Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[snowbob]

@Steve Murr

just a thought that the models are really struggling with the brutal cold to the east and the Ecm model is the only one slowly getting to grips with it.

could it really be that simple

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by snowbob
Spelling like a toddler

[frosty ground]

6 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes it just didn't happen, sitting firm. How can two powerful models get it completely different so close - half way between won't be that good so I hope the GFS op is way out early on from its ENS - I feel a depressing morning in here though with the ECM again backing down.

It's different by 144

[radiohead]

18Z GFS is more amplified than the 12Z, looks like a step towards the ECM at T144 to me.

[SMU]

13 minutes ago, snowbob said:

@Steve Murr

just a thought that the models are really struggling with the brutal cold to the east and the Ecm model is the only ones  slowly getting to grips with it.

could it really be that simple

 

Im afraid it isnt the cold thats effecting the runs its all the way west in the pacific at around T36-60 with how fast the energy is & how far the low digs south towards texas before accelerating North / North east T60-84

relating to the 18z @ 150 its a total Country mile different to 12z - a massive swing to amplified...

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

That would annoy me though as it is a mild ridge with a quick thaw. If it gave a roaring Easterly later I guess I could forgive it

I doubt we'll get the roaring easterly but at least its begrudgingly moved towards the ECM, I'm now bored of the GFS its been hopeless for the last week upstream. NCEP's desperate attempt to make it feel good by thinking it had the right pattern should stick to their Make The GFS Great Again merchandising and leave the modelling to the Europeans! lol

[john mac]

GFS as always dragging its heals!!! At least it's making its move at last!!

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

18Z GFS is more amplified than the 12Z, looks like a step towards the ECM at T144 to me.

Yes first signs to our N/E

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

18Z GFS is more amplified than the 12Z, looks like a step towards the ECM at T144 to me.

Later on it may be more amplified and slightly more towards ECM but in getting there it quickly loses the Northerly ad cold uppers which the ECM doesn't. To be honest though after the last few years seeing the potential of snow in the next few days just about anywhere looks good to me - but many will be hoping the cold snap turns into a freeze from the East as not all will get snow from this weeks cold.

[Met4Cast]

GFS 18z is definitely more amplified and a step towards the UKMO/ECO outputs. I suspect overnight we'll see it swing all the way towards them. ECM Ensembles have been trending colder over the last couple of days and the ECM op has been rock solid. With increasing GFS ensemble support for the ECM and the UKMO also in agreement and given the timeframes we're talking about now, the GFS must be calling this wrong.

Still don't think we'll see the raging Easterly the ECM is showing tonight, most likely outcome for me is a light Easterly flow with high pressure over the UK, very low minima and hard widespread frosts but unfortunately very dry. ECM is just about the best we can hope for.

[swfc]

the 18z is only out 160 hrs there is no easterly on ecm at this time??? 18 z gfs is a big improvement give it time!!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

As has been pointed out, fairly major differences at 162 hrs...though not totally akin to ECM just yet!

Ridging further N and that little low Nr Svalbaard has gone which will be of importance later on

 

[radiohead]

The snow doesn't hang around long the 18Z GFS, unless you are in Scotland.

Friday morning Vs. Saturday night.

Heavy rain on Saturday with temperatures back into double digits by Sunday morning!

 

Let's hope it's just a teaser and the easterly will be the main event later....

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by radiohead

[Ravelin]

Mid range, GFS 12z V GFS 18z V ECM 12Z... 

  

No doubt about the GFS moving towards the ECM on that. 

[winterof79]

Low over Italy now appears ....next part of jigsaw it was not present earlier

Edited January 9, 2017 by winterof79

[Zakos]

]

ECM still better, but GFS finally smelling the coffee.

That ECM  chart has got to be one of the best anomalies ive seen at 168+ hours this winter, surely there is potential for a bitter easterly if this verifies? 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Zakos

[Pembroke Dangler]

could we get a Russian high link up in the next few frames??

[winterof79]

COMON

Thinking PROZAC sponsor GFS

Edited January 9, 2017 by winterof79

[Weathizard]

All the ingredients we need for our easterly are beginning to appear, however I still have a nagging feeling it will be a dry one, as we get wedged in a MLB easterly

[nick sussex]

Given the dodgy start to the GFS 18hrs run the fact it gets to that better set up around T192hrs should increase confidence that theres a growing signal for pressure to rise to the ne and develop low pressure over the northern Med.

The movement of the PV also seems to be gathering strong support. We just need a  bit of luck now which has gone AWOL for most of the winter so far.

[mother nature rocks]

Liking this update from Mr Cohen.

low pressure over Med, Scandi high. Showing on ECM and now getting there on GFS(at last) What could possibly go wrong?????

Edited January 9, 2017 by mother nature rocks

[Zakos]

Clear backtrack from the GFS today, always pushes atlantic into europe far too quickly. 

I never trust GFS when against ECM+UKMO with entrenched cold over europe.GFS is always trumped by these models in these setups.

 

[Eskimo]

If that high was about 500 miles further north...

[Cheshire Freeze]

One word...painstaking.

We need to squeeze just a little bit more initial amplification to get the high carved at a better latitude. Still, an improvement on the 12z run

[snowbob]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

All the ingredients we need for our easterly are beginning to appear, however I still have a nagging feeling it will be a dry one, as we get wedged in a MLB easterly

Never know if it will be a dry easterly till 0z

get the cold flow in and things always pop up

Edited January 9, 2017 by snowbob

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

COMON

Thinking PROZAC sponsor GFS

That doesnt exactly show anything of interest for those wanting snow should it verify. I think the charts are clearly showing a typical 2 to 3 day northerly/ north westerly outbreak with the possibility of high pressure re establishing itself shortly afterwards. We would need serious upgrades to see a snowier set up from day 8 onwards.