Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[SMU]

Further to the above post -

The mean @ 114 shows considerable correction to the 'over the top' scenario forcing the low SE

clearly defined @500MB

expect some very good ENS this eve...

@radiohead good post

Edited January 9, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Ali1977]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Further to the above post -

The mean @ 114 shows considerable correction to the 'over the top' scenario forcing the low SE

clearly defined @500MB

expect some very good ENS this eve...

Yes the Op looks like being a big (warm) outlier

[knocker]

There seems to be much talk of easterlies on this evening's GFS but based on what? the evolution has pretty much favoured the GEFs anomaly earlier and although, with a stretch it moves as if it carryy on to an easterly, it actually goes the other way. Too much energy being generated upstrem running over the top of the Azores

[snowbob]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes the Op looks like being a big (warm) outlier

Still strongly believe that gfs Atlantic bias cannot cope with the extremities to the east this year

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Yes the Op looks like being a big (warm) outlier

But supported by the control....which is a downgrade on its 12z run.

All finely balanced i'm afraid.

[Snowman.]

Just now, knocker said:

There seems to be much talk of easterlies on this evening's GFS but based on what? the evolution has pretty much favoured the GEFs anomaly earlier and although, with a stretch it moves as if it carryy on to an easterly, it actually goes the other way. Too much energy being generated upstrem running over the top of the Azores

Please don't do this knocker, you know exactly why there is talk of Easterly.

 

 

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

No, I was thinking the same thing Nick. GFS very eager to push the vortex back east in the extended range. Now if this happens we don't want to be in a situation where we're caught with our trousers down, so to speak. We want one or the other...the easterly or a flatter pattern which amplifies again later on for the potential of N Atlantic ridging. The 18z is a blend of both and we end up with trapped Euro heights.

Yes the reason that I'm wondering about this is its the GEFS MJO signal which is most bullish about rushing out of the COD. The ECM seems less interested at going that fast. As you said we don't want a halfway house. The ECM does apparently have a better MJO verification. At this point I'd rather just have to deal with getting the easterly. So now the GFS is doubling getting on my nerves!

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Further to the above post -

The mean @ 114 shows considerable correction to the 'over the top' scenario forcing the low SE

clearly defined @500MB

expect some very good ENS this eve...

@radiohead good post

Some of the Ens are unreal steve.

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

But supported by the control....which is a downgrade on its 12z run.

All finely balanced i'm afraid.

The control is just the same starting conditions as the Op but run at a lower resolution. If there is something dodgy about the initial phase of the Op then that carries over to the Control too.

[Zakos]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

There seems to be much talk of easterlies on this evening's GFS but based on what? the evolution has pretty much favoured the GEFs anomaly earlier and although, with a stretch it moves as if it carryy on to an easterly, it actually goes the other way. Too much energy being generated upstrem running over the top of the Azores

I imagine because we have this from the ECM at 192 hours.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Yes the reason that I'm wondering about this is its the GEFS MJO signal which is most bullish about rushing out of the COD. The ECM seems less interested at going that fast. As you said we don't want a halfway house. The ECM does apparently have a better MJO verification. At this point I'd rather just have to deal with getting the easterly. So now the GFS is doubling getting on my nerves!

It's clear to see what the GFS wants to do in FI...which is lift low heights right out of the western half of the Arctic, more especially the Canadian sector. It's an awkward progression as upstream we see a clear move towards what you have described, but downstream we seem to be in some sort of hangover from the easterly attempt. As you say it's one or the other which is favoured or both ONLY if we can get that block to be a true Scandi high rather than more of a N Euro one.

[knocker]

Just now, Zakos said:

I imagine because we have this from the ECM at 192 hours.

Yes but the ecm has already been discussed I was merely referring to the 18z

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

The control is just the same starting conditions as the Op but run at a lower resolution. If there is something dodgy about the initial phase of the Op then that carries over to the Control too.

If it was that simple, the 12z op should have been a stunner too like the 12z control!

[Nick F]

Good EC ens again, some cold clusters, the mean below 5C much of extended, GFS op a warm outlier

[radiohead]

Just now, CreweCold said:

If it was that simple, the 12z op should have been a stunner too like the 12z control!

Not necessarily because once you get into longer ranges the difference in resolution can lead to bigger and bigger deviations even when the starting conditions are the same.

[Zakos]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Yes but the ecm has already been discussed I was merely referring to the 18z

Ah i see,

The 18z op and ensemble mean are far more suggestive of an easterly than the 12z

The 12z indicates a Euro high scenario. A far better pattern over southern europe on the 18z

A step towards the ECM scenario. Far from certain of course, but certainly potential and with the UK met office consistently suggesting the threat of an easterly, i can see why it is a popular topic of discussion.

