Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Well the one positive so far is the 850's lowering for the Xmas period

We might get lucky and see a frost on the 25th....

Why wait till then

[Summer Sun]

Chance of some snow over high ground in the north on the 25th

[Summer Sun]

A couple of runs from GFS now showing the PV weakening towards month's end whether it benefits us long term in getting something colder and snowier who knows

[snowblizzard]

17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Lack of comments say it all, boring Dec with little chance of anything white from the Sky unfortunately!! Early Jan not sounding great neither so will have to settle for a 1947 rather than 63 type winter

Never to be seen again!

[Captain Shortwave]

24 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Lack of comments say it all, boring Dec with little chance of anything white from the Sky unfortunately!! Early Jan not sounding great neither so will have to settle for a 1947 rather than 63 type winter

Unfortunately we can't use that argument either as there were cold spells in mid-December 1946 and the start of January 1947, just brief spells and tasters compared to the main event which started in the last 10 days of January, the polar profile was in bits with blocking well established.

   

 

Moving on anyway, the chance of getting a continental feel is still there, though the flatter output across the board isn't great for this with northern areas remaining mild throughout to day 10.

GFS/UKMO/GEM

      

It almost feels like the Euro/Scandi high is the last bastion of any mid-latitude heights, let alone northern blocking. The PV at the moment looks rather formidable, I hope that this is only a brief phase and we will see these low heights dissipate over the pole in coming weeks.

Edited December 11, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[northwestsnow]

UKMO-

Turn..that..image..upside-down..and..you..have........summer!

[IDO]

51 minutes ago, stewfox said:

GFS 12Z updating. 86% complete, 14% left all to play for. 

That is the period where I expect the Euro surface high to push east, and we have a short period of cold zonality before the next pulse of heights feed in from the Atlantic. Rinse and repeat...

 Looking at the EPO we are unlikely to get any help from upstream re amplification, so no Pacific ridge to change the pattern:

As the clusters show the period from D5-12 where there are UK heights there is entropy, but not the kind where a synoptic change is likely, more so where the core heights sit and what surface flow the UK gets? So current output may change run to run, but settled UK is the watch word (S/SE favoured). I see no sign of core heights building close to Scandi despite the comments to the contrary, the PV is pumping up during this period (consistent signal) and the GEFS have been against it; Euro high it is, as it has been modelled for days. It seems very doubtful any significant changes will happen in December and we hope the uptick in the PV does not dampen the January prospects. This has been a year where the form book is of little use so I for one will not be hazarding a guess as to week 4 onward.

 

Edited December 11, 2016 by IDO

[gottolovethisweather]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO-

Turn..that..image..upside-down..and..you..have........summer!

 

If there are inversion opportunities within, I'll take them with open arms. Second best conditions(dry, cold and frosty by morning) in winter if we can't have snow. As an aside, most useful snow-making synoptics arrive after Boxing Day all the way through to March, so I don't understand all the pessimism. CHINS UP GUYS N GALS!  

[gottolovethisweather]

26 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The sooner we get rid of the high the better , it looks like FI the PV weakens which happened in the 06z. The Alps need snow, if we can get some fronts heading W to E down that far then we may have some chance of getting some WAA far enough North to create a proper block and not a rubbishy Euro one. 

Better looking NH for sure, Alps getting some snow too.

2

Ali, you say "the sooner we get rid of the high the better", why? It hasn't quite arrived upon our shores, tomorrow is average temperatures darn south in my neck of the woods and wet, you can KEEP it!

I say bring it on, why?

1. Reasoning one: We primarily keep the Atlantic fronts at bay.
2. Reasoning two: Temperatures are likely to slowly trend downwards as the High migrates Northwards and hopefully NNE'wards if I choose to be umm choosy.
3. Reasoning three: This would be a Godsend if it were to happen, for the wider environment, farming (think disease and pests) and the countryside's wildlife. It will bring some normalisation to our seasons for once too.
4. Reasoning four: It might result in abundant sunshine, yes that's me straw clutching. 
5. Final reason: I don't need one, it's the form horse to my mind, now.

I say, look East and North, not South and West in time for the final third of December.

 

[karlos1983]

15 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

If there are inversion opportunities within, I'll take them with open arms. Second best conditions(dry, cold and frosty by morning) in winter if we can't have snow. As an aside, most useful snow-making synoptics arrive after Boxing Day all the way through to March, so I don't understand all the pessimism. CHINS UP GUYS N GALS!  

I'm thinking the feeling of being back in the 90's is where all pessimism has come from. Especially after such promise. Understandable I think. Cold winters rarer than hens teeth lately. 

We know how hard the Euro slug can be to shift once in place. Or is that uncle Bartlett 

[Carl46Wrexham]

3 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Ali, you say "the sooner we get rid of the high the better", why? It hasn't quite arrived upon our shores, tomorrow is average temperatures darn south in my neck of the woods and wet, you can KEEP it!

I say bring it on, why?

1. Reasoning one: We primarily keep the Atlantic fronts at bay.
2. Reasoning two: Temperatures are likely to slowly trend downwards as the High migrates Northwards and hopefully NNE'wards if I choose to be umm choosy.
3. Reasoning three: This would be a Godsend if it were to happen, for the wider environment, farming (think disease and pests) and the countryside's wildlife. It will bring some normalisation to our seasons for once too.
4. Reasoning four: It might result in abundant sunshine, yes that's me straw clutching. 
5. Final reason: I don't need one, it's the form horse to my mind, now.

I say, look East and North, not South and West in time for the final third of December.

 

Reason 6 : No repeat of the horrendous flooding which impacted parts of the UK last year.

