Model output discussion 25th Jan - The final third of winter beckons..

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

GEM has literally gone from hero to zero regarding the spectacular easterly and sets up a zonal long term outlook!! 

GFS is mediocre, but still a chance of snow with the cold still getting here 

UKMO has gone for a SE'ly instead of an easterly. 

The mid term is looking decent, and I think from now on in, this is where we should be looking (72hrs - 150hrs). Onwards from this, the models have not got the foggiest of ideas of what is going to happen, hence the drastic flip around from the GEM! 

Stay calm folks, all is not lost yet. 

[nick sussex]

Don't you people sleep? lol

I have an excuse the wind woke me up, just getting the tail end of that  storm further north. Thought I'd have a quick look at the outputs . Sadly our GEM journey comes to and end and in typical fashion thats now gone from the best to a bit blah. The GFS I'm not having much love for, blows up the low to the sw and then takes it towards the Azores then looks very progressive in a word underwhelming.

The UKMO is  the best output so far, that has a better track of that low to the sw and a better shaped block and better upstream.

A convective easterly seems however to be less likely, a better chance though with the UKMO that we might see another chance later, in terms of snow difficult to judge with what the surface flow ahead of the precip will produce and how much cold there'll be to draw on over France. Currently any frontal precip looks towards Ireland and sw England.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

There is some good news about the GFS 0z, there is a massive stonking full on split SSW from right up top to bottom and its perfectly positioned for a stonking big Greeny tropospheric ridge to form and give us a 2013 style long protracted end to winter.

 

EDIT : maybe a bit optimistic with greeny but certainly Icelandic / scandi, whatever anyway it would likely finish the strat vortex off.

Edited February 4, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is some good news about the GFS 0z, there is a massive stonking full on split SSW from right up top to bottom and its perfectly positioned for a stonking big Greeny tropospheric ridge to form and give us a 2013 style long protracted end to winter.

Yes...it has been trailed on the CFS for yonks...

A Greenland ridge stands a better than average chance as we head towards latter Feb. We'll see if the 0z GEFS continue where the 18z suite left off at the tail end of the run.

Here's the latest offering for March...again excellent consistency with its SSW induced outlook, just as it was March 2013...

Edited February 4, 2017 by CreweCold

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Yes...it has been trailed on the CFS for yonks...

A Greenland ridge stands a better than average chance as we head towards latter Feb. We'll see if the 0z GEFS continue where the 18z suite left off at the tail end of the run.

Where do people get the CFS strat charts from please?

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Where do people get the CFS strat charts from please?

I don't know Feb, I don't use them...I just monitor the readily available CFS charts on Meteociel. I just had a sneaking suspicion when these March anomalies started appearing that it was a strat induced signal as they are exhibiting the same behaviour as they were during Jan/Feb 2013.

Out of interest, here's the pressure mean

Good scope for at least an Icelandic ridge there

 

Edited February 4, 2017 by CreweCold

[SMU]

Morning

a quick review of the 00z ENS trending 

* Colder mean around 144 from the East

* more importantly - The Italian Low is progged deeper & Further North into Europe decreasing the chances of a milder mix of air across europe-

hence more charts like this will start to spring up

* also mean scandi pressure trending @ 192 is a lot higher than 18z which is already slowing the atlantic pressure down...

lets not have another yesterday doom & gloom day!

pS look at how many ENS prolong the cold & get very cold again around day 8/9-

Ptb 2, ptb 5, ptb 6 (GH), ptb 11(GH),ptb 14,ptb 16,ptb 18, ptb 19,-

Edited February 4, 2017 by Steve Murr

[snowfish1]

To my mind this "easterly" is being progressively watered down with each gfs run sadly. Struggling to see anything sustained whereas just a couple of days back it looked like lasting a good week it's now lookin like a 3-4 day event. Also. That damn azoroslug looks like rearing its unwelcome head where it's not wanted,yet again, scuppering things somewhat. 

Steve Murr's post cheered me up lol go easy guys I'm learning here ... Cheers

Edited February 4, 2017 by snowfish1

[jvenge]

30 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

To my mind this "easterly" is being progressively watered down with each gfs run sadly. Struggling to see anything sustained whereas just a couple of days back it looked like lasting a good week it's now lookin like a 3-4 day event. Also. That damn azoroslug looks like rearing its unwelcome head where it's not wanted,yet again, scuppering things somewhat. 

Steve Murr's post cheered me up lol go easy guys I'm learning here ... Cheers

Hi,

Don't get too caught up on operational runs. With the GEFS, we are lucky, we can view all the ensembles. I think the GEFS have modelled it very well. 

