Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[snowray]

What a cracking chart, almost there.

 

Edited January 30, 2017 by snowray

[feb1991blizzard]

Another stonking split likely high into the strat on the 12z, a Scgreenbaard ridge set to inflict a bit of the Corporal Jones treatment on the vortex - the old upward thrust!.

[Allseasons-Si]

Now the models are smelling the SSW coffee

ukmo,gfs and gem all look good and not in the realms of fl either

we await to see if ecm follows,interesting times ahead at last

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Another stonking split likely high into the strat on the 12z, a Scgreenbaard ridge set to inflict a bit of the Corporal Jones treatment on the vortex - the old upward thrust!.

Lol,that's a good combination there feb,not heard that one,i presume that's Scandi,Greenland and svalbald?

Edited January 30, 2017 by Allseasons-si

[winterof79]

Some body has left  the freezer door ajar methinks

[Ali1977]

GFS very close to amazing at day 10, this could be a quicker swing than even the METO think could happen - if indeed it does.

[Mucka]

GEM & GFS 10 day output looking good. Fingers crossed on this.

ECM for the full house?

[snowray]

It will be quite a shock to the system if them mauves make to the UK in early Feb, people wont know what hit them!

Edited January 30, 2017 by snowray
spelling

[jvenge]

Temp anomaly for T240 from the 12z.

 

[winterof79]

We have some sliding occurring  

 

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GEM & GFS 10 day output looking good. Fingers crossed on this.

ECM for the full house?

Add the UKMO building blocks at 144 and we are looking good.

Could this be "The BIG FAT FREEZE" we have all been pining for!?

[Seasonality]

What I like about this evolution is the slow and steady progression of cold air, leaving my location in central Europe nicely chilled again for a good long stretch. Even the UK gets a taste of the cold later on in FI.

[Seasonality]

Even the long suffering UK gets a little taste of proper winter out in la la land FI.

[AWD]

5 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Temp anomaly for T240 from the 12z.

 

That chart sums up this winter so far.

More snow for Benidorm maybe?

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, AWD said:

That chart sums up this winter so far.

More snow for Benidorm maybe?

This is day 10, too soon.  Try the same chart for day 12 and the cold is marching in.

[beefy201]

17 minutes ago, snowray said:

What a cracking chart, almost there.

 

And they will never materialize

[snowray]

Some nice snowfall totals there for most of us by the end of the run. More snow than Greece or Spain for a change!

Edited January 30, 2017 by snowray

[bluearmy]

the key to anything memorable is to get the lobe of vortex dropped in below the ridge to our east. the GEM evolution whereby the atlantic trough begins to detach from the main vortex and sink towards Iberia was supported on the eps extended to some extent. if the azores ridges across the top then we could well see advection of some of the Russian lobe across w Europe. hopefully the drop off in the strat vortex strength will allow the scandi ridge to maintain amplitude this time and not sink the cold to our se.

[Methuselah]

Right then...The 'seeds are sown', the 'building-blocks in place' and the SSW is looking promising...Hey guys - what can go wrong now!

[Seasonality]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Right then...The 'seeds are sown', the 'building-blocks in place' and the SSW is looking promising...Hey guys - what can go wrong now!

Spoiler shortwave.

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This is day 10, too soon.  Try the same chart for day 12 and the cold is marching in.

Day 12?  I think I'll give that a miss thanks.  Winter fatigue & all that.

Good Luck to you all though & enjoy the chase.

The GFS 12z certainly creates an interesting FI scenario, but as per the uncertainty regarding the forecast upper strat warming & what impacts it will have on the troposphere, I doubt any NWP operational model will be close to calling a correct LRF at this stage.

[Singularity]

Wait, did my first option, which I figured less likely, just materialise massively in the GFS 12z run?

 

Yep, it certainly did!

 

The only real difference with the jet stream is that there's a better defined northern arm. Seems ironic given what we're usually chasing - which by the way is there in spades (southern arm diving S of the UK) - but goes to show that the northern arm can be put to good use if it directs due N (or indeed west of N) and helps to build a well-defined block instead of a slack mess.

 

Try as it might, GFS can't quite detail this one. 

On the face of it this is the most exciting model 'jump' of the season so far, and UKMO seems to have done its usual trick of saying no initially and then changing its mind so things seem very promising at this moment in time - but years of unfortunate complications warn against popping the cork on the champagne until charts like the above-left are within 4, maybe 5 days range.

[Pembroke Dangler]

Il be getting some nice tail winds coming back from Bulgaria after my skiing break on 14th Feb il promise to bring some snow back with me but seriously if we can get the ecm to agree with the evolution the gfs and ukmo upto 144 I think we will be in the game for the coldest spell of the winter.

[Tamara]

28 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM & GFS 10 day output looking good. Fingers crossed on this.

ECM for the full house?

The 12z modelling so far illustrates the themes described in yesterdays post through the proposed GSDM evolution that ties in both extra tropical and tropical forcing in the troposphere with/interacting with a stratospheric destabilisation that requires an ideally placed split to maximise cold air advection potential in the extended period to the UK

It is key, as described yesterday, that the upstream Pacific amplification c/o -ve mountain torque is able to feed downstream through the thermal gradient being severed by conducive sufficient weakening of the dominant displaced lobe of Canadian vortex. If this doesn't occur then we will continue to be frustrated by secondary lows on a conveyor from the eastern seaboard of the US likely morphing into an Atlantic/UK trough which would limit any wintriness to northern hills

The GFS and GEM 12z is a very good example of that downstream amplification successfully occurring in the Atlantic which starts to sever the bleeding of energy from the Canadian vortex and thus enables a connection to the arctic heights to the NE with the jet tilted NW/SE and helping to back the heights and cold air advection westwards.

The tropical forcing imprint of MJO Phases 7/8 can be seen with the -NAO developing and with southerly tracking lows beckoning in deeper cold easterlies

This is the road to the ultimate "prize". NWP modelling has already shown on several occasions that the described themes are a viable and credible possibility. Lets hope that the programme follows the script.

 

Edited January 30, 2017 by Tamara

[Day 10]

12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Right then...The 'seeds are sown', the 'building-blocks in place' and the SSW is looking promising...Hey guys - what can go wrong now!

Dreamland FI

T 24HRS