Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Alekos said:

Hi yes since following models 5 years or so , when it becomes within 7 days has always happened as pretty much shown from beginning

I would just love to see an Easterly retrogress back north for a change, not seen that happen in a long time, or even some movement back North in the models. Never seems to happen of course, the high always sinks.

Edited January 13, 2017 by snowray

[Ali1977]

The models have been very poor beyond a week this year, in a week they look full of potential - personally we are still in with a shout of something good.

[MR EXTREMES]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

The models have been very poor beyond a week this year, in a week they look full of potential - personally we are still in with a shout of something good.

Well said exactly my thinking still think there will be a hlb I'm not confident the models are right.

[Alekos]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

By definition they must struggle then.

Not right in the firing line of an Atlantic Jetstream and close to polar airmasses at the same time though.

Yes and what I see is models underestimate northern jet 

[snowray]

13 minutes ago, Alekos said:

Hi yes since following models 5 years or so , when it becomes within 7 days has always happened as pretty much shown from beginning

There you go, pretty well confirms what I have been saying. Thanks Alekos. 

[mcweather]

34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

and they are right - just suppressed further south  

the eps have done very well on the current drop in euro heights, counting down from 2 weeks out (as did the gefs )

the extended eps have had a bust on a couple of occasions this winter (generally the right pattern but further east ) and this upcoming 11/16 days period could go in our favour if we can get a wedge of heights to hold to our wnw and deflect the southern arm to our south. The mean and anomolies say otherwise at the moment. 

Don't nt shoot the messenger !

No disrespect intended BA  but That's an interesting concept  . I wonder how far south an easterly bound for the UK goes before its no longer an easterly bound for the UK

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, mcweather said:

No disrespect intended BA  but That's an interesting concept  . I wonder how far south an easterly bound for the UK goes before its no longer an easterly bound for the UK

The eps never fully supported a "direct hit" easterly. The ECM was always overly keen on the amplification to get us something decent and the GFS flattened the pattern too much with the UKMO going for an attempt but much further south.

 

Edited January 13, 2017 by SN0WM4N

[mulzy]

2 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

The eps never fully supported a "direct hit" easterly. The ECM was always overly keen on the amplification to get us something decent.

Indeed.  The eps have been very good this winter season.  We need to be cautious but I am very concerned about a potential return return to zonality in the 11-15 day period.

Edited January 13, 2017 by mulzy

[Jason M]

8 minutes ago, mcweather said:

No disrespect intended BA  but That's an interesting concept  . I wonder how far south an easterly bound for the UK goes before its no longer an easterly bound for the UK

That's very unfair. One part of the UK is going to cop it here. Gibraltar is looking good for an easterly

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=84&mode=0

 

[snowbob]

3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Indeed.  The eps have been very good this winter season.  We need to be cautious but I am very concerned about a potential return return to zonality in the 11-15 day period.

Just got to hope all this potential comes to fruition.

every run is loaded with it.

lets see what the pub run says

hoping the 0z might start to fill in the gaps

Edited January 13, 2017 by snowbob

[bluearmy]

Just checked the ECM ens means from last Sunday through till now and none ever supported an easterly of any strength. some showed a slack one (just). the ens mean has (not for the first time) been the best guidance

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just checked the ECM ens means from last Sunday through till now and none ever supported an easterly of any strength. some showed a slack one (just). the ens mean has (not for the first time) been the best guidance

I'm in no doubt in EPS are one if not the best guidance we have, but didn't matt Hugo tweet that all 51 members were showing an Easterly at one point last week?  I do think things aren't looking great going off what the more knowledgable and professional are saying though, so I won't get my hopes up.

Edited January 13, 2017 by Ali1977

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just checked the ECM ens means from last Sunday through till now and none ever supported an easterly of any strength. some showed a slack one (just). the ens mean has (not for the first time) been the best guidance

And hence why I never properly at any stage bought into a proper cold spell.

[Chris K]

16 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I'm in no doubt in EPS are one if not the best guidance we have, but didn't matt Hugo tweet that all 51 members were showing an Easterly at one point last week?

The problem I find with tweets is that they can too easily be taken out of context as they are only meant as snippets of information. He may have said all showed an easterly, but within that I'm sure there would have been many different types of easterly. Full on, slack, cold, 'sort of cold' you know.. 

