Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

[Singularity]

Fascinating that the mid-range progression has become so fast as to allow a clean transfer of the main vortex to Scandinavia with only shrapnel left over N America. Minimal time for cold air moderation allows for an unusually cold result across the U.K. for a N to NW flow. Notable that NW ties in with recent Fergie murmurings, albeit only just.

I'm usually wary of latching onto a solution that requires such progressiveness, but this season has often seen faster outcomes favoured across the N Atlantic so who knows - but ECM will really have to accelerate proceedings if it's to follow suit this evening!

[stewfox]

 

13 minutes ago, There's a storm a coming said:

Looks like the GFS has got a sniff of a pattern change and won't let it go...jet looking to move more from NW to SE and hopefully it can shift the "pesky" high pressure over europe

tasac

GFS FI should come with a health warning 

GFS 12z in FI 216

GFS 6z FI 216

 

Edited January 1, 2017 by stewfox

[EML Network]

Some amusing posts today, good to see that we've all kept our sense of humor and perhaps finally this time around we will learn not to get our hopes up when charts show cold solutions..but never really agree.

I think if the GFS only went out as far as +240 like the ECM does, then there wouldn't have been such excitement, I've not looked at the charts every day, but from what I did see over the past 2 weeks, I only recall seeing one ECM chart showing a really potent Scandi High and that was a +240 chart as well. 

Moving forward I still don't see any change coming any time soon, we're STILL stuck in an all too familiar pattern with MLB over the Atlantic, if we're not going to get cold weather, then I would prefer it to be dry, it sure beats last winters filthy conditions. 

 

IMO the past few days runs from the GFS are falling more and more in line with the METO 5-14 day update on their web site, which is for colder short lived blasts and milder interludes.

Considering that January is generally a wetter month and often very windy, IMO that we may well be in line for one hell of a cold Feb, IF the background signals stay more or less the same.

If we do get a SSW towards the later part of this month then....it could be fun.

For the time being, it's simply rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.....

once today's rain clears it's Cold and Dry through to +72 (UKMO)

By next weekend and not an awful lot changes (ECM +144)

I've just seen that the GFS 12z goes off into Fantasy Land once again later in the run, but the general pattern remains the same right through to the end of the run. 

I just can't see how this overall pattern is going to change, at least for the first half of Jan. 

It IS, however, far far better than last winter, especially if you like outdoor activities :-)

Happy new Year all

[bluearmy]

More inclined to see the gem evolution as closer to the route forward rebthe ens 

the gfs seems a bit quick and a bit too far west 

Edited January 1, 2017 by bluearmy

[Ali1977]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More inclined to see the gem evolution as closer to the route forward 

the gfs seems a bit quick and a bit too far west 

If the ENS follow suite then could we have a rapid pattern change about to happen , these have happened before and are often the best ways to get cold in for us coldies - as it saves a lot of dissapointment chasing FI all the time.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Ali1977

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

More inclined to see the gem evolution as closer to the route forward rebthe ens 

the gfs seems a bit quick and a bit too far west 

I've noted that the GEM has never once joined in with Scandi Highs/Greenland Highs this year. It's been fairly close to the mark for the "big" calls. Looks like potential for a mid-Atlantic ridge on its 12Z but might take a go or two.

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If the ENS follow suite then could we have a rapid pattern change about to happen , these have happened before and are often the best ways to get cold in for us coldies - as it saves a lot of dissapointment chasing FI all the time.

Control virtually identical to the op at 144

[Methuselah]

Right then, another run, another 'solution'...In the last 4 days or so (I only bother with the 06 & 12Z runs) Friday 13th has been 'progged' to get just about every conceivable weather-type possible. And, that's only the ops!

[Mucka]

I am really surprised by just how progressive output has become, it is the opposite of what I thought would happen which is that it would remain more amplified in the mid term.

Think I will just sit back and see what develops after the last fiasco.

Ha ha, and I think the Op is progressive

Then again this is also on offer at the same time-frame

Yup, sitting back.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I am really surprised but just how progressive output has become, it is the opposite of what I thought would happen which is that it would remain more amplified in the mid term.

Think I will just sit back and see what develops after the last fiasco.

 

Aye, that progressive we're being catapulted towards the next period of interest faster and faster- this is good as we don't want to be spending January stuck under SWlys and a resident Euro high

Edited January 1, 2017 by CreweCold

[johnholmes]

I rarely, if ever, look beyond 240h on GFS. So sticking to that.

So far no one seems to have made comment on the ridge building out of N America, from about 168h. If you look at the output for that side of the pond you can see how and why it has developed. A mobile feature but I suggest it is the reason that we have a bout of deep cold air predicted by GFS to swing over the UK from about 192h?

It has some support from the anomaly charts for that part of the world, although not very strongly. So maybe something for the cold lovers to watch on subsequent runs with GFS and to see if ECMWF and UK Met have it in their respective time frames down the line?

Just to note, several years ago, some of you will be able to quote I am sure, a similar even was the start of a longish deep cold spell into the UK-any ideas?

Not saying it is going to happen just suggesting it MIGHT be worth watching the 12z tomorrow to see if it still shows it 24 hours from 192 hours over the UK.

[Guest]

Well just when you think you can take no more of this FI chasing stuff the 12z gives us another reason to chase again.. for my location it would mean snow nirvana now can we please just get this into t72 range with total cross model agreement with no more flip flop horror shows.. is that to much to ask?

