Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards

[Julian 777]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A lot of the fun is the anticipation. I felt a bit withdrawn after the cracking storms on May 26th/27th, as there was nothing much to do, until the next time. I love all the posting and banter in here, as a few 'genuine' pixels start appearing on the radar.

Me too buddy ,hers hoping for something to just pop up out of the blue...Its happened before

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

Looking at the latest BBC video forecast I look to be in a good position for storms tomorrow and into tomorrow night. I've got everything crossed!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

I'll try and stay open minded about tomorrow - all being well got the afternoon free and I'm off on thurs 

I really don't want anyone in the southern half of the country to get too hopeful - especially with this incessant heat going on - you'll just end up grumpy!

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, > mark said:

Rest assured tho Nick ...... we'll get bu**er all behind the Chilterns Barrier! :-(

We grow them south of the Thames, they build and start to initiate in the chilterns and BOOM! Milton Keynes cops the lot!

That said we had one cracker last year, Took a hole out of Waitrose and blew the windows in at the school . After that we got naff all!

Stiil you gotta hope!

[TJS1998Tom]

4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I'll try and stay open minded about tomorrow - all being well got the afternoon free and I'm off on thurs 

I really don't want anyone in the southern half of the country to get too hopeful - especially with this incessant heat going on - you'll just end up grumpy!

I'm hoping we get some here, UK Weather Updates on Twitter's latest Storm map shows us being in the 'Violent' area. But fingers crossed

[Derecho]

14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Hi @Quicksilver1989

that will be two days(yesterday and the day before),there was a storm earlier in Lincolnshire

They aint got nothing on the June 1994 storms though 

Still we have another 2 and a half months to get it right, it has to sometime.

[weatherobsuk]

Something is trying to break the cap in SE Anglesey, watching and waiting to see..

[weatherobsuk]

Interesting METAR from Manchester this evening aswell

http://en.allmetsat.com/metar-taf/united-kingdom-ireland.php?icao=EGCC

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Something is trying to break the cap in SE Anglesey, watching and waiting to see..

Hehehe - you've got to let it gooooo!

[sparky1972]

9 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I'm hoping we get some here, UK Weather Updates on Twitter's latest Storm map shows us being in the 'Violent' area. But fingers crossed

dont know if its worth getting the camera ready for tomorrow/thursday,  met office had storms for here but they have now gone from the forecast.

[TJS1998Tom]

1 minute ago, sparky1972 said:

dont know if its worth getting the camera ready for tomorrow/thursday,  met office had storms for here but they have now gone from the forecast.

I'll be getting mine ready and charged tomorrow afternoon and do an all nighter just incase

[StormChaseUK]

The fact there are sferics over southern ireland is a healthy sign.  I wouldn't be too discouraged yet..

[Allseasons-Si]

9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

They aint got nothing on the June 1994 storms though 

Still we have another 2 and a half months to get it right, it has to sometime.

That wasn't the point i was trying to make,you said that there had been three consecutive days without a storm when there was one today

[Ben Sainsbury]

I have a funny instinct that we could see some active thunderstorms very early tomorrow morning. 

These charts here just shout activity for me for us Southerners.

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,gfs_,_eur21.png,cape,mucape,icape,layer,lfc,mulfc,el,icon10,omega,pvort,pvort2,difadv,kili,spout,lapse,lapse2,the700,thetae,mixr,mtv,gusts,stp,srh,srhl,pw,hail

[Summer Sun]

 

Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 21 Jun 2017 - 05:59 UTC Thu 22 Jun 2017

ISSUED 20:58 UTC Tue 20 Jun 2017

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper ridging (and anticyclonic flow) will still be in place across much of the British Isles on Wednesday, but as an Atlantic upper trough approaches it will advect an EML (elevated mixed layer) above a very warm and reasonably moist surface layer (afternoon dewpoints near 19-21C, ignoring the GFS which continues to over-estimate surface dewpoints, and hence grossly exaggerates modelled CAPE). 

----------------------------------------------------

Elevated thunderstorms will possibly be ongoing / developing at the beginning of this forecast period, especially over northern England and southern Scotland, with general areas of showery precipitation with embedded lightning moving erratically NE-wards across the remainder of Scotland.

----------------------------------------------------

Farther south, assuming plenty of insolation then strong heating will yield 2,000 - 3,000 Jkg-1 SBCAPE in a notably capped environment - the greatest instability developing during the second half of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Many areas will remain dry under such conditions, but it is just possible that enough forcing from a combination of sea breeze, topography, surface troughing and falling heights aloft during the evening hours may be able to overcome / erode the cap to allow explosive but probably fairly isolated thunderstorm development to occur. High-res models continue to offer little support for surface-based thunderstorms given the strength of the capping and dry layers in the mid-levels, but that said elements of medium-level instability release over northern England could become rooted in the boundary layer, and / or surface-based convection could develop.

Given the lack of any useful guidance (aside from 12z ECMWF, GFS has been consistently too moist in surface layers on recent days and continues to overplay the thunderstorm risk) it becomes hard to highlight any specific areas at risk with any confidence - but overlapping of favourable ingredients would suggest one or two isolated but severe thunderstorms would be possible during the late afternoon, more especially evening, hours across N or E England. Such storms could rapidly organise into multicells or perhaps supercells, capable of producing damaging hail up to 4-5cm in diameter, strong gusts of wind and, if surface winds can remain ideally backed, perhaps also a tornado. A severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out elsewhere in England, but in general capping is likely to be too strong to be overcome.

It is quite possible that very little, if any, notable surface-based convection occurs - but worth stressing should it occur, then it could be quite noteworthy and potentially disruptive.

----------------------------------------------------

Overnight, rapid height falls as an upper trough approaches combined with a cold front will allow medium-level instability release to help generate some elevated deep convection with the potential for a few thunderstorms - the risk beginning over SW Britain initially, then running NE-wards with time through the early hours. The exact track, extent and timing is very uncertain at the moment depending on the phasing of the upper trough with residual high WBPT plumes across S Britain, and further updates / tweaks may be necessary to the forecast.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2017-06-21#sthash.arAdUnhF.dpuf

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Sferics to the SW of Ireland, here it comes!! 

[Arnie Pie]

Staying up till tomorrow for my annual date with the Solstice.....I can feel a time lapse coming on

We have a chance tomorrow our first thunderstorm of the year 

[sparky1972]

12 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:

I'll be getting mine ready and charged tomorrow afternoon and do an all nighter just incase

here is hoping i see storms back in the forecast tomorrow morning, then i might get camera out, lol

[Mapantz]

A double yolker! Om nom nom

[Weatherman662]

Loads of little blobs of rain on the radar down south . Hopefully these will develop into storms if I'm being optimistic.

[Mesoscale]

Anyone ever seen a high risk for storms in the UK? 

[Thunderstruck]

Ok then. So going by the latest Convective Weather Forecast literally anywhere could see a storm tomorrow. Not getting my hopes up, and think it's very unlikely that I'll see anything tomorrow, but you never know...

[Marcus_surfer]

Some pop up suprises ahead next in 24 hours me thinks

[Weatherman662]

I'm not expecting a storm tomorrow because of the cap, so I'm not getting my hopes up  . Though if we do get one ill be surprised at least . 

[Weatherman662]

Storms will probably form over here and then travel to the moderate risk areas