Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[snowray]

Chalk and cheese compared to the 06z from D7/8 onwards, spot the difference at D10.

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, snowray said:

Chalk and cheese compared to the 06z from D7/8 onwards, spot the difference at D10.

Lots of chopping and changing between runs regarding low res, all we know for sure is the week ahead looks benign with pleasant sunshine at times with temps into the mid teens celsius or thereabouts.

[Frosty.]

Some dramatic changes in low res on the Gfs 12z run, we have an Arctic shot with snow / ice and frosts..chance of a white Easter is still showing.. and then towards the end of the run shows very warm continental southerlies.

Edited April 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[weatherguru14]

26 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Some dramatic changes in low res on the Gfs 12z run, we have an Arctic shot with snow / ice and frosts..chance of a white Easter is still showing.. and then towards the end of the run shows very warm continental southerlies.

The last image  on the chart is only 16 days away.. I mean  its worth posting because it looks fab

[Frosty.]

6 minutes ago, weatherguru14 said:

The last image  on the chart is only 16 days away.. I mean  its worth posting because it looks fab

I agree it was worth posting, despite the timeframe..one has to maintain balance on here

[Frosty.]

Well..next weekend looks a cracker on the Ecm 12z, temps soaring!..and the following Monday & Tuesday too BBQ anyone?..even by T+240 it's still warm further south..shame it's not Easter next weekend if this is right!

Edited April 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[snowray]

You beat me to it, was about to post them charts, very mild indeed.

 

Scandi high and the prospect of anything colder now at D10+.

The Murr will no doubt have gone back to his Summer hibernation. 

 

 

Edited April 2, 2017 by snowray

[Frosty.]

One minute I'm posting arctic charts and the next very warm continental..April is a funny month!

[Summer Sun]

What a difference from this mornings ECM

It could be quite warm for a time with anything colder shoved back to the very end of ECM's run

[Frosty.]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

What a difference from this mornings ECM

It could be quite warm for a time with anything colder shoved back to the very end of ECM's run

Yes the Ecm 12z has come as a shock, there I was expecting a cold shot and instead it's showing an early april..i was going to say heatwave but low 70's F if that comes off!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes the Ecm 12z has come as a shock, there I was expecting a cold shot and instead it's showing an early april..i was going to say heatwave but low 70's F if that comes off!

cool but hate Fahrenheit, Celcius rules, need to use converter on my 6310i, fancy 21.10° Frosty!

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

cool but hate Fahrenheit, Celcius rules, need to use converter on my 6310i, fancy 21.10° Frosty!

You must be many years' younger than me then, IR252; I still remember most of the everyday conversions, courtesy of Bert Foord!

[knocker]

The difference between the 12z ecm and the 00z starts around T168 with the deconstruction of the upper trough IMO. In the 00z it cut loose the southern cut off low and pushed the main trough east over the UK which opened the door to the Atlantic. In the latest run it shifts the emphasis to the cut off low, dissipates the rest of the trough and initiates some WAA. So essentially it boils down to the handling of the deconstruction of the trough which is connected to the strength of the HP in the vicinity of the UK and the energy running around the top of the latter.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

You must be many years' younger than me then, IR252; I still remember most of the everyday conversions, courtesy of Bert Foord!

tend to associate Fahrenheit as American

[Methuselah]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

tend to associate Fahrenheit as American

Aye. I see what you mean.

[Frosty.]

Seriously wish it was Easter if the Ecm 12z is right for next weekend into the following week..amazing charts.

[Methuselah]

13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Seriously wish it was Easter if the Ecm 12z is right for next weekend into the following week..amazing charts.

Warm & sunny or crap!

[damianslaw]

Models in fair agreement for the foreseeable, but beyond the 168 hr timeframe we are seeing lots of chopping and changing, which is usually a sign they are struggling against a projected significant change. 

Sticking to the reliable, a generally fine week ahead but not especially mild for the time of year, near average temps,  chilly nights, threat of frost mid week, but also lots of dry sunny weather away from the NW which will see cloudier damper conditions at times. Its the end of the week when we see various outputs, I'm not convinced with ECM output this eve, quite likely an outlier, the general theme is for heights to build towards the NW as we see the trough pull itself apart and anchor down heavily over scandi, a northerly interlude looks highly plausible second week of April - bringing cold conditions for the time of year, and threat of wintry showers in the north - all fairly normal for April.

[Frosty.]

27 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Warm & sunny or crap!

Warm & sunny Ed..I mean pete

[Summer Sun]

UKMO shows pressure starting to lower later next weekend remaining driest for longest the further south & east you are

On the other hand, ECM keeps it dry for virtually all next weekend

 

[Methuselah]

38 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Warm & sunny Ed..I mean pete

Today Frosty...I mean karl?

[knocker]

The EPS ens means are not supporting the cut off low to the SW and the WAA but rather looking at quite a chilly start to next week with a NNW/N upper flow.

Edited April 2, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

cool but hate Fahrenheit, Celsius rules, need to use converter on my 6310i, fancy 21.10° Frosty!

I will try to call it celsius instead then..

Edited April 2, 2017 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I will try to call it celsius instead then..

-10C=14F, 0C=32F, 10C=50F, 15C= 59F...That should be sufficient for anyone to work it out!

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a change to colder and unsettled weather by the start of week 2 onwards, not like the 12z operational at all in the later stages.

Edited April 2, 2017 by Frosty.