Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

It already is 

Indeed, prolongs the cold to 144 and we'll find out in the next few mins whether 168 is a real stunner....

[Seasonality]

ECM vs UKMO vs GFS at 144h. Quite similiar. But ECM has initial cold air from Euro trough closest to UK. Euros look set to push north more strongly, the GFS remains too far south for the UK but still allows surface cold. Suspect ecm will be nice.

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Seasonality

[knocker]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed, prolongs the cold to 144 and we'll find out in the next few mins whether 168 is a real stunner....

The ecm has a little wave running south to be over Cornwall 06 Monday.

Edited January 10, 2017 by knocker

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, knocker said:

The ecm has a little wave running south to be over Cornwall 06 Monday.

Are you going to be snowed in Knocker

[Seasonality]

Just now, knocker said:

The ecm has a little wave running south to be over Cornwall 06 Monday.

Sorry knocker

Some coldies will need to change their trousers after this run. Stunner at 168

[Jonan92]

Lovely map at T168 for the Basque Country, that's snow at sea level here

[knocker]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Are you going to be snowed in Knocker

No chance as Joan the Wad is on the case

[Mucka]

It is a thing of beauty but could of been even better if those two Atlantic lows had phased already. That would slow the pattern and prevent energy running over the top, could even reamplify and undercut in a perfect world but I will settle for this I suppose. 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Mucka

[Polar Maritime]

Very nice ECM 168 this morning, With a slack Easterly off the continent. 192 even better..

Edited January 10, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[mother nature rocks]

There really is no stopping this ECM run. The cold just keeps on coming!!!!!

[feb1991blizzard]

I wonder what the eps will say, its unusual for the op not to have overall majority backing as we are talking short lead times for the setup now.

[Cheshire Freeze]

192-

Snow possibly pushing slowly W across England...bitterly cold

[That ECM]

Your a greedy fella mucka!!ECM has been very consistent. Let's hope it's right!! 

Edited January 10, 2017 by That ECM

[Ice Day]

Beauty at 192.  Look at those uppers.

I could gaze lovingly at these charts until the 12zs.  Damn you work!!!!!

[Polar Maritime]

-11 uppers to the S/E with most of the UK cold not just the South as per last run..

Edited January 10, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

192-

Snow possibly pushing slowly W across England...bitterly cold

Fantastic but imagine that low to our NW being where the low to the SW is. If they phased that low isn't there and instead we have a nicely shaped Atlantic trough ready to renew WAA NE.

Something to watch for if the other models get on board out to 144 but I think peeps will be rightly more wrapped up in the cold we have got for now. Plenty to look forward to.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Mucka

[mountain shadow]

Crank up the servers its going to be busy!!!!!

[Polar Maritime]

A wonderful chart indeed, Very cold surface temps.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

A wonderful chart indeed, Very cold surface temps.

 

Cold uppers, light winds, continental drift, snow on the ground?....-15 easily possible in places

Edited January 10, 2017 by CreweCold

[Seasonality]

Cold run if you're planning a ski trip to the Alps next week.

[Mucka]

7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Your a greedy fella mucka!!ECM has been very consistent. Let's hope it's right!! 

Definitely. It has been such a long wait for cold we may as well go the whole hog. 

It is actually reasonable analysis though because if the ECM is right then we could be on the brink of being locked into a cold pattern of a couple of weeks if we get a favourable upstream pattern from 144..

[karlos1983]

Amazing stuff! What a brilliant overnight set of models. Oh and @Mucka that's what I meant by could be 

so today bucks the trend of previous mornings outputs being downgrades to the previous days 12z. 

Can't wait to see the ENS later on.

[mother nature rocks]

With heights like this to the east and notoriously hard to budge, surely the LP in mid Atlantic would slide and replace low over central Med?? 

[Stozzy]

12 hours ago, abbie123 said:

SE ENGLAND STAYING COLD ..

Edited January 10, 2017 by Stozzy

[Seasonality]

ECM massage has happy ending. Cold Cold Cold.