roads this evening lead to cold in FI with all agreeing on heights to our NW

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

Second bite of the cherry coming up!