Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[knocker]

16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The eps are a tad further south than the 12z with the upper ridge anf anomoly which puts them bit closer to the last two ops. 

Still a probably slack contintental feed into the south of the uk at least 

Indeed blue. Much along the lines of the anomalies by the looks of things and at the moment just the question of the position of the surface high.

[West is Best]

1 hour ago, Ali1977 said:

A pretty good 240 mean from GEFS  with a few easterlies now showing, as the control run posted above shows.

 

 

39 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Maybe you could have noted the huge difference between yesterday's day 10 and today's rather than the 'easterly phrase' ?

 

 

 

2 hours ago, knocker said:

The GFS this morning in the ten day time frame

 

59 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

That lobe of lp on the ecm 240....

 

Out of curiosity why has this obsession with Day 10 aka T240 emerged in the last year or so? 

Back in the day T240 was about as useful as the infamous 'cut off' date from the 'Nuff Said' poster.

Is there something particular about T240 model watching that makes it stand out as against a more reliable timeframe like T144 or T96?

[knocker]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

 

Out of curiosity why has this obsession with Day 10 aka T240 emerged in the last year or so? 

Back in the day T240 was about as useful as the infamous 'cut off' date from the 'Nuff Said' poster.

Is there something particular about T240 model watching that makes it stand out as against a more reliable timeframe like T144 or T96?

Well I use ten days when looking at the morning GFS run because it's not an unreasonable time frame and it stays in line with the ecm. Also because I like to use the det. runs in conjunction with the anomalies for indications of future trends. But yes, to some extent it's pretty much an arbitrary choice

[Ali1977]

13 minutes ago, West is Best said:

 

 

 

 

Out of curiosity why has this obsession with Day 10 aka T240 emerged in the last year or so? 

Back in the day T240 was about as useful as the infamous 'cut off' date from the 'Nuff Said' poster.

Is there something particular about T240 model watching that makes it stand out as against a more reliable timeframe like T144 or T96?

Day 10 in line with the ECM and beyond then the anomalies are really useless!!

[Gibby]

Interestingly Day 10 Verification Stats show GFS outperforming ECM currently. Quite unusual.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

[Summer Sun]

Looking at UKMO we had a colder end to the week coming up as wind shift around to a northwesterly bringing some snow to some parts of the UK and some severe frosts

Into next week UKMO extended shows a bit more of a westerly flow so cloud would increase and temps would lift a bit

[MR EXTREMES]

4 minutes ago, West is Best said:

 

 

 

 

Out of curiosity why has this obsession with Day 10 aka T240 emerged in the last year or so? 

Back in the day T240 was about as useful as the infamous 'cut off' date from the 'Nuff Said' poster.

Is there something particular about T240 model watching that makes it stand out as against a more reliable timeframe like T144 or T96?

to be fair theres no point looking that far last nights run was rather exciting we have seen a climb down from the models this morning.

one thing to take note on though is gfs is awful for longterm.

ecm much better for finding trends but nowhere near immune to false dawns.

ukmo more so the raw fax is much much better saves shredded nerves.

theres clearly a weather addiction to snow starved fanatics like myself,

extreme my name extreme weather my game,

but in all honesty from what ive seen over the last few days then id be fairly confident in saying there will be snowfall just about anywhere in the uk except the extreme sw of the uk, but i see it being a short wintry spell but remaining below average with fairly chilly surface temps with heights around the sourthern half uk into france further on, but remaining under a cold lid until the models show a zonal flow this my ideas.

placement of this block will decide whether we get an easterly bit further north game on.

im expecting corrections of lower heights digging either further south or slightly further west which would also help aid in longer duration for the up coming cold blast.

but what struck me the most is this mornings gfs run absolutely odd, its not even a arctic flow. but gem ukmo and ecm have arctic flow,

even the jma has arctic flow and jma also has a close easterly.

so its correct the easterly is still there but slightly declined the idea since last nights runs 

[MR EXTREMES]

its also worth watching the jet stream around mid month we are now in a run of spotless solar output expect to see slow changes in the enso and mjo feedbacks that have been extremely muted most likely due to the more flatlined enso.

but im expecting to see better for wintry prospects with even qbo starting its transition to east qbo although this just part of some research ive been working on.

but happy to see a arctic blast its a start.

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

its also worth watching the jet stream around mid month we are now in a run of spotless solar output expect to see slow changes in the enso and mjo feedbacks that have been extremely muted most likely due to the more flatlined enso.

but im expecting to see better for wintry prospects with even qbo starting its transition to east qbo although this just part of some research ive been working on.

but happy to see a arctic blast its a start.

Morning,

what is the latest with the qbo? Has the transition to an east QBO started?

Cheers

[Summer Sun]

NOAA

POTENT SHORTWAVE REACHING THE WEST COAST TUESDAY ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/00Z GEFS MEAN/00Z ECMWF

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE DETAILS OVER THE PACIFIC MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MODEL WITH PRECISION, AS A FAST MOVING AND POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SLIDE UNDER THE RIDGE POSITION AND THEN UNDER THE BROAD SCALE GYRE OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE WAVE OF INTEREST WOULD THEN REACH CALIFORNIA/OREGON TUESDAY AND RACE QUICKLY TOWARD THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE GYRE PERHAPS STABLES OUT AND BEGINS TO DIP SOUTHWARD AS A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH. THE NAM APPEARS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THIS, WHEREAS THE UKMET IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER.

