Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Amazing stuff! What a brilliant overnight set of models. Oh and @Mucka that's what I meant by could be 

so today bucks the trend of previous mornings outputs being downgrades to the previous days 12z. 

Can't wait to see the ENS later on.

LOL I know Karlos, I was just teasing

When I said "already is" I meant it could only go one way from there. All we have to do now is get there but fantastic consistency from ECM leading the GFS by the hand like its slow cousin.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Mucka

[Luke Attwood]

The ECM is great again this morning let's just hope its right. It looks very cold and increasingly snowy!

[knocker]

The ecm has a rather different interpretation to the GFS.. At T168 the ridge in eastern Europe starts building as the Azores ridging becomes squeezed and simultaneously the active upper low to the SE shots some energy NE and moves a little north which allows the surface high to set up further north over southern Norway. Thus a continental drift becomes an easterly. This very complicated scenario would bring some very cold temps to the UK over the latter part of the run. If it verifies of course.

[IDO]

No real change from the GEFS mean. We get an Atlantic wave that pushes NE before being flattened by the PV moving to our north. Variations on that theme but the ECM take not really supported to that coldie perspective. The GFS mean at D10:

Still a lot of movement needed to get to the ECM op pattern, but time to correct.

The ECM has zero support on the GEFS on how it keeps the PV from flattening the pattern. The ECM showing lots of amplification down stream and blows up the Russian high. This diverts the PV to the other side of the NH:

D6  D10

Really need to see this within the ens and cross-model otherwise I am not sure we can get such a cold setup?

The hi res model has that feature for the south as per GFS, though not on the ARPEGE. Very localised but potential for some snow:

Edited January 10, 2017 by IDO

[mb018538]

I'm pretty sure we'd start seeing some ice days in the east if the ECM verified....however it's still far too much in the distance to be certain. It only needs a slight shift in orientation (a la GFS) and we get nothing. Possibly on a knife edge!

[winterof79]

I know these have probably been posted but it's fast moving.This just highlights how fluid the situation is with the changes in these faxes.The last being the old one for 12z Friday

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by winterof79

[Team Jo]

There's a dedicated thread for commentary on BBC/Met forecasts, please could we refrain from one line imby posts in here  

carry on!

 

[Seasonality]

1 minute ago, Team Jo said:

There's a dedicated thread for commentary on BBC/Met forecasts, please could we refrain from one line imby posts in here  

carry on!

 

What are your thoughts on the latest model drama? ECM cold or GFS dullness? 

[cyclonic happiness]

Lets all hope the GFS is wrong and that the ECM wins this time. We still haven't got cross model agreement even in the near term, it makes me a bit nervous for this 'cold snap/cold spell'.

I'll wait until Thursday before I believe it 

[Team Jo]

8 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

What are your thoughts on the latest model drama? ECM cold or GFS dullness? 

Personally? I'd love the ECM to pull this out of the bag!

[knocker]

7 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

Personally? I'd love the ECM to pull this out of the bag!

Your sacked, effective immediately. Extreme bias shown by MODS

[minus 9]

47 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Cold run if you're planning a ski trip to the Alps next week.

Will be in Austria next week. Think I will need the thermals. Great ecm and ukmo if you like cold which most of us do.

[Gavin Hannah]

ECM .. What have you done   the GFS setup looks broadly similar at t.216 t.240 I think. North easterly flow bringing colder temps and snow. The questions is where will this HP be setting up shop?  Nervous few days coming up I suspect.

[Penrith Snow]

I just can't believe it, if ECM is correct then we will be talking about the 'surprise' easterly for years! Note on the ECM latter frames that the it's a long fetch easterly as well although at a rather more southerly latitude than is ideal if I was being picky. 

Ironic that this has turned up just two days after the MetO dropped its easterly chance on the MRF.

For a change the south east will be the place to be next week with Kent looking at a whiteout again if this verifys, it's been long time since such an event occurred. Not fantastic for my location so I better get the snow in on Thursday.

I am truly amazed.

Andy

[mb018538]

Trouble is, there isn't any synoptic that is perfect for everyone! PM NW'erlies usually just mean snow over high ground, parts of Scotland and the NW...and are often very short lived by nature. 
Straight northerlies usually leave many inland areas dry....and easterlies can often be dry out west. What I will say though, is that an easterly is the best for potential longevity and cold....so bring on that ECM outcome!

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

I just can't believe it, if ECM is correct then we will be talking about the 'surprise' easterly for years! Note on the ECM latter frames that the it's a long fetch easterly as well although at a rather more southerly latitude than is ideal if I was being picky. 

Ironic that this has turned up just two days after the MetO dropped its easterly chance on the MRF.

For a change the south east will be the place to be next week with Kent looking at a whiteout again if this verifys, it's been long time since such an event occurred. Not fantastic for my location so I better get the snow in on Thursday.

I am truly amazed.

Andy

Surprise as in the one picked up by ec op at day 10 or surprise in that the extended ens weren't really showing it. I recall Ian mentioned glosea had some PC clusters a week or so ago but perhaps not this soon. only the most ardent GFS supporter would call this current direction of travel a surprise  

it is ironic re the 15/30 dayer but it is well before that timeframe and I remain of the opinion that the mention in the 30 dayer was related to potential SSW cluster on glosea. 

