Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Frosty.]

30 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well i suppose its all about opinions, this week is 14/15 deg these parts and lots of rain,im not sure how else to describe that for late June?Anyway,like i said, fingers crossed for some improvements in July

I can't disagree with your assessment, it sums things up perfectly. We are paying a heavy price for the recent hot weather..it's swings and roundabouts really, in the UK we have to take the rough with the smooth.

As for July, I will have to have another chat with mystic meg

Edited June 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Sorry i meant after today scorcher

Well i suppose its all about opinions, this week is 14/15 deg these parts and lots of rain,im not sure how else to describe that for late June?Anyway,like i said, fingers crossed for some improvements in July

Wednesday does look horrible to be honest. Long term though I think it could be worse. But it's certainly not what we'd want in an ideal summer.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean tells an unsettled story for the rest of this week including the weekend with spells of rain interspersed with sunshine and showers with suppressed temperatures when it's cloudy and wet and breezy / windy at times. Into next week, some respite for the s / sw as pressure rises somewhat but generally it's an unseasonably cool changeable / unsettled outlook for the next 10 days at least, worst further n / nw.

Edited June 26, 2017 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

if GFS or ECM long range charts come off we might aswell write the summer off. So much for ENSO Neutral remaining

[Frosty.]

13 minutes ago, 40*C said:

if GFS or ECM long range charts come off we might aswell write the summer off. So much for ENSO Neutral remaining

It's all a bit depressing model wise but I think those of us who enjoyed the recent heatwave are hoping by the second half of July and into August that we will see a return of summery weather.

[ANYWEATHER]

Good Morning Folks !  The outlook for Summer Lovers may not going to plan, but Plenty of warm weather and hot sunshine between the unsettled spells. For Farmers and Growers , its great news plenty of precip to water the crops

[knocker]

A quick word about today.

The borders and north west England could see up to, possibly more, 40mm of rain this morning before it moves away NE NI rain clearing before heavy showers.West Midlands and the south west mainly cloudy and dry and south east upwards thundery showers developing with a possibility of localized torrential downpours. From the gfs

The formation of the complex area of low pressure which is indicated by the above continues and the UK remains under it's influence until 00z Saturday before it eventually moves away east giving way to ridging NE from the Azores. Thus a few days of showers, sometimes heavy, and sunny intervals with temps variable but generally around average.

From this point it's a familiar battle between the Azores and the energy tracking east from upstream and I've wittered enough about this recently so take it as read. A small low does manage to track east over the weekend affecting Scotland, before fronts associated with a major depression to the NW edge into the UK on Tuesday.

So in a nut shell unsettled for the rest of this week before becoming more settled and drier over the weekend albeit with a N/S bias before the Atlantic sticks it's oar in next week. But as that is subject to revision best left at the moment.

[mb018538]

Not a great deal to shout about really.



A fairly narrow band of ensemble clustering throughout, indicating temperatures around average, with sunshine and showers.

[Summer Sun]

Not too bad from ECM by Saturday we'll have lost the 4 days of rain a row some parts are going to get

[knocker]

The 6-10 with the ecm. Certainly could be worse

Edited June 27, 2017 by knocker

[mb018538]

Indeed, the ECM looks much better by the end of the run. Let's keep an eye on further developments as it is the best performing model....perhaps it's on to something in the longer term.

[Summer Sun]

Still some differences in the high res models for tomorrow

[knocker]

The ridging from eastern Europe and the cut off low in southern Europe is interesting negating to some extent the influence of the Atlantic trough and allowing the Azores to build. Needless to say the GEFS is having none of it apart from some pressure rises over northern Scandinavia.

Edited June 27, 2017 by knocker

[knocker]

Apart from possibly some lessening of the trough influence nothing from this morning's EPS suggests any significant changes to the outlook in the near future

[Man With Beard]

Looking into July, hmmmm, typical summer situation for the UK. With lower heights around Iceland extending their influence close to the UK, odds are that changeable weather will dominate for most, with better periods for all at times especially the SE. But a big caveat - better heights starting to establish across Scandinavia. See D8/D15 mean charts below for GEFS (today 00Z, fairly representative of ensembles as a whole) and ECM (yesterday 12Z).