[warrenb]

ECM is away. What will it bring. I am hoping for an extension to what the METO shows

[Seasonality]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There is some good news about the GFS 0z, there is a massive stonking full on split SSW from right up top to bottom and its perfectly positioned for a stonking big Greeny tropospheric ridge to form and give us a 2013 style long protracted end to winter.

 

EDIT : maybe a bit optimistic with greeny but certainly Icelandic / scandi, whatever anyway it would likely finish the strat vortex off.

384h chart I know. But hints of what you're alluding to?

[warrenb]

ECM same as METO at 144

[Weather-history]

7 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

384h chart I know. But hints of what you're alluding to?

Would that not fit in with the MJO heading towards phases 8 around that time?

Any MJO analysts around to give the possible impact of the MJO later in the month?

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

ECM same as METO at 144

Looks to be a few key differences to me? ECM stronger high and further West.

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

ECM same as METO at 144

Low looks further south to me, more of an easterly component to the flow...?

[warrenb]

To be honest even at 144 I am just looking at general pressure distribution 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Good ecm out to 144, not bitter cold uppers for everyone but from York North-10 850's, still very cold surface conditions for us, and an frontal ppn  that comes in will be snow, but no convection for the south on this one 

[Gustywind]

In terms of cold, ECM is great for those north of the M62, not quite so good for those in the south unfortunately. Need the cold pool 200 miles south so whole of UK gets the deep cold uppers.

Further in the run just too much energy in the northern arm of the jet, which makes the Azores high more influential and eventually kills off the easterly flow. Still cold though right out at 240, especially in the north east. 

 

Edited February 4, 2017 by Gustywind

[KTtom]

When you view the chart through wetterzentrale the issues regarding deep cold and snow potential is clear...the uk is bathed in yellows even when the easterly breeze is at its strongest....= dry and cold, but not especially so. The change to the orientation of the Scandi high  seems to have killed off any potential of a memorable cold snap.

 

Edited February 4, 2017 by KTtom

[TEITS]

8 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

In terms of cold, ECM is great for those north of the M62, not quite so good for those in the south unfortunately. Need the cold pool 200 miles south so whole of UK gets the deep cold uppers.

GEFS ensembles highlight this perfectly.

Much colder mean for Aberdeen compared with Kent.

You don't often see this with an E,ly.

[That ECM]

20 minutes ago, KTtom said:

When you view the chart through wetterzentrale the issues regarding deep cold and snow potential is clear...the uk is bathed in yellows even when the easterly breeze is at its strongest....= dry and cold, but not especially so. The change to the orientation of the Scandi high  seems to have killed off any potential of a memorable cold snap.

 

Why would this be the end of a cold snap? It could be the start of a prolonged cold period. There are many options on the table from there I would suggest. I think it would be correct to say initially it would seem cold and dry but from there we will have to continue to watch with interest.

Edited February 4, 2017 by That ECM

[KTtom]

25 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Why would this be the end of a cold snap? It could be the start of a prolonged cold period. There are many options on the table from there I would suggest. I think it would be correct to say initially it would seem cold and dry but from there we will have to continue to watch with interest.

Not saying it is mate, the charts I posted are currently the best on offer from the ops. A new signal might be picked up over the coming days to flip the pattern back to what was being shown a  couple of days ago...but as of this morning the latest op runs are not indications g anything other than frost and temperatures by day only slightly below average for most parts.

[Johnp]

All starting to look a little underwhelming this morning with agreement appearing on a SE'rly. 

I think the next hope is for the Atlantic to hold off and pressure to remain high to the NE and wait for another round of deep cold to spread westwards.

[shane303]

Another good set of charts this morning with cold air moving In from the east from Wednesday, models will struggle with the block but I think we have a better chance of an easterly this time. Some cold days some not as cold but a blocked pattern looks likely for some time. With any clear skies and light winds overnight we could be getting some very hard frosts. Perhaps some battle ground rain or snow in the far south west and west at times. 

[SMU]

18 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Not saying it is mate, the charts I posted are currently the best on offer from the ops. A new signal might be picked up over the coming days to flip the pattern back to what was being shown a  couple of days ago...but as of this morning the latest op runs are not indications g anything other than frost and temperatures by day only slightly below average for most parts.

That assessment is a fair way off -

I would say widespead -5c departures away from the Norm - maybe 6/7 in the NE-

The ECM in particular bringing plenty of snow to the NE & scotland- it cannot snow everywhere- every evolution has its focal points....

obviously the further south & west you go the signal is slightly muted, so for the SW / wales it may appear not so great, however many an easterly has started dry with -10c in the NE - to then get a bit of kink in the flow to transfer the deep cold & snow SW across the pennines towards wales etc...

dont be to downbeat- Also I would say 'significant' moves to a longer cold pattern today & with 96-120 hours to the Easterly- plenty of scope for incremental moves south, as well as major room for colder developments 168-216---

best

S