PREFERENCE: 00Z GEFS MEAN/12Z EC MEAN

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THERE IS A SLIGHT STREAM SEPARATION EVIDENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, WITH FLOW OF PACIFIC ORIGIN CROSSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE COUNTRY, AND SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH EMANATE FROM THE ARCTIC DROPPING TOWARD MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA AND THEN TURNING EASTWARD. THESE SHORTWAVES ORIGINATE OVER THE ARCTIC AND ARE OF SUCH A SHORT WAVELENGTH INITIALLY THAT THE OPERATIONAL MODELS MAY STRUGGLE TO HANDLE THEM PROPERLY. THE NAM AND UKMET ARE SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA TUESDAY EVENING, AND THE GFS IS FASTER. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, ENOUGH MODEL SPREAD EXISTS TO JUSTIFY USE OF THE GEFS MEAN AND EC MEAN.

[bluearmy]

The uncertainty increases in the week 2 solution re the euro heights and how they dissipate or perhaps even strengthen, especially surface depressions which are not usually well modelled imo 

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

Reading some of the comments this morning I thought the cold snap must have been cancelled..but no its still there for the second half of this week and it will be turning much colder from midweek from the NW with increasingly wintry showers with snow gradually to lower levels, night frosts and ice..and due to the strengthening NNWly winds, feeling increasingly bitterly cold, feeling sub zero in fact..

[chris55]

Conflicting signals from the models this morning.

GFS 00z Op was nearly the mildest throughout the entire run for London 2meter temps within the ensembles. And there are some Easterly flows in there from the 15th, which were not there yesterday

ECM ensembles, for Deblit at least, remain very cold, with the Control in the freezer right till the end, operational synopticly shows an easterly is still very much a viable option.

The main fly in the ointment is the UKMO has moved away from the colder solution more towards yesterday's GFS.

So not a very clear picture from the 00z suites, with ECM the best for a continuation of the cold.

 

 

 

[TEITS]

What happens in a relatively small area of the globe i.e Iceland to S tip of Greenland, has massive implications for the pattern in the short, medium, long range. If the ridge of HP is able to ridge far enough NE then not only does this increase the chances of an E,ly but changes the possible pattern afterwards. If the high is far enough N then any future intrusions from the Atlantic could possibly go under the high rather than over the top. This would then allow the high pressure to extend even further W. However further S like the models are showing means that whilst S parts of the UK are cold at first eventually the milder W,lys would return as the atlantic low pressures are more likely to go over the top.

At the moment I favour the cold at first before becoming milder which is what I said yesterday. This is because I believe the high will not be far enough NE. However my confidence is low and very easily we could be looking at a very different set of charts in F.I due to what happens around Iceland/Greenland. The ensembles, teleconnections, anomalies are worthless when such a fine margin is involved!

Edited January 9, 2017 by Osbourne One-Nil

[SLEETY]

1 hour ago, West is Best said:

 

 

 

 

Out of curiosity why has this obsession with Day 10 aka T240 emerged in the last year or so? 

Back in the day T240 was about as useful as the infamous 'cut off' date from the 'Nuff Said' poster.

Is there something particular about T240 model watching that makes it stand out as against a more reliable timeframe like T144 or T96?

 No it's still useless ,and reliability woeful ,why people still use that far ahead to make a forecast is beyond me

[karlos1983]

What appears clear to me this morning following the overnight runs is that the GFS seems to have had a better handle on sw development upstream, which as we all know has a big impact downstream/BI. Now the Euro's seem to be reluctantly edging more towards the GFS. Kudos GFS. No doubt that we will get a cold outbreak from the North later this week, but it seems to me, like many of these events as we get closer to +0, it's longevity decreases. still time for change if you like an underdog, but experience must tell us that when the GFS doesn't budge and the Euro's start to climb down, it's not likely they will revert. I am of course hoping they do, as I am a disgruntled, deprived coldie! 

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by karlos1983

[frosty ground]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

What appears clear to me this morning following the overnight runs is that the GFS seems to have had a better handle on sw development upstream, which as we all know has a big affect downstream/BI. Now the Euro's seem to be reluctantly edging more towards the GFS. Kudos GFS. No doubt that we will get a cold outbreak from the North later this week, but it seems to me, like many of these events as we get closer to +0, it's longevity decreases. still time for change if you like an underdog, but experience must tell us that when the GFS doesn't budge and the Euro's start to climb down, it's not likely they will revert. I am of course hoping they do, as I am a disgruntled, deprived coldie! 

 

I think all models are moving to a consensus..... The GFS Op being the most progressive this morning which will probably turn out wrong as a high sits over the UK. 

[Ravelin]

GFS 06z output stalled on Meteociel? I can only see up to 24hr so far.

Maybe the GFS is considering a swing the the ECM (wishful thinking) and is reluctant to display it's shame?

[Summer Sun]

1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

GFS 06z output stalled on Meteociel? I can only see up to 24hr so far.

Maybe the GFS is considering a swing the the ECM (wishful thinking) and is reluctant to display it's shame?

 

Running fine on wetterzentral

[booferking]

The low around Greenland looks to be held back more on this run.

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by booferking

[Weathizard]

I'm noticing minute changes each run on the GFS: every run the initial northerly shot seems to get a little more potent and the ridging a little sharper. Not significant changes but it shows you nothing can be taken for granted with shortwave around greenland even 3 days out a tiny change could lead to an easterly situation unfolding.

At least we are in the hat this time with a chance.

[Summer Sun]

Looking good for western parts on Thursday especially NW Scotland

[Mucka]

No sign of a ridge on 06z 

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

No sign of a ridge on 06z 

just a slider instead.

[weirpig]

Gfs on Meteociel  seems to be updating in real time!   probably still be wrong.