Edited January 13, 2017 by Chris K

[Ali1977]

Anyway onto the pub run, at 156 the block is again forming to the North, all eyes on how this run maps it out.

[joggs]

1 hour ago, mcweather said:

These are presumably the same ens that gave full 51 member support to the full on easterly a day or so back.

mmmmmmmmm

Exactly and that's why I hope people don't take his tweets as a given.He's just reporting the latest happenings.

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Anyway onto the pub run, at 156 the block is again forming to the North, all eyes on how this run maps it out.

Differently. 

As I said, not a chance the ensembles have a clue how the longer range will pan out when there is so much complexity of the evolution, regardless of resolution.

[Dean E]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Differently. 

As I said, not a chance the ensembles have a clue how the longer range will pan out when there is so much complexity of the evolution, regardless of resolution.

One thing that doesn't seem likely right now, and that's an Atlantic onslaught from these sort of outputs. 

[mountain shadow]

The odds are we will get what we have had all Winter...UK High.

[SMU]

Evening All -

Im signing off from the MOD for a while as I think for now ive had enough of looking the models only to be let down at the last minute-

final scores on the doors for this recent period-

ECM 9 This model has been great all the way from day 10 when it had the Scandi ridge - the precision & accuracy has been top notch, sadly though the 'global' & indeed regional inaccuracy at day 6/7/8 has been the achilies heel for the UK being that day 4 & 5 ( from 6 & 7 ) have adjusted painfully about 300 miles south- nothing in the grand scheme of things but enough to change the surface temps in england & debilt upwards by about 4 degrees so what was once modelled at 0c daytime maxima & that 'perfect' continental winters cold is now just chilly 4/5c modified air...

 

GFS - 6

The  GFS never really bought into the Easterly at day 6,7,8 & had to be dragged back to the amplified pattern after being Way way to flat - once it got the longwave pattern correct about day 6 its been 'ok' ish but volatile

 

UKMO -9

This is the UKMETS winter- it was onboard amplification right from 168 however was always a toned down ECM & not 1 run had a decent easterly showing, even when GFS & ECM alligned for a day - the UKMO wasnt interested - well done!

 

Moving foward there is still ( Day 7-9) there is still a whiff of a continental flow perculating around the models - which sends the temps back down to 1-2c maxima - however I will put that on the back burner for now - I think we have a fair shot @ the retrograde getting far enough west to keep it cold to day 10 & within that as said enough scope to pull a gentle easterly- ( like feb 86 )

 

I guess the big perhaps HUGE news today is that the SSW forecast thats manifested in my zonal means charts over the next few days - I cant remember who I said to to watch the models it may have been @feb1991blizzard however the forecast is as follows -

SSW over Russia to hit the pole around 19th-23rd of Jan - The zonal wind at that time is expected to be around 40 M/S westerly which is a tad above normal - The deceleration curve of the 10HPA 60N zonal wind post warming is approx 8 M/S per day-

Therefor my forecast would be an official classification of a SSW ( zonal wind reversal @ 60N 10HPA ) for the last couple of days of Jan- or if its a double dip SSW where theres a big drop in winds before the final drop into negative the landing zone will be around Feb 1-4

The initial & very early assessment is that its a wave 1 induced warming not wave 2 this is because this is likely to be a vortex displacement not a vortex split- 

10HPA

likely blocking pattern is Greenland slightly west based with low scandi heights -

UK windflow therefor Northerly/ North westerly- poss NE if we are lucky.

There could be an immediate troposheric response circa very late Jan however the usual lagged response is more likely 7-10 days so early doors feb week 1 / week 2-

-EPO ridge & Greenland block is favoured-

until then unless we scrape deeper cold sooner or the retrograde at the end of the week is better im signing off MOD until the SSW comes to fruition...

Remember the dates SSW end of Jan....

S

 

 

 

Edited January 13, 2017 by Steve Murr

[feb1991blizzard]

A really insightful ECM eps London graph, I can think of 2 reasons for it, 1) its broken or 2) the mean and all the ensemble members stay below -2c right the way through the run.

Edited January 13, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Snowyowl9]

Further north a touch.