      

The thing about those better heights over Scandi is that, once established, they often extend their influence back towards the UK the moment that the Atlantic struggles to make progress, leading to something hot from the south. See ensemble member 20 for an example:

The ECM by T168/T192 is showing signs of the same:

So definitely worth watching out for a short hot period sometime between D7 and D15.

With the Scandi heights not really being strong enough to call a block at the moment, any period of heat next week will probably be brief. But I get the sense that the Scandi heights are just starting out, and may well build as the month goes on. That could lead to a heatwave here by mid-July as it will probably force a southerly influence on us eventually. Watch the mean charts over the next week to see if that bump in the lines over Scandi gets more pronounced - if it does then a block may be getting established!

[Singularity]

Great most MWB 

To me it feels like we have some changes in the forcing from the tropics - namely the reduced negative forcing on GLAAM - compared to original model projections which are filtering through but until the ECM 00z this had not proved marked enough to produce a robust change in the direction of events.

As GEFS/GFS has more negative GLAAM bias longer-term, I expect it to be more resistant to a change of tune away from a rather flat jet periodically bringing troughs uncomfortably close to the UK.

Still, I've not seen enough yet to make a call for widespread settled conditions to establish next week, with 'gently changeable' feeling like an apt summary for the time being.

[mushymanrob]

well the noaa anomaly charts have been suggesting pressure rising over scandinavia for a couple of runs now, so there is growing evidence for this i guess.
 

[Summer Sun]

The 06z says high to high pressure for a short time

 

Temperatures would slowly rise towards the mid-20s quite widely for England and Wales

[Britneyfan]

And you can always add a few degrees onto the GFS temp chart, so 25 or 26  

[DR(S)NO]

My local forecast not currently showing an appetite for Summer for the next week or so....

Hoping your post proves more accurate SS

[Frosty.]

I sincerely hope the Gfs 6z is right about next week with a return of warm sunny weather..fingers crossed for Wimbledon!

Edited June 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

It's a really grotty spell we are in at the moment with periods of heavy rain and  ugly complex trough (s) over the uk but there is a chink of light at the end of the tunnel vis the weekend which looks drier and brighter but not guaranteed to be dry, saturday currently looks the better day and then next week, as I mentioned in my post above could be a lot more summery under a high pressure cell or strong ridging with plenty of sunshine and temperatures into the low to mid 20's celsius..here's hoping! 

Edited June 27, 2017 by Frosty.

[Singularity]

There I was expecting a stubborn GFS and it went and junped even further than ECM!

A blend of the last two GFS runs and the ECM 00z presents a fairly decent picture away from the Northwest. 

Ideally of course we'd see the GFS 06z serve as a foundation for the actual outcome but this still seems a bit overly hopeful at this stage. Some good signs emerging though

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Singularity said:

There I was expecting a stubborn GFS and it went and junped even further than ECM!

A blend of the last two GFS runs and the ECM 00z presents a fairly decent picture away from the Northwest. 

Ideally of course we'd see the GFS 06z serve as a foundation for the actual outcome but this still seems a bit overly hopeful at this stage. Some good signs emerging though

The Gfs 6z operational has offered fine weather fans an olive branch vis next week, hope it continues to firm up..I think following all this rain we will deserve a settled and warmer window of weather..will the weather gods smile on us?..time will tell

[johnholmes]

I think that looking 7 days or so into the future with run by run GFS is in summer much as in winter fraught with the prospect of being disappointed more times than being pleased!

The anomaly charts have, well 2 out of the 3, moved to the idea of height rises in the north Scandinavia region. However, the main trough is still too close to the UK to prevent further surface features running into the UK area. Possibly a slight indication in the 10-14 day period of a not uncommon NW-SE split becoming evident. To me no real signal yet for any return to a week or so ago.

sorry no charts but you all know where to look, I hope!