[gottolovethisweather]

43 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'm thinking the feeling of being back in the 90's is where all pessimism has come from. Especially after such promise. Understandable I think. Cold winters rarer than hens teeth lately. 

We know how hard the Euro slug can be to shift once in place. Or is that uncle Bartlett 

 

 

 

Yes, a slow pattern change? Maybe something, a certain person was banging on about some eight to ten days ago.   Trauma for those who lived through the worst of the 90s and early 2000's weather as I did but this winter feels very different to my mind. Ask yourself, if the above chart verified (which I'd say it has a 70 to 80 percent chance of doing so) which route would our weather take by Christmas week? All a long time away in Meteorology speak, but I have a sneaky feeling, the colder than average card hands are being put in the deck post 13th December. 

Edited December 11, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

1 hour ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Reason 6 : No repeat of the horrendous flooding which impacted parts of the UK last year.

BANK. We don't make the weather but if Carlsberg did (no, I haven't been drinking) even they wouldn't produce a weather brew so foul or cruel as 2015's weather set up. Anyway, enough of my waffle. Eyes down for the bestest model run of the lot. 

Edited December 11, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Yes, a slow pattern change? Maybe something, a certain person was banging on about some eight to ten days ago.   Trauma for those who lived through the worst of the 90s and early 2000's weather as I did but this winter feels very different to my mind. Ask yourself, if the above chart verified (which I'd say it has a 70 to 80 percent chance of doing so) which route would it take by Christmas week? All a long time away in Meteorology speak, but I have a sneaky feeling, the colder than average card hands are being put in the deck post 13th December. 

Well I hope your right, but I can't see anything cold in the output at all right now for the foreseeable, which includes Christmas. By cold I mean deep cold or snow chances not just on hills

[IDO]

D10 GEFS; remarkable high confidence in the long wave pattern around the Atlantic sector: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

The UK in a milder sector as per normal, though a few members showing a cold pool of uppers over the UK: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=240

D10 spread compared to D12: 

The areas of uncertainty spreads, so definitely FI around that point and open to debate for sure.

[Ali1977]

28 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Ali, you say "the sooner we get rid of the high the better", why? It hasn't quite arrived upon our shores, tomorrow is average temperatures darn south in my neck of the woods and wet, you can KEEP it!

I say bring it on, why?

1. Reasoning one: We primarily keep the Atlantic fronts at bay.
2. Reasoning two: Temperatures are likely to slowly trend downwards as the High migrates Northwards and hopefully NNE'wards if I choose to be umm choosy.
3. Reasoning three: This would be a Godsend if it were to happen, for the wider environment, farming (think disease and pests) and the countryside's wildlife. It will bring some normalisation to our seasons for once too.
4. Reasoning four: It might result in abundant sunshine, yes that's me straw clutching. 
5. Final reason: I don't need one, it's the form horse to my mind, now.

I say, look East and North, not South and West in time for the final third of December.

 

Yes, dry and Frosty would be nice, but if we want some proper Winter weather it isn't coming with that high in place, the chance of it moving north look slim to non.

However I wouldn't want everyone to be flooded, blown away in a hurricane or blew off a cliff in a tornado,  but buried up to the waste in snow would be fine. 

GFS Control would do though.

Edited December 11, 2016 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, IDO said:

D10 GEFS; remarkable high confidence in the long wave pattern around the Atlantic sector: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=240

The UK in a milder sector as per normal, though a few members showing a cold pool of uppers over the UK: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=240

D10 spread compared to D12: 

The areas of uncertainty spreads, so definitely FI around that point and open to debate for sure.

How is that remarkable high confidence????   -   the biggest spread is in guess where - the Atlantic!!!

[Frosty.]

I like high pressure and surface cold so the Gfs 12z will do for me, at least it's not mild!

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes, dry and Frosty would be nice, but if we want some proper Winter weather it isn't coming with that high in place, the chance of it moving north look slim to non.

However I wouldn't want everyone to be flooded, blown away in a hurricane or blew off a cliff in a tornado,  but buried up to the waste in snow would be fine. 

GFS Control would do though.

That gfs control run is very much in keeping with GP's thoughts in terms of synoptics and timings. What we need to see now is the ecm op throw out a similar run tonight. If it does, it will be a very positive start to the evening

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How is that remarkable high confidence????   -   the biggest spread is in guess where - the Atlantic!!!

The D10 chart spread is the uncertainty with regard to the locale of the HP -v LP barrier so of course high uncertainty, a few hundred miles each way and you are in the midst of two different air masses. The D12 chart shows the spread moving east so the uncertainty increases as to the higher pressure over those areas. Marry those charts with the ensemble individual members and it will be obvious. 

[Dennis]

thats a nice sign for a snow setting

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

The D10 chart spread is the uncertainty with regard to the locale of the HP -v LP barrier so of course high uncertainty, a few hundred miles each way and you are in the midst of two different air masses. The D12 chart shows the spread moving east so the uncertainty increases as to the higher pressure over those areas. Marry those charts with the ensemble individual members and it will be obvious. 

A few hundred miles could also make a lot of difference to us.

[Paul_1978]

5 minutes ago, Dennis said:

thats a nice sign for a snow setting

So to understand this correctly, the "Control" is the raw run that has no nuances added to it (like the ensemble runs would)? 

And if so what is the "Operational"?

[IDO]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

A few hundred miles could also make a lot of difference to us.

Not with that Euro high slug; that is apart from the direction of the upper air feed.

We remain within the confines of the HP during that period with a high degree of confidence, 100% on the GEFS! 

[Dennis]

Just now, Paul_1978 said:

So to understand this correctly, the "Control" is the raw run that has no nuances added to it (like the ensemble runs would)? 

And if so what is the "Operational"?

True its not an ens - with all options to it

But its an idea to what the "computers" think