Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[BARRY]

57 minutes ago, ShaftsburySnow said:

I know this is a bit off topic, but it's currently snowing in Shaftesbury North Dorset. I think this just proves that we look so far into FI chasing charts we don't look at all the little changes and things happening alot closer to the time 

don't think anybody's interested still licking there wounds over the UKMO

[feb1991blizzard]

Atlantic ridge sharpening earlier, this GFS run is going to be a corker!!!  -  Not sure where people are coming from saying the UKMO is better.

 

 

[karyo]

3 minutes ago, cold snap said:

UKMO at 144 might be cold ,very different to GFS,high pressure try's to pull out further west

It doesn't look cold to me. The high pressure is to the southwest of the UK with a slight flow from the west/northwest.

[radiohead]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

well the 12z at 144 hrs shows possibly the flatest atlantic high ive ever seen

really getting tedious now imo given greece freezes.hopefully mid month may see a change unless dry and frost is your thing

There's a low going to roll over the top at T162, so it's going to get even flatter.

FI is our only hope for something interesting. The next 7 days or so look like being a write off unless there are some dramatic changes coming very soon.

Edited January 1, 2017 by radiohead

[stewfox]

Colder air moves about 10 miles west ,should be over London in April

12z

6z

 

Edited January 1, 2017 by stewfox

[bobbydog]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Atlantic ridge sharpening earlier, this GFS run is going to be a corker!!!  -  Not sure where people are coming from saying the UKMO is better.

 

 

Heights weaker and further west on this run. Can the trough drop over us sooner? Will the ridge build behind? Will it make any difference to what actually, really happens? Probably not. But it's fun to watch anyway!

[radiohead]

Blizzard conditions for high ground in Scotland on this run. Looks like a good FI could be on the cards later in this run too.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, bobbydog said:

Heights weaker and further west on this run. Can the trough drop over us sooner? Will the ridge build behind? Will it make any difference to what actually, really happens? Probably not. But it's fun to watch anyway!

 look how sharp the ridge is now, Northerly  still but just a lot sooner.

[Daniel*]

Northerly on the way I sense folks...

[Mucka]

Happy New Year everybody!

Out with the old, in with New, what do you get? deja vu!

 

Edited January 1, 2017 by Mucka

[Man With Beard]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

Blizzard conditions for high ground in Scotland on this run. Looks like a good FI could be on the cards later in this run too.

The signal for heights to the west and troughing over Europe in the T200-T300 period is overwhelming. If it doesn't materialise, I will personally serve both the GEFS and ECM ens with a compulsory scrapping order.

[radiohead]

[booferking]

Looks like a toppler to me would rather wait later for a better outcome pv different this run..

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, booferking said:

Looks like a toppler to me would rather wait later for a better outcome pv different this run..

Barely registers as a toppler TBH (though may improve further into deep FI). However if it was offered to me as shown- straight NW'ly, -6 uppers etc I'd stick and pray I saw a few flakes fall out of it...you know it has been bad when this is the case!

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, booferking said:

Looks like a toppler to me would rather wait later for a better outcome pv different this run..

depends on the track of that low in E Canada heading towards Greenland, we could still get a reload and a stonking FI.

[There's a storm a coming]

Looks like the GFS has got a sniff of a pattern change and won't let it go...jet looking to move more from NW to SE and hopefully it can shift the "pesky" high pressure over europe

tasac

[Backtrack]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Barely registers as a toppler TBH (though may improve further into deep FI). However if it was offered to me as shown- straight NW'ly, -6 uppers etc I'd stick and pray I saw a few flakes fall out of it...you know it has been bad when this is the case!

With colder uppers on the way, plenty of cold to tap into to the NW on this run, that would make for some interesting lampost watching and you know it!

[Mucka]

No lamposts would be required for many if we got a decent slider. 50/1 for those who have more money than sense.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Majority of PV banished over to Scandinavian side....it's in situations like this where the UK an go COLD...shame it's 10 days+!

Good continuity vs ensembles in the extended range I guess..

Edited January 1, 2017 by CreweCold

[There's a storm a coming]

I think the GFS is going to follow the last couple of it's outputs in its FI. It seems to want to follow all of today's talk about the high pressure moving west and the lows filling over Europe...could be a cold outcome for us

tasac

[tinybill]

Just now, Backtrack said:

With colder uppers on the way, plenty of cold to tap into to the NW on this run, that would make for some interesting lampost watching and you know it!

i agree  if  the  gfs   f1  right  any thing  might  happen   talk about white  knuckle  ride  each run keep changing    their a lot of knifes ready!!!

[radiohead]

A fine line between a rainfest and a major snowstorm here...

Edited January 1, 2017 by radiohead

[feb1991blizzard]

Strange chart at 276 but bloody good.

[Daniel*]

Midlands north would get buried in FI a cyclonic cold picture very snowy in places. 

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Barely registers as a toppler TBH (though may improve further into deep FI). However if it was offered to me as shown- straight NW'ly, -6 uppers etc I'd stick and pray I saw a few flakes fall out of it...you know it has been bad when this is the case!

Have to say very snowy end pinch of salt and all that..