Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Snowy L]

6 minutes ago, Bolton67 said:

You live at sea level.. 9/10 you're going to get rain rather than snow.. 

Every winter I remember I've had at least one snow event, even through the rubbish late nineties/early 2000s. To go from that to zero in the last 4 is disgraceful. Anyway this is massively off topic.

This is looking like an unstable Northerly so hopefully opportunities for snow for much of the UK if this were to materialise.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/BRAEU_120.gif

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Snowy L

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Does it really matter? Not one jot too me, I'm more interested what the models show in the morning and we go from there. You can't rule out the flatter GFS set up for sure but just going from experience  you have to favour the ECM/UKMO if albeit I dont think it will be as amplified as the 12Z UKMO run but that is just going from past experience.

Well that isn't good to hear from NOAA. Confidence average does not particularly suggest much uncertainty we're not dealing with FI here, so I'm afraid, we may see more of a climb down to GFS but not entirely in the morning output. Nonetheless a 3 day cold wintry period is in the bank - risk of wintriness pretty much anywhere away from extreme SW, showers going well inland, turning increasingly to snow by Wednesday across the northern half of the country, snow giving parameters transferring southwards to all parts by Thurs/Fri, then wintry risk emphasise goes to eastern England by the arrival of the weekend. A wintry outlook.

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended (15th) shows high-pressure edging back in from the west still chilly at the surface I would think certainly to start with

maybe if there had been a day 7 ukmo earlier, this place would have been less excited! 

[ANYWEATHER]

4 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

I think many, me included, couldn't care less about cold and frosty and just want to see snow. ECM after 168 is colder than GFS, but the exact same when it comes to chances of snow - 0%. Snow drought now closing in on 4 winters for me, of course people will be annoyed. If cold and dry is your thing, then yes, ECM is much better than the GFS.

I think folks look to far ahead ok, including me!!! but forget whats coming to them on there doorstep. Sod the ten day range , just look whats staring you in the face, YES a Potent cold spell . The so called "Snow Plough" will make an appearance this week and it will cause disruption.....

[ghoneym]

Wednesday into Thursday brings some strong gales and plenty of rain to the far North and West of Scotland, the Jet in overdrive for a short time before the the cold weather approaches into next weekend.

 

 

  

 

[Geordiesnow]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

maybe if there had been a day 7 ukmo earlier, this place would have been less excited! 

I dont understand this at all because upto 144 hours, the UKMO is the best out of the lot regarding the cold/snow potential, yes if your looking for an easterly maybe that 168 hour chart is a tad dissapointing however the easterly risk is only a small risk at this stage and by no means a gurantee. I think high pressure eventually trying to nose in could be the form horse and ill settle for that for now really.

For once, all the 'good stuff' is at Days 4-6 instead of Day 10

[Paul]

Please can chat about will it won't it snow in various parts of the country, along with chat about what weather you may or may not be interested in go over into the banter thread to allow the model discussion to continue in here. Thanks.

[snowbob]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

maybe if there had been a day 7 ukmo earlier, this place would have been less excited! 

Maybe so but the forecast I watched from the professionals sugests to me that this is no way a done deal today with the models.

This scenario has human input written all over it.

dont think we will even know the real scale with the 0z

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by snowbob

[Mark wheeler]

12 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

maybe if there had been a day 7 ukmo earlier, this place would have been less excited! 

Blue can you elaborate please . I don't see why ? . A serious question.

on another note if I may . I do not often post in here because I feel I do not understand charts enough to do so especially quickly as a run comes out. However I feel others with the same knowledge or less continue to guess each run as they come out only to be corrected by the more knowledgeable. I would like to request to some ( you know who you are , just think about it.) to stop and leave this thread to run smoothly. Really appreciate the contributions of many .

Cheers Mark

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Blue can you elaborate please . I don't see why ? . A serious question.

on another note if I may . I do not often post in here because I feel I do not understand charts enough to do so especially quickly as a run comes out. However I feel others with the same knowledge or less continue to guess each run as they come out only to be corrected by the more knowledgeable. I would like to request to some ( you know who you are , just think about it.) to stop and leave this thread to run smoothly. Really appreciate the contributions of many .

