Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

[Frosty.]

if we can't get snow, the next best thing is frost and surface cold / faux cold, cold is cold as we saw the other week when average looking charts produced minus 9 celsius,  so a blocking high would be acceptable until hopefully we get lucky and by we I mean snow starved coldies!

[pdiddy]

Greenland 850s trending upwards from the 19th...

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, pdiddy said:

Greenland 850s trending upwards from the 19th...

I'm afraid, to my eyes, the trend appears to be simply a high degree of ensemble spread rather than a height increase.

Edited December 11, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Dennis]

o yes lets rock the winter 

[radiohead]

8 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

So to understand this correctly, the "Control" is the raw run that has no nuances added to it (like the ensemble runs would)? 

And if so what is the "Operational"?

The Control starts off with the same initial conditions as the operational run. The difference is that it runs at the same lower resolution as the GEFS members.

[Dennis]

3 minutes ago, Dennis said:

o yes lets rock the winter 

 

[pdiddy]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm afraid, to my eyes, the trend appears to be simply a high degree of ensemble spread rather than a height increase.

yes, but Spread all above average though (only one member below after 23rd)?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, pdiddy said:

yes, but Spread all above average though (only one member below after 23rd)?

Fair point, but they appear to be above the 30 year average at the moment, and it isn't doing much in terms of giving us cold weather in the UK.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, IDO said:

Not with that Euro high slug; that is apart from the direction of the upper air feed.

We remain within the confines of the HP during that period with a high degree of confidence, 100% on the GEFS! 

BTW on the overall situation for the next few weeks - on this occasion I am not disagreeing with you, I would go even further than you and suggest no cold well into Jan, you wouldn't be posting loads if there was any immediate chance of cold!!!    Its just that I wanted to clarify why you were saying the most certainty wrt area of placement of the longwave trough is the Atlantic but posting a day 10 chart with the biggest spread there.

 

12 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

So to understand this correctly, the "Control" is the raw run that has no nuances added to it (like the ensemble runs would)? 

And if so what is the "Operational"?

 Control - Yes   -   Operational is the GFS 12z run.  -   The difference between the control and the op is that they are run at different resolutions (control run at same resolution as individual ensemble members but with no tweaks) so hence different results - the starting data is the same on the control as the op.

[LRD]

2 minutes ago, pdiddy said:

yes, but Spread all above average though (only one member below after 23rd)?

Would be good to see pressure readings from ensemble members for that part of the world. Might be more telling than 850s perhaps?

[January Snowstorm]

15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

if we can't get snow, the next best thing is frost and surface cold / faux cold, 

That isn't necessarily everyone's opinion though a majority on here might agree.

I for one enjoy all types of weather.... storms, heavy rain etc. I don't think our obsession with the weather was formed looking out at anticyclonic weather in mid Dec.

 

 

[Chris K]

15 minutes ago, Dennis said:

o yes lets rock the winter 

Sorry, to many of us amateurs we have absolutely no idea what this is demonstrating? 

[SMU]

That chart means projeted Strat warming in about 6 days leading to huge reduction in 60N winds

very doubtful.^^^

Edited December 11, 2016 by Steve Murr

[snowwman]

Remarkable stuff from the GFS ensembles- everything from an Easterly to a Northerly!

[Mucka]

Not much going on at the moment in the MO but if we are to get any cold over Xmas I still think it will be from surprise blocking to the W rather than the E.

The GFS control and one or two other ensemble members oferf a whiff of hope in this direction.

 

 

 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Strat warming in about 8 days leading to huge reduction in 60N winds

very doubtful.

why is that in here steve? anyway given all the rutting today has anyone got or found a way to put some meat on the bone regarding any forecast looking at the next 7-10 days???.looks fairly dry and cool to me with a mlb being a fair bet.i would say that a change is needed from the north west and at least it leaves the way open for something slightly wintry.

[Johnp]

Is the ECM hinting at a 'back door' easterly after day ten?

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Is the ECM hinting at a 'back door' easterly after day ten?

No, sorry.

[bluearmy]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

No, sorry.

Well it's of note that the surface high becomes an extension of the Russian ridge with upper ridge over the Baltic. However, being a day 10 op chart if isn't of note! 

[Interitus]

No the chart doesn't show strat warming, it shows a fall in eddy momentum flux or wave activity in other words. The corresponding 60°N wind chart show the opposite of deceleration -

 

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well it's of note that the surface high becomes an extension of the Russian ridge with upper ridge over the Baltic. However, being a day 10 op chart if isn't of note! 

I agree , I thought it showed a show of strength from the HP, an improvement on this mornings run.............IMO but lets remember its at 240 hours

 

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well it's of note that the surface high becomes an extension of the Russian ridge with upper ridge over the Baltic. However, being a day 10 op chart if isn't of note! 

Not much use with the jet raging over the top. Bring it 1000 miles NW and a weaker jet at day 7 and I might bite. 

 

Edited December 11, 2016 by Mucka

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

That gfs control run is very much in keeping with GP's thoughts in terms of synoptics and timings. What we need to see now is the ecm op throw out a similar run tonight. If it does, it will be a very positive start to the evening

Well, the ecm day 10 starts to shows height rises to our north west. 

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Not much use with the jet raging over the top. Bring it 1000 miles NW and a weaker jet at day 7 and I might bite. 

 

The high to the east is showing signs of retrogression. This in turn will increase heights to our north west in the run up to xmas.

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Well, the ecm day 10 starts to shows height rises to our north west. 

Does it??