Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[bluearmy]

25 minutes ago, knocker said:

I think that looks like a very optimistic interpretation on the mean anomaly charts. There is no obvious 'joining' or 'phasing' of the Azores trough and the one to the east and a weak ridge is still retained between them. Although the negative anomalies do pay homage. And the 200mb wind field is pretty diffuse and weak.

I should have said 'low anomolies' rather than trough though I'm not sure the weak ridge is relevant days 14 and 15.  and the 200mb wind looks pretty good to me as it departs the eastern seaboard and heads due east towards Iberia, slowly becoming more diffuse as it approaches the continent. 

i maintain that's the best extended run I've seen for coldies. The pattern gets better as the run progresses - usually it becomes less dramatic as it reverts back toward climatology. I don't expect to see anything nearly as good as that for the rest of the winter! 

 

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I should have said 'low anomolies' rather than trough though I'm not sure the weak ridge is relevant days 14 and 15.  and the 200mb wind looks pretty good to me as it departs the eastern seaboard and heads due east towards Iberia, slowly becoming more diffuse as it approaches the continent. 

i maintain that's the best extended run I've seen for coldies. The pattern gets better as the run progresses - usually it becomes less dramatic as it reverts back toward climatology. I don't expect to see anything nearly as good as that for the rest of the winter! 

 

Perhaps not but it's as equally relevant as a weak trough and it's actually quite a strong ridge day twelve. We will agree to differ as usual

[blizzard81]

Gfs18z looking like a much cleaner reload for cold. This at day 6.

[BARRY]

7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Gfs18z looking like a much cleaner reload for cold. This at day 6.

Orientation looks that much better. 

[swfc]

slight but subtle changes on the 18z.170 hrs area look towards iceland and scandinavia.pressure rising and low fading

[Nick F]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Looking through the extended eps - wow! 

basically  sceuro trough and griceland ridge. The Azores trough then spreads east to join with the sceuro to bring the 'holy grail' of southerly jet flat across the Atlantic under the high anomoly into the broad euro low anomoly. I don't expect to see a better mean anomoly run for coldies. as Matt tweeted, need to see some consistency on it but it isn't a flip from previous output. 

 

Pretty impressed by the 12z EPS NAO mean too, first time I've seen it negative for such a protracted period ... a rarer beast in our winters nowadays though seems to be more common in months that are not normally cold in the other seasons

 

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Perhaps not but it's as equally relevant as a weak trough and it's actually quite a strong ridge day twelve. We will agree to differ as usual

Day 12?  The anomolies don't join up till after that knocker.  We end with days 14 and 15 showing the best charts. Prior to that the cold is delivered by the sceuro low anomoly and griceland high anomoly combo as I posted. 

[Snowman.]

18z obviously didn't get the memo and is still running on that "Christmas data" That's a joke btw

 

Cold uppers flirt the east coast. Could be very cold.

Edited December 27, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

18z obviously didn't get the memo and is still running on that "Christmas data"

 

Cold uppers flirt the east coast. Could be very cold.

Chilly enough

[tight isobar]

There is NO! NON pre-post at now data.. .

Its fundamental bull##itt..

Refrain' from that FACT!..AND output will be your friend. 

[Ali1977]

It would be nice if we could get a WAA link up from either side of the pole.

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

There is NO! NON pre-post at now data.. .

Its fundamental bull##itt..

Refrain' from that FACT!..AND output will be your friend. 

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

There is NO! NON pre-post at now data.. .

Its fundamental bull##itt..

Refrain' from that FACT!..AND output will be your friend. 

enjoy your drink ?

[January Snowstorm]

3 minutes ago, Banbury said:

Chilly enough

Not much below average for early Jan.

I'm sorry guys but I just don't buy into this cold spell. I mean for ordinary joe public it will be a couple of cold frosty mornings gradually getting milder as next week goes on. After that is anyone's guess and yes we have a lotto ticket at least this year. BUT eventhough the jackpot is huge the odds are stacked against

[swfc]

hmm pretty much flattened out post 240hrs.on to tom and another theme know doubt.

[Frost HoIIow]

Just now, swfc said:

hmm pretty much flattened out post 240hrs.on to tom and another theme know doubt.

