Model tweets

[knocker]

 

Edited June 11, 2019 by knocker

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[knocker]

 

Edited June 17, 2019 by knocker

[mb018538]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[knocker]

 

Edited June 19, 2019 by knocker

[Badgers01]

19 hours ago, Singularity said:

I don't know what location J. Warner's used there, but it's hard to fit that with other views of the overnight model runs including ensembles.

Unless he's referring to a specific locality, in which case it should have been stated, then I'm afraid that's some of the poorest quality analysis I've ever seen.

Sure, it's not going to be safe to bet on more than a brief hot spell in the UK until the start is a couple of days away, but at this time, the signal is for a multi-day intrusion of heat in some form or other, with a big majority of solutions producing this despite varying positions and alignments of the lows and highs in play. It's really something.

Says 52•n 1•e ! 

[Singularity]

5 hours ago, Badgers01 said:

Says 52•n 1•e ! 

Ah right, thanks. That looks to be just northeast of Colchester. A bit away from the expected plume focus (far-south) - yet the 850s in the ensemble plot are still surprisingly low for the ensembles and GFS (maybe it's the old GFS being shown there). 

Still, at least the analysis isn't of such poor quality as it had looked to me when I thought there was no location. Apologies to J. Warner if he reads this.

[Summer Sun]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Singularity]

On the other hand, those trades have been trending weaker and the WWB stronger, so I'm not writing off the MJO just yet. It's certainly having a hard time though!

[Man With Beard]

Met Office finally going all in! 

 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Met Office finally going all in! 

 

I wanted to post the update in the model thread but didnt want to get into trouble.

They have upgraded  to  now mentioning 'very hot'  ... they are on the fence for weekend tho so the 12z runs will  e important, hopefully GFS joins ukmo/ec ..

Edited June 22, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Guest]

I was about to post that Met Office link too!

Even with the stonking model output this afternoon, that tweet above is what I'm most encouraged by. Given all the extra data they have access too - confidence must be high 

[mb018538]

This is interesting - the bbc long range forecast is the opposite.....only mid to high 20s showing Tuesday and Wednesday. Nothing like 30-34c at all, they showed 30/31 as an absolute max. Someone will be very wrong here. You’d favour the met over the bbc now anyway?

[Singularity]

It's funny that they suddenly appear to have gone from very conservative to the other end of the scale; all the models we can see take until Friday at the earliest to turn the surface flow suitably away from the North Sea for that to become possible. So on that basis, a midweek mid-30s appears highly improbable at this time.

Either their in-house models are slackening or southward-turning the flow sooner than what we get to see, or this is genuinely a bit of a gaff with the timing of events.

Unless... they see the possibility of mid-30s in the West Country, which would be an astonishing event! You never know I suppose - if the surface flow was even slightly south of east on Wed or Thu, then that region could see a draw from N. France or Belgium and that would indeed permit some exceptionally high maximums.

Edited June 22, 2019 by Singularity

[Summer Sun]

 

[northwestsnow]

Upper 20s heading to low 30s...

That will do VERY nicely.

[Man With Beard]

Met office saying slight chance of June record going this week. Not buying the modelled temperatures. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/june-hot-spell-update

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Met office saying slight chance of June record going this week. Not buying the modelled temperatures. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/june-hot-spell-update

Having said that their Sat temps are not hugely different to the ecm considering we are talking five days away.

[Man With Beard]

35 minutes ago, knocker said:

Having said that their Sat temps are not hugely different to the ecm considering we are talking five days away.

I wasn't entirely clear if they were suggesting 32C as a maximum for the whole country or just the areas that were cooler before... if they are thinking a slight chance of the June record going, they must think there's a chance of 35/36C.

[knocker]

The French and German ones are under threat

France, 41.5 °C (21.6.2003) and Germany 38.5 °C (27.6.1947)