Edited January 10, 2017 by bluearmy

[MR EXTREMES]

as has been shown for sometime the gfs is pretty poor in its long range even this morning its haste shows.

ive got my money on the ecm ukmo and fax charts for shorter term.

because after the first wave of arctic cold from the north there will be more changes thats a cert.

i do believe there will be a scandi ridge and cut off low to our southeast but just enough to back colder air west, with the zonal train stating to slide under blocks establishing lower heights to the south with lows undercutting into france spain eventually and possibility of channel lows.

we will see the atmosphere respond to zero solar activity and a more weakened but south east tracking jet stream.

the models are starting to firm up the gfs is better than yesterdays,

but still believe it gets a little hacked of with shortwave developments and tries to rush things!

but the truth is both ecm and ukmo seem to slow things a bit, and in turn these two models are more realistic as blocks dont crumble sink or just get blasted away with ease so im sticking with ecm and ukmo.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Surprise as in the one picked up by ec op at day 10 or surprise in that the extended ens weren't really showing it. I recall Ian mentioned glosea had some PC clusters a week or so ago but perhaps not this soon. only the most ardent GFS supporter would call this current direction of travel a surprise  

. it is ironic re the 15/30 dayer but it is well before that timeframe and I remain of the opinion that the mention in the 30 dayer was related to potential SSW cluster on glosea. 

Definitely not surprised to see it showing on any model but surprised its getting towards 'reliable' timeframe, I admit if it verified as proper Easterly though, I will be having to do some boot licking on this thread.

It is even more ironic that we could be seeing the first signs of a warming at the top on the GFS now that the idea has been dropped!

f

[loafer]

Very interesting to see how the ECM holds the colder uppers over most of the UK, whilst the GFS sees them encroach and then tilt around an axis in the centre of the UK.

I wonder about the potential for a significant frontal snow event on Sunday if the ECM is right and the front stalls across the country. Where, of course, it stalls is too early to tell, but the GFS does seem to be moving towards the ECM this morning.

[Luke Attwood]

The signal is there for high pressure to move in then move east northeastward,the only confusion is that the gfs has it more east and south,rather then north and east like the ECM. This is crucial as to whether we get cold or not,we don't want the gfs to be correct as the Cold will escape us and filter down across Germany and France and northern Spain.this is usually what happens here sadly in the UK while we watch Europe freeze, we are stuck in mild southwesterly winds. So I do hope the ECM is correct with its positioning of the high.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Luke Attwood

[knocker]

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Surprise as in the one picked up by ec op at day 10 or surprise in that the extended ens weren't really showing it. I recall Ian mentioned glosea had some PC clusters a week or so ago but perhaps not this soon. only the most ardent GFS supporter would call this current direction of travel a surprise  

it is ironic re the 15/30 dayer but it is well before that timeframe and I remain of the opinion that the mention in the 30 dayer was related to potential SSW cluster on glosea. 

I would think that a fair call. Regarding the EPS means this morning predictable thay do not follow the det. run with the extensive ridging and the movement north of the upper low to the SSE. Thus the high pressure centre remains to the south west and the cold easterlies are further south over central and eastern France. This portends a transition to a more W/SW regime over the UK as has been indicated by the anomalies

Edited January 10, 2017 by knocker

[booferking]

Hot of the press.

[Seasonality]

11 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

as has been shown for sometime the gfs is pretty poor in its long range even this morning its haste shows.

ive got my money on the ecm ukmo and fax charts for shorter term.

because after the first wave of arctic cold from the north there will be more changes thats a cert.

i do believe there will be a scandi ridge and cut off low to our southeast but just enough to back colder air west, with the zonal train stating to slide under blocks establishing lower heights to the south with lows undercutting into france spain eventually and possibility of channel lows.

we will see the atmosphere respond to zero solar activity and a more weakened but south east tracking jet stream.

the models are starting to firm up the gfs is better than yesterdays,

but still believe it gets a little hacked of with shortwave developments and tries to rush things!

but the truth is both ecm and ukmo seem to slow things a bit, and in turn these two models are more realistic as blocks dont crumble sink or just get blasted away with ease so im sticking with ecm and ukmo.

You mentioned in another post that you feel a switch to an E-QBO may finally be in the offing due to some research you've done. Do you have any more to say on this as it could be very important at this point.

[Chris.R]

I think it's ON! 

 

[IDO]

We do need to be careful viz this ECM easterly. It is still way out in la la land as we know in these setups easterlies can vanish T120 or earlier. I still believe that GFS is nearer the mark. It has been slowly moving towards what the mean of a UK/Euro high rather than the ECM op going all in on a Scandi block.

The D10 means:

At D7 there will be what looks like a Scandi ridge building, but this does not look sustainable as the GFS has been highlighting and I assume the ens:

ECM at D7

No point looking that at isolation, context is that the PV is on the move and that is more likely to sink the ridge. The ECM op had a resurgent Russian high which is interesting but unsupported at the moment. We shall see...