Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[SMU]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Not much change  at 78 Steve,there is slightly more ridging and slightly a bit more of a gap between the lows though,small changes big impacts further down the line,maybe.

Theres 3 key changes at 90 all moving to the UKMO ....

may not be the whole 9 yards but look at the UK flow @90 v the 12z 96....

[SnOwFeSt]

Minor changes on 18z, but the changes are in the right direction. A little more ridging will hopefully make a large difference down the line. Another 48 hours to churn out before the picture becomes clearer.

 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Theres 3 key changes at 90 all moving to the UKMO ....

may not be the whole 9 yards but look at the UK flow @90 v the 12z 96....

Yes and it's much more noticeable comparing 102 v 108 12z, step in the right direction for sure.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Theres 3 key changes at 90 all moving to the UKMO ....

may not be the whole 9 yards but look at the UK flow @90 v the 12z 96....

Yes - for starters it brings people further South West into the equation for heavier snow showers in the short term and will have a bigger impact down the line on the overall pattern wrt how high any MLB can get.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Theres 3 key changes at 90 all moving to the UKMO ....

may not be the whole 9 yards but look at the UK flow @90 v the 12z 96....

Granted,the low N of Newfoundland is backed further west at 96 too

also i have just noticed is that there is a kink in the flow just east of Iceland,should trend the N flow further west.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[Dennis]

GFS18z

[radiohead]

Look at the difference at the southern tip of Greenland at 102 compared to the 12Z. A definite step in the right direction on this run even if it doesn't end up fully switching to the ECM.

[frosty ground]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

Yes and it's much more noticeable comparing 102 v 108 12z, step in the right direction for sure.

It looks like the low pressure sat above the Atlantic high has merged with the euro low rather than  the Canadian one.... upside is better a Ridge and less emergent heading over the top

[Allseasons-Si]

At 108 hrs it develops that low mid Atlantic what the ukmo showed this morning

[radiohead]

Still critical differences with UKMO...Both of these cannot be right. Who will back down? I think we will know in the morning.

 

[SMU]

So all of the small changes have added up to a movement of the jet at 114 v 120

note the 120 12z flat, the 114 18z starting to loop-

[Mucka]

 

GFS/ECM/UKMO it is a minor step toward ECM but a long way to go. (in relative terms, in actuality it can be covered in increnemntal changes over a few runs)

Edited January 8, 2017 by Mucka

[samadamsuk]

Hey all,

 

Not sure I have the best link here - IU can only see up to t96 - if there is less cyclogenesys south of Greenland at t108+ though, that's a good sign that we'll have a full house imo

[frosty ground]

Almost looks like a slider 

[SMU]

Anyone notice the difference yet!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

Slider alert at 138hrs,that low is more neg tilted than the 12z hitting at least -4 uppers on this run

Scandy high after this shortwave?

 

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[frosty ground]

Yep a slider cold to the east of the boundary.... nightmare for forecasting 

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Anyone notice the difference yet!!!

Heading the right way Steve but we need it to continue "correcting" for a few runs before seeing a worthwhile ridge - barring a complete flip tomorrow morning.

After that ECM ensemble suit it is all good news this evening.

[swfc]

decent ridging towards scan at 150 hrs on the gfs 18z.small but subtle changes!!!

[snowbob]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

decent ridging towards scan at 150 hrs on the gfs 18z.small but subtle changes!!!

Enough change to fall inline by tomorrow

gfs backtrack

[Allseasons-Si]

We are getting there,expect more corrections west tomorrow,all in all a good day for upgrades

night guys.

[SMU]

12 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Heading the right way Steve but we need it to continue "correcting" for a few runs before seeing a worthwhile ridge - barring a complete flip tomorrow morning.

After that ECM ensemble suit it is all good news this evening.

Well its very significant at 168 in just 1 run.

Take NE england for example 6 degrees colder

 

[tight isobar]

Gfs 18..gfs 12...

Already better alignment of heights at Scandinavia. .

Small steps but v-positive ones..-towards the ecm 

[radiohead]

18Z is not very different from the 12Z by T180 really...but small steps in the right way.

Edited January 8, 2017 by radiohead

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well its very significant at 168 in just 1 run.

Take NE england for example 6 degrees colder

 

 

Yeah makes a big difference over just a few hours in prolonging cold. I really mean the actual amplification though if we want an Easterly. 

I do see the significance of the changes you are outlining and same corrections we would have a nice ridge by tomorrow's 12z.

Do you fancy a continuation of slow corrections or a complete flip tomorrow?

Edited January 8, 2017 by Mucka