Dry and chilly outlook with sharp frosts,after a mild first half next week.

http://wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1681.html

[nick sussex]

Nice to see SM sign off with at least some positive news. Generally the strat forecasts are more accurate at longer range than the normal models. So another easterly saga comes to an end, the longwinded drama had a lot of ups and downs, unfortunately we finished on a down. Its incredible really just how difficult it is to get the right block in place, its either too far east or too far south.

The ECM and GFS do start going their separate ways as the former wants to build that high in Canada with the GFS less interested. The GFS could probably bore everyone into submission although overall its colder than the ECM, the ECM drags out a tease towards days 8 to 10 but never looks like delivering with any blocking too far west.

Hard to know what to get behind here, the ECM needs a large correction east and south. The GFS has the sort of output upto T240hrs that could switch more quickly to a more interesting set up with more amplification upstream. The issue with the ECM is that more amplification could simply end up digging the jet south to the west of the UK because its block is too far to the west.

If we get a quick response to that SSW then if you have a high near the UK that could get pulled nw with the troughing over Scandi pulled west, the ECM is grating on me and my loathing of west based negative NAO's probably means I'm giving that a harder time than perhaps its due. If we could get a correction se with that and the high more towards Greenland then that would be fine.

 

Edited January 13, 2017 by nick sussex

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Nice to see SM sign off with at least some positive news..

 

I'm a huge fan of Steve's, but him "signing off" has given me a big sense of deja vu!  I'm recalling the events of the end of Dec 2012 when he called so accurately what the models would be showing and how the ECM would have to come on board...and boy did it come on board!  (Was it  "That ECM"?). The things is, one it had come on board to give us across the board agreement on the Beast, one by one the models very quickly dropped the idea. I seemed to recall SM announcing then he would be taking a long sabbatical!

It seemed then that a winter full of potential was going to come to nothing. So very much like now in fact.  But, as it happened, the models soon picked up the potential for more wintry weather, not as drastic, but very welcome anyway, especially as it went on to materialize!. While we never entered any real deep freeze, there were episodes of snow I recall fondly and of course that March, during which a section of the A10 was blocked by drifting snow, snow that was still visible in the same spot well into April!

This winter has a similar feel to me.  Perhaps it won't end up being a historical one like it seemed it was going to be. But perhaps sooner than we might expect the weather will start doing what the models have been trying to drag it into doing and plays ball with some cold snowy opportunities at least if not deep freeze. I remember just over a week ago someone putting up some GFS perturbations that were a lot more promising than the GFS Op at the time in hope, and I remarked on one about how if the low depicted travelled south it could be nasty for the East Coast. Well that perturbation ended up being a lot closer to what we have now than any other run at that time I believe.  Which just goes to show...we don't know what's around the corner but we should travel there in hope  

Edited January 14, 2017 by Timmytour

[kumquat]

29 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

I'm a huge fan of Steve's, but him "signing off" has given me a big sense of deja vu!  I'm recalling the events of the end of Dec 2012 when he called so accurately what the models would be showing and how the ECM would have to come on board...and boy did it come on board!  (Was it  "That ECM"?). The things is, one it had come on board to give us across the board agreement on the Beast, one by one the models very quickly dropped the idea. I seemed to recall SM announcing then he would be taking a long sabbatical!

It seemed then that a winter full of potential was going to come to nothing. So very much like now in fact.  But, as it happened, the models soon picked up the potential for more wintry weather, not as drastic, but very welcome anyway, especially as it went on to materialize!. While we never entered any real deep freeze, there were episodes of snow I recall fondly and of course that March, during which a section of the A10 was blocked by drifting snow, snow that was still visible in the same spot well into April!

This winter has a similar feel to me.  Perhaps it won't end up being a historical one like it seemed it was going to be. But perhaps sooner than we might expect the weather will start doing what the models have been trying to drag it into doing and plays ball with some cold snowy opportunities at least if not deep freeze. I remember just over a week ago someone putting up some GFS perturbations that were a lot more promising than the GFS Op at the time in hope, and I remarked on one about how if the low depicted travelled south it could be nasty for the East Coast. Well that perturbation ended up being a lot closer to what we have now than any other run at that time I believe.  Which just goes to show...we don't know what's around the corner but we should travel there in hope  

And your point is?