Let's just get into the reliable timeframe instead of fretting about +240hrs

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Day 12?  The anomolies don't join up till after that knocker.  We end with days 14 and 15 showing the best charts. Prior to that the cold is delivered by the sceuro low anomoly and griceland high anomoly combo as I posted. 

I'm well aware the anomalies are only connected after that but as you are always so keen to point out charts at the end of the run tend towards climatology and as your original post was incorrectly talking about the trough I was merely indicating that at day twelve the ridge was actually quite strong. Frankly looking at the five day evolution using just the means I feel one could arrive at two or three interpretations.

[Geordiesnow]

9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Not much below average for early Jan.

I'm sorry guys but I just don't buy into this cold spell. I mean for ordinary joe public it will be a couple of cold frosty mornings gradually getting milder as next week goes on. After that is anyone's guess and yes we have a lotto ticket at least this year. BUT eventhough the jackpot is huge the odds are stacked against

Although details still need to be sorted out, I do think we are heading into some sort of colder period(i would not use the words 'cold spell' atm) and I  we are getting more in agreement of a short blast cold air from the North before less cold air topples in from the North West. The lack of link up to Greenland is no surprise and it continues the trend where attempted ridges more often than not fail to ridge into Greenland for one reason or another. In fairness though, only a few runs have shown this and the general trend has been for a Northerly toppler with the high nosing back in

I think the main story from this upcoming spell of weather will be the wind chill as frost should not be that severe on a widespread level due to the wind and snowfall looks limited to say the least although there is some risk of wintry/snow showers on Eastern coasts if albeit the window of opportunity is a small one.

Still nice too see the trend of a cold block developing over Scandi, just hope it can lead to something down the line but we shall see. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

JMA looking fairly similar to tonight's ECM at day 10 with a possible reload.

[geordiekev]

Something to add with regards to comments only 10 days ago with regards to pattern resets. Many on here touted a zonal reset being the key to getting cold and amplified patterns to rid the Euro Russian high. Yet some of the long founded members were saying "careful what you wish for", we could be locked in to zonal for weeks. 

Of course I'm not dishing persons instincts but I do feel the 4 day reset has done the trick and shifted the northern hemisphere profile into a pattern rife for polar and continental incursions. 

We got lucky with November and as Fergie said its unusual to get 2 months CET below average, so JAN must hold more prababilstic promise.

[IM NOT REALLY HERE]

11 minutes ago, vizzy2004 said:

JMA looking fairly similar to tonight's ECM at day 10 with a possible reload.

It looks like the JMA got a Spirograph for Christmas. 

[AGAL]

25 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Not much below average for early Jan.

I'm sorry guys but I just don't buy into this cold spell. I mean for ordinary joe public it will be a couple of cold frosty mornings gradually getting milder as next week goes on. After that is anyone's guess and yes we have a lotto ticket at least this year. BUT eventhough the jackpot is huge the odds are stacked against

I think we are so starved of serious cold nowadays that many jump ( I used to)  onto the models  second guessing very slim  chance cold windows of opportunity reality and can get carried away living a cyber  severe spell that hasn't actually happened. Even tonight I kept popping out of the house to check if the frost was still there. So yes we can all talk up a phoney cold war even though it hasn't actually happened. By the way "lotto winning ticket" pretty much sums it up.

Freezing bitter cold spell with snow............It Could Be  You. Yeah, right

[Dennis]

 

[AGAL]

37 minutes ago, Banbury said:

enjoy your drink ?

Sorry mods  briefly OT: Banbury are you Marcus from TWO

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, vizzy2004 said:

Everyone will sleep well tonight knowing that the the highly respected CFS is forecasting the mother of all easterlys and -16c upper 850s over central England.

 

5 days early....but spot on.....if a tad too mild !  No but interesting re comments though coming in and model outlook.  If the surge of cold I have progged comes in mid Jan it will be deep deep cold.  This is getting very watchable.

of interest to show how Q the sun is re sunspots. For Laymen count we need 336 pixels per spot.....we currently run at 12.  There 'should' be repercussions from this

 

BFTP

Edited December 27, 2016 by BLAST FROM THE PAST