Cheers Mark

Doesn't look amplified in the right axis to throw a scandi ridge far enough north

the eps are very much in line with the ec op and at days 9/10 slightly further north with the MLB as we thought they might be 

[radiohead]

Good news. Clearer signal for a Scandi High / easterly setup on the 12Z ECM ENS mean compared to the 0Z ENS mean.

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ens

      

      

 

In the end the 12z suite is probably the best so far, a north to north westerly before high pressure builds across northern Europe with low heights to our south east. An easterly is certainly possible within the next ten days though dry and cold is the most likely solution.

Edited January 8, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Allseasons-Si]

 look at the ecm mean at 216 compared to this mornings 240 hrs

this evenings 240 hrs,i will take that that thankyou

 

[snowbob]

7 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Blue can you elaborate please . I don't see why ? . A serious question.

on another note if I may . I do not often post in here because I feel I do not understand charts enough to do so especially quickly as a run comes out. However I feel others with the same knowledge or less continue to guess each run as they come out only to be corrected by the more knowledgeable. I would like to request to some ( you know who you are , just think about it.) to stop and leave this thread to run smoothly. Really appreciate the contributions of many .

Cheers Mark

Hi mark 

you should post what you think.

as long as it's model related in this particular thread.

(which this isn't sorry mods)

nearly all the fantastic posters in here would not pick on your posts.

I have been posting on here for about 5 years and I don't know half the science to do with our weather as some members on here, but honestly they have taught me so much.

great forum 

great members

and great mods

Edited January 8, 2017 by snowbob

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Doesn't look amplified in the right axis to throw a scandi ridge far enough north

the eps are very much in line with the ec op and at days 9/10 slightly further north with the MLB as we thought they might be 

Definitely the scope for a slightly higher latitude block within that ensemble mean...

[radiohead]

Looking at uppers over Germany on Day 10, 12Z ECM Op run was a mild outlier.

[chris55]

That 240 mean from ECM caught my eye. The high anomaly is centred well north. Interesting....

[Summer Sun]

 

[Ali1977]

Well I did say imagine if the ECM OP was a mild outlier, and it is...ha

[Nick F]

Wouldn't rule out a Scandi high re-appearing again on EC over next few days, 12z EPS mean suggests a stronger signal from the mean and anomaly for the ridge NE over Scandi than the last/recent runs days 10-13, before the ridge NE signal subsides thereafter.

What we need to see for the Scandi high is:

1. More of a negative tilt to the trough over the Atlantic invof Azores - which means it's more likely to eventually undercut any ridge building NE over UK and Scandi

2. Less energy / troughing extending east from Greenland over Svalbard

3. Troughing / CAA extending further SW / stronger across Europe beneath any ridge that builds NE

In any case, 12z EPS certainly looking like doors shut to Atlantic mobility until at least day 14.

 

Edited January 8, 2017 by Nick F

[SMU]

Eyes down for the 18z - after a spectacular ECM mean alligned to the UKMO expect a significant GFS backtrack....

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Eyes down for the 18z - after a spectacular ECM mean alligned to the UKMO expect a significant GFS backtrack....

Im blinkin desperate to see a GFS backtrack steve! Even a halfway house will keep us cold until sunday,hand on heart i'd happily take that right now!

[tight isobar]

Yup' 

As SM states 18z gfs may well start to revert. .and have similar signals of the ecm.

And hopefully (although atm a-tad early)..signal for height alignment swinging back at/around Scandinavia. ..

Although maybe a stronger signal on tomorrow s suites.

Will be an interesting run this..18z gfs

[bluearmy]

The ec spreads (heights and uppers) are supportive of a solution closer to the 00z run than the 12z. The 00z run might revert back  and still allow an easterly 

Edited January 8, 2017 by bluearmy

[Backtrack]

UKMO seems of been the form horse when it comes to sticking to guns. I feel like the GFS is out on it's own- but then of course we've been here before where the Euros have backed toward the GFS.

Strikes me as unusual though that Exeter aren't backing the ECM or their own model. 18Z crucial