[bobbydog]

Lol, P12 gives us an easterly at 192

[Geordiesnow]

It is amazing just how quickly things have changed although in fairness to the UKMO, it was having none of it and as soon as the BBC forecasts suggested at a possible NE'ly and going against their own model, it gone totally pear shaped.

You can actually see just how close we were to a very cold NE'ly and it would of been a potentially classic snowy NE'ly also but the opportunity is gone and missed now and instead it looks like we will end up with a mild SW'ly although nothing too excessive.

Big opportunity lost and you do feel will we see the PV drop into Scandi significantly again this winter as its a rarity this happens in more recent winters. The height rises to the South has been a right pain in the backside this winter with killing our cold/snow chances and deflecting those deep lows around xmas time between Iceland and Scotland when some models were projecting those lows to be a bit further South.

Lesson is though, unless we actually see convincing height rises with a successful ridge towards Greenland within the 96-120 hour period then its just fantasy because shortwaves and whatever other spoilers will always pop up at some stage, see the same old thing time and time again unfortunately.

[James (Mammatus) Wyatt]

I know it's the 00Z but look at +240 on the ECMWF. Low pressure forming just south of Newfoundland could cause a sort of kink in the jet. High pressure north of it would would be forced further north and eventually, the high sat just below the uk might be displaced by this eastward traveling low. If the ECMWF went further than +240 it would be interesting to see where it puts that low. Anyway, will be interesting to see the 12Z when that comes out shortly.

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I rarely, if ever, look beyond 240h on GFS. So sticking to that.

So far no one seems to have made comment on the ridge building out of N America, from about 168h. If you look at the output for that side of the pond you can see how and why it has developed. A mobile feature but I suggest it is the reason that we have a bout of deep cold air predicted by GFS to swing over the UK from about 192h?

It has some support from the anomaly charts for that part of the world, although not very strongly. So maybe something for the cold lovers to watch on subsequent runs with GFS and to see if ECMWF and UK Met have it in their respective time frames down the line?

Just to note, several years ago, some of you will be able to quote I am sure, a similar even was the start of a longish deep cold spell into the UK-any ideas?

Not saying it is going to happen just suggesting it MIGHT be worth watching the 12z tomorrow to see if it still shows it 24 hours from 192 hours over the UK.

Just so I know where you are coming from John are you referring to this?

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I rarely, if ever, look beyond 240h on GFS. So sticking to that.

So far no one seems to have made comment on the ridge building out of N America, from about 168h. If you look at the output for that side of the pond you can see how and why it has developed. A mobile feature but I suggest it is the reason that we have a bout of deep cold air predicted by GFS to swing over the UK from about 192h?

It has some support from the anomaly charts for that part of the world, although not very strongly. So maybe something for the cold lovers to watch on subsequent runs with GFS and to see if ECMWF and UK Met have it in their respective time frames down the line?

Just to note, several years ago, some of you will be able to quote I am sure, a similar even was the start of a longish deep cold spell into the UK-any ideas?

Not saying it is going to happen just suggesting it MIGHT be worth watching the 12z tomorrow to see if it still shows it 24 hours from 192 hours over the UK.

Mid Dec 2010 perhaps?

[johnholmes]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mid Dec 2010 perhaps?

I honestly do not know

[radiohead]

There is no shortage of interesting GEFS members...

Edited January 1, 2017 by radiohead

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So the cold is off? No it isn't. Must be the MJO 

Scream trigger LP ...... one to watch

BFTP

Edited January 1, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Ali1977]

Another good set of GEFS, a handful at -10 or colder later on and a -5c mean again. FI though, so just keeps us on our wishful toes.

[sorepaw1]

Are we back on course for next Monday. 

With a gradual feed of wintery showers moving  south... I have my own theory why there's been a pause in the blocking on the last 48hrs.and the latter blocking disappearing .. it could be with the current  1040mb sat in the Atlantic and the models sinking it south to quickly .. but I won't pretend I'm an expert.....

If the blocking was to progress at T+204 hrs I'd like to think we'd have several days of wintery weather with squally ppn and winds.

All FI at the moment but steady as she goes.... Happy new year to all on here to readers and posters.

 

Edited January 1, 2017 by sorepaw1

[stewfox]

30 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I rarely, if ever, look beyond 240h on GFS. So sticking to that.

So far no one seems to have made comment on the ridge building out of N America, from about 168h. If you look at the output for that side of the pond you can see how and why it has developed. A mobile feature but I suggest it is the reason that we have a bout of deep cold air predicted by GFS to swing over the UK from about 192h?

It has some support from the anomaly charts for that part of the world, although not very strongly. So maybe something for the cold lovers to watch on subsequent runs with GFS and to see if ECMWF and UK Met have it in their respective time frames down the line?

Just to note, several years ago, some of you will be able to quote I am sure, a similar even was the start of a longish deep cold spell into the UK-any ideas?

Not saying it is going to happen just suggesting it MIGHT be worth watching the 12z tomorrow to see if it still shows it 24 hours from 192 hours over the UK.

Are you referring to this (circled) that was in 12z but not 6z ?

 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, stewfox said:

Are you referring to this (circled) that was in 12z but not 6z ?

 

i think hes talking about the ridge"high pressure" coming out of the usa

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Another good set of GEFS, a handful at -10 or colder later on and a -5c mean again. FI though, so just keeps us on our wishful toes.

Not as good as the 6z though, we need a good 18z to confirm this new trend.

 

EDIT : actually the continental low profile isn't dissimilar to that of the ens means just as the potential Easterly was slowly ebbing away.

Edited January 1, 2017 by feb1991blizzard