Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[blizzard81]

What happens to the channel low on the 144hr ecm chart? Surely it isn't the low off the Libyan coast just 24hrs later? Another unlikely day 6 to 7 transition from this model.

Edited January 30, 2017 by blizzard81

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'd actually say the next 24 hours is massive. If this chart can get from T144 down to T120...

then we we're back in the snow game by the end of next week.

Even if not, the direction looks much better for mid-February cold than a few days ago.

 

The 168 hr chart could be interesting,will we see the lp slip further SE?

[Eskimo]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

What happens to the channel low on the 144hr ecm chart? Surely it isn't the low off the Libyan coast just 24hrs later? Another unlikely day 6 to 7 transition from this model.

II wouldn't say it was unfeasible considering the jet dives south.

 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

II wouldn't say it was unfeasible considering the jet dives south.

 

That's the gfs

[Eskimo]

Just now, blizzard81 said:

That's the gfs

I'm aware, but it shows a very similar evolution.

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I'm aware, but it shows a very similar evolution.

But the same low only travels from southern Ireland to Belgium between 144 and 168 on the gfs. 

[keithlucky]

Latest from Liam Dutton all indications show temperatures go from above average to belw average by mid Febuary

 

[Singularity]

It certainly makes a change to have ECM being less enthusiastic about a ridge building west from Asia than GFS.

Of there was a Law of Fairness, that would mean we're set for the easterly

As it is though, ECM could be almost as quick as GFS in terms of getting a proper continental flow - but the cold air might lag behind by 2-3 days so it's not the best. Hopefully that kink in the flow interfering with the western flank of the blocking days 5-6 will prove spurious - but that is asking for a lot I know!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

I wonder if we can get any 12z ENS to top this chart ( my chart of the winter )

 

UKMO is potentially the significant one here Steve......and it is very very good at t144, indeed all the way

 

BFTP 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended has a deep low out in the Atlantic bit of rain for the south though not much

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

 

UKMO is potentially the significant one here Steve......and it is very very good at t144, indeed all the way

 

BFTP 

 

 

 

 

Crikey Fred...I'm sure that I had a dream, the other night, in which you had left NW...? If not, then - welcome back!

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has a deep low out in the Atlantic bit of rain for the south though not much

That low preasure on that chat has dove SE into France like i mentioned earlier,hp to the north of that?

Edited January 30, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[seaside 60]

3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has a deep low out in the Atlantic bit of rain for the south though not much

Why is this being shown, all it does is show half the picture and shows the Atlantic, not even all of the UK and nothing east of us, just because most of our weather comes from the west, most of the weather this autumn and winter it hasnt.
Its pretty pointless and really does nothing to add to the model conversation.

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Why is this being shown, all it does is show half the picture and shows the Atlantic, not even all of the UK and nothing east of us, just because most of our weather comes from the west, most of the weather this autumn and winter it hasnt.
Its pretty pointless and really does nothing to add to the model conversation.

It is an American storm/hurrcane map seaside 60 as far as i know.

Edited January 30, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

i see to-night  if  the  gfs  is  right  deep  into  FI    the  u.k.could  get snow from feb 10  onwards  !!!  dont tell the  express!!!

 

Edited January 30, 2017 by tinybill

[Eskimo]

5 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Why is this being shown, all it does is show half the picture and shows the Atlantic, not even all of the UK and nothing east of us, just because most of our weather comes from the west, most of the weather this autumn and winter it hasnt.
Its pretty pointless and really does nothing to add to the model conversation.

You're right, but it may show clues to blocking which is one piece of the puzzle towards colder air from the east. 

Edited January 30, 2017 by PerfectStorm

[seaside 60]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It is an American storm/hurrcane map seaside 60 as far as i know.

This has I am sure been asked before.
However can you kindly refresh my memory.
Why does the UKMO model show this but doesnt go beyond 144hr over our territory.

[SMU]

The UkMO 168 shows a second cycle of WAA with the UK in a COL - the Continental Easterlies wouldnt be to far away from the North sea at that point but impossible to tell from there !

Roll on the 18z 

Personally I think the 12z ECM is wrong on its allignment at 144- UKMO more favourable & smooth--e

S

ps - nice to see one cobra run in the ECM suite- will be more tomorrow !!

Edited January 30, 2017 by Steve Murr

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, seaside 60 said:

Why is this being shown, all it does is show half the picture and shows the Atlantic, not even all of the UK and nothing east of us, just because most of our weather comes from the west, most of the weather this autumn and winter it hasnt.
Its pretty pointless and really does nothing to add to the model conversation.

But you cant get the 168 on meteociel, this is the best view you can get, so you might as well use the charts if they are there, they can still show how far North the ridge in the Atlantic gets, this in turn could affect how much the trough digs south and whether we can get an Easterly down the line.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, blizzard81 said:

What happens to the channel low on the 144hr ecm chart? Surely it isn't the low off the Libyan coast just 24hrs later? Another unlikely day 6 to 7 transition from this model.

Looks OK to me 

the low becomes a disrupted trough over holland and much of the energy in the system disrupts se into the med (which is why it only gets as Far East as holland) 

[chris55]

Bit late catching up today.

If we take how the models have evolved the pattern in the last few days id say we have a "chance" of some cold air heading our way.

How the Atlantic vs the block is modelled in the coming days will be fascinating, impossible to call either way.

History and "our luck" would say the cold will not back far enough west to give us a meaningful cold spell, however while these synoptics are in play the chance of the "big one" are increased, and god knows we will get lucky one of these days and all the building blocks will come together and deliver that snowfest most are watching for.

Should be a fun time watching how things develop, plenty of ups and downs im sure.

 

 

[Ali1977]

Pub run special coming up, or sitting on the fence ref second week of Feb - latest EC monthly tonight will be interesting - hopefully it follows GLOSEA in which all members showing significant trop flow reversal. 

Still all to play for and nothing guaranteed but surely we have a chance of atleast another cold spell, a snowy one this time !!

Edited January 30, 2017 by Ali1977

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs/p has been dead for a couple of days and has woken up today but the 06z just rolling out now ins't pleasant viewing upto t240 hrs,though the 00z produced this in far la la land

[shotski]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs/p has been dead for a couple of days and has woken up today but the 06z just rolling out now ins't pleasant viewing upto t240 hrs,though the 00z produced this in far la la land

When's this model due to take over from the current GFS. Thanks. 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The gfs/p has been dead for a couple of days and has woken up today but the 06z just rolling out now ins't pleasant viewing upto t240 hrs,though the 00z produced this in far la la land

TBF though that wont have smelt the coffee yet, that's yesterday's 6z, so that's 5 runs behind where we are with the regular GFS.