Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[radiohead]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Quite a dry easterly though by the looks of it! No complaints obviously but looks predominantly dry for the majority of the uk

It's turning less dry...

[Met4Cast]

So after days of the GFS not being interested, it's gone the whole way and is even introducing undercutting to the table. Classic!

BOOM chart if ever I saw one.

[snowray]

12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

That is a very cold run for us down south, I think that flow would also bring in some Thames streamers off the North sea

This is exactly the sort of chart that would indeed produce the fabled Thames Streamer. Looks pretty dry at times and I would have expected much lower uppers to our East, but none the less huge potential for most of us there, particularly in the East and South initially at least.

Edited January 10, 2017 by snowray

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

It's turning less dry...

Indeed it is......


12 hours later


Are we going to see a flip in the ensembles? 

Edited January 10, 2017 by frosty ground

[nick sussex]

Just now, Nick F said:

Come on Nick, you are talking like a man who has not recovered from the previous traumas of easterlies failed ... we've come on a long way with GFS since only very recent zonal express runs.

The downside of the 06z Scandi high is that it's only the south that benefits from deep cold and only then the  far SE that gets snow showers. But it's a step in the right direction and a far cry from what was being served up early yesterday's 00z suite - especially GFS. At last we have GFS on board with ECM, just hope that ECM doesn't climb down on the 12z from showing a Scandi high - as it will be traumatic!

It's true I haven't recovered! lol And then with Matt H's tweet re all 51 ensemble members supporting some Scandi blocking I've now booked an emergency appointment with my therapist who has only just managed to repair the emotional trauma of the previous easterly failures.

And now my OCD re shortwaves is going to go into overdrive! help!

[radiohead]

Absolutely fantastic from the 06Z GFS here.

[frosty ground]

Just now, radiohead said:

Absolutely fantastic from the 06Z GFS here.

Looks like a GH will form later..... Bit early for the pub run!

[summer blizzard]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

It's turning less dry...

 

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

This is exactly the sort of chart that would indeed produce the fabled Thames Streamer. Looks pretty fry and I would have expected even lower uppers to our East, but none the less huge potential for most of us there, particularly in the East and South iniyially at least.

Pressure out to day 9 is still over 1030mb. It will be freezing and you may get showers along the coast but the atmosphere will be far too stable to produce a streamer. 

The low is undercutting though so look for that signal to improve. 

[bradymk]

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

....At last we have GFS on board with ECM, just hope that ECM doesn't climb down on the 12z from showing a Scandi high - as it will be traumatic!

Have a feeling we need to get to the 00z runs tomorrow with them both still showing the easterly before I can get previous failings out of my head. Looking very promising now though, I would expect GEFS will follow the op now this suite with a lot of easterly members. Regardless of the easterly, we have Thursday and Friday first anyway! Let's hope Thursday is the start of a few cold weeks coming up! 

Pattern on the 6z if it established would be very hard to shift that's for sure

[radiohead]

It gets better!

And better....

Edited January 10, 2017 by radiohead

[tight isobar]

My oh my text book stuff!!..

Eye catching scandi heights. .plus easterly engagement. ..a marriage made in coldie heaven. ...

And sign of waa at Greenland. 

[Seasonality]

Could be a good snow event for Southern England at this juncture.

 

[Ali1977]

So cold phased out by day 12, that a pretty long cold spell with plenty of snow potential...this could still get better as a greeny high is now forming!!! awesome

Edited January 10, 2017 by Ali1977

[loafer]

7 minutes ago, stewfox said:

 

Back edge rain for some has never been that popular on here ??

 

If the GFS continues to move towards the ECM, the uppers are cold enough over most of the UK for snow.

Edited January 10, 2017 by loafer

[stewfox]

1 minute ago, loafer said:

If the GFS continues to move towards the ECM, the uppers are cold enough over most of the UK for snow.

I agree and i have removed my post GFS 6z a upgrade

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

So cold phased out by day 12, that a pretty long cold spell with plenty of snow potential...this could still get better.

I wouldn't worry about the uppers on Day 12! Safe to say that will change on the 12Z regardless.

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

My oh my text book stuff!!..

Eye catching scandi heights. .plus easterly engagement. ..a marriage made in coldie heaven. ...

And sign of waa at Greenland.

Interesting you should say that, the MJO signal using the one with reduced interference shows that into phase 7 after mid month, still at lowish amplitude but it does seem that the MJO might be waking up after taking a month long holiday. Preferably we don't want any retrogression until we've had the full easterly.

[summer blizzard]

Heights shifting to Greenland, northerly (perhaps even north easterly) incoming. 

[Seasonality]

Just now, radiohead said:

I wouldn't worry about the uppers on Day 12! Safe to say that will change on the 12Z regardless.

Indeed, UK cold fans will be foaming at the mouth with the 00z ECM combined with this epic 06z. If this implodes I fear for the sanity of some.

[nick sussex]

Just for a bit of fun and not to be taken too literally heres the composite for the MJO phase 7:

If the weather Gods were kind to us and decided to compensate for recent rubbish winters the best transition would be something like the GFS trend, whereby you get low pressure disrupting under the block, the high retrogresses back westwards and we could get some pressure rise over Greenland with troughing developing over Scandi.

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by nick sussex

[winterof79]

Could someone please link me to GPs previous post regarding mid Jan "End if world" cold.I have a feeling he nailed a prediction

Thanks in advance

[Singularity]

  

Instability has indeed improved as of day 10 - ties in with the old mantra 'get the cold in and the snow will follow' - though ironically a fair few will have seen snow prior to the continental version of the cold weather arriving 

Great to see the stratospheric support for the blocking to our NE. If the troposphere and stratosphere become well-coupled, it will take something monstrous to shift the block from wherever it sets up. I'm still having to apply caution regarding final positioning but for a change the majority vote is strongly in favour of a good position - and orientation for that matter - for at least the south to benefit.

Oddly enough, next week is starting to look less unclear than the weekend due to that shortwave GFS keeps pushing through the upper ridge.

[Weathizard]

Nearly a Holy grail run from the GFS evolution wise.. it's been dragged with its tail between its legs.

BUT, I know there's always one of those on these islands seriously massive caution must be urged - we've seen easterlies capitulate within t72/96 so don't take anything as gospel, there is a reason that easterlies are like hens teeth.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Weathizard

[West is Best]

Lol. GFS buckles and, typically, then goes all Armageddon on us. Not their finest hour, it has to be said.

 

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Nearly a Holy grail run from the GFS evolution wise.. it's been dragged with its tail between its legs.

BUT, I know there's always one of those on these islands seriously massive caution must be urged - we've seen easterlies capitulate within t72/96 so don't take anything as gospel, there is a reason that easterlies are like hens teeth.

I'm really in two minds now about what evolution would get us to the best point. The ECM is far safer, the GFS less but that type of evolution with the shortwave cutting se'wards and ridge building in from the ne generally has the better chance of the high further north. But its just this shortwave business which is driving me a bit nuts!

Perhaps we should have a thread vote? In the interests of model democracy I'll support which solution is the winner and cheer it on!

Edited January 10, 2017 by nick sussex