 

Edited January 9, 2017 by Zakos

[Cheshire Freeze]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Not necessarily because once you get into longer ranges the difference in resolution can lead to bigger and bigger deviations even when the starting conditions are the same.

''The control is just the same starting conditions as the Op but run at a lower resolution. If there is something dodgy about the initial phase of the Op then that carries over to the Control too''

If it was as simple as this then whatever was causing the op to be too flat at 12z would be initialised with the control. Therefore the chances of finding that highly amplified pattern would have been slim. By your logic. 

I'll just maintain, the ensembles are generally useless IMO. If the OP can't stumble on the correct way forward in X amount of runs then pray tell how the 20 ensembles +control of GEFS will?

Edited January 9, 2017 by CreweCold

[Jason M]

The GEFS are best summed up by saying 'close but no cigar'.

A couple of good runs in there but a bit meh overall. GEFS have moved firmly away from an Atlantic solution and now suggest pretty much what ECM was hinting at yesterday i.e. cool continental drift. A full on easterly is still odds against albeit those odds have narrowed somewhat today.

Beware the.....................

 

 

[Rocheydub]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

''The control is just the same starting conditions as the Op but run at a lower resolution. If there is something dodgy about the initial phase of the Op then that carries over to the Control too''

If it was as simple as this then whatever was causing the op to be too flat at 12z would be initialised with the control. Therefore the chances of finding that highly amplified pattern would have been slim. By your logic. 

I'll just maintain, the ensembles are generally useless IMO. If the OP can't stumble on the correct way forward then pray tell how the 20 ensembles +control of GEFS will?

Ah, the chaos theory... My tuppencworth on the GFS lately. A stopped clock is correct twice a day. Let's just hope GFS is not more accurate than we're giving it credit for. It's been quite a while since the  GFS yanks beat the ECM and UKMO when the Euro and the Brexit models were allies!

I think we'll all agree, it's handled affairs in the West Atlantic quite poorly of late (I know were not at T-0 yet!)

[Derecho]

Admittedly the ECM has taken me by surprise a fantastic run 

Although the cold air outbreak in NE Canada is still a concern. The reason why ECM is so much better then the GFS 12z is because things develop more slowly on the ECM run. You can also see this to an extent on the 18z.

So at T72 we have this:

 - GFS

 - ECM

In both runs we have an 1040mb high to the west of the Azores. A bit further west of that high is a disturbance, west of the coast of Newfoundland (St Johns to be precise).

Now how amplified our northerly gets depends on the positioning of that tiny feature it really does! On the GFS it rolls over the top breaking the link with heights over NE Canada and flattening our North-westerly.

ECM meanwhile keeps that disturbance and bay and our northerly is more amplified. The difference is clearer at T96

 - gfs

 - ecm

What relevance does this have? Well later we get the ridging to Scandi and amplification of that northerly will help heights build over Scandi. If not then we will just get heights building to our ESE only.

Admittedly the 18z GFS is now at least keener to build greater heights to our east but a lot to be resolved and the key is a little feature less then 96 hours away!

So who is right, the ECM or GFS? I thought things would just flatten but the ECM and its ensembles have surprised me so hope is not lost yet.

[karlos1983]

 Another corr blimey set of ensembles. 

I feel something maybe afoot 

[Nick F]

Looking at the 18z GEFS postage stamps, plenty of easterly options in there to say that the GFS high res may continue to slide towards this kind of evolution tomorrow

just hope for sanity's sake that GFS and EC can settle their differences and come to a more mutual agreement very soon, as this is getting exhausting not knowing whether there's still a chance of an easterly or not, though odds are decreasing thankfully.

 

[Zakos]

GFS and ECM mean pretty similar at 216.

Encouraging to see the core of low heights around Italy on both models, I believe this is the best place to have low heights if you want an easterly flow, I believe it was nick sussex who said this was the case the other week.

ECM mean seems to indicate increased influence of the Russian high compared to GFS, could the strength/influence of the russian high be the game changer perhaps?

 

 

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Looking at the 18z GEFS postage stamps, plenty of easterly options in there to say that the GFS high res may continue to slide towards this kind of evolution tomorrow

just hope for sanity's sake that GFS and EC can settle their differences and come to a more mutual agreement very soon, as this is getting exhausting not knowing whether there's still a chance of an easterly or not, though odds are decreasing thankfully.

 

I couldn't agree more! Its always the same with an easterly with inevitably one model causing a drama and loads of exhausted NW members.

[Nouska]

22 minutes ago, Jason M said:

The GEFS are best summed up by saying 'close but no cigar'.

A couple of good runs in there but a bit meh overall. GEFS have moved firmly away from an Atlantic solution and now suggest pretty much what ECM was hinting at yesterday i.e. cool continental drift. A full on easterly is still odds against albeit those odds have narrowed somewhat today